India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 03B HUDHUD 121500Z nr 18.4N 82.5E, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 121014 1521z (UTC)

 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM Hudhud

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0314.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03B_121130sams.jpg

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 18.0N 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 82.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 19.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 21.7N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 24.3N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
TC 03B MADE LANDFALL NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM AT ABOUT 12/07Z AND HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. A 121108Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS. TC
03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD (03B) currently located near 17.5 N 83.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

News Reports

At least three people were killed Sunday when Cyclone Hudhud slammed into India’s east coast packing winds of almost 200 kilometres (125 miles) per hour, ripping down power cables and forcing roads and railways to shut.

Around 370,000 people living along the eastern coastline were evacuated before the storm hit around 11.30 am (0600 GMT) on Sunday morning, as authorities tried to avoid mass casualties. “We have had three deaths since this morning,” said Natrajan Prakasam, a Disaster Management Commission official in the worst-hit state of Andhra Pradesh in southeast India. Two people were crushed by falling trees, while the third was killed when a wall collapsed in heavy rains, he told AFP. India placed its navy and coastguard on high alert ahead of the storm and advised residents to stay indoors as the cyclone passed by, warning of large waves known as storm surges. Some flights were cancelled while bus and train services in the worst affected areas were suspended. The head of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) said the main highway in the port city of Visakhapatnam, which was in the eye of the storm as it hit, was strewn with fallen trees and electricity pylons. “The two big challenges facing the NDRF team are clearing roads and evacuation and rescue work,” he added. India’s eastern coast and neighbouring Bangladesh are routinely hit by bad storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread property damage. The region is populated by fishermen and small-scale farmers, many of whom live in flimsy huts with thatched roofs or shanties.

Sunday, 12 October, 2014 at 09:50 UTC RSOE

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 OCTOBER 2014
—————————————————-
PART I:-STORM WARNING
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘HUDHUD’ OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS. IST OF YESTERDAY,THE 11TH OCTOBER
2014 NEAR LATITUDE 16.2ON AND LONGITUDE 84.8OE
ABOUT 230 KMS SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AND 340 KMS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR(.)IT THEN MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND LIES CENTERED AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY,THE 12TH
OCTOBER 2014,NEAR LATITUDE 17.4ON AND LONGITUDE 83.8OE
ABOUT 60 KMS EASTSOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST CLOSE TO VISHAKHAPATNAM
WITHIN A FEW HOURS(.)
PART II:-WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG.E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 90 DEG E:S/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 90 DEG E:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)2-3 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N AND W OF 85 DEG E:-SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)LESS THAN 0.5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
S-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE N OF 16 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 85 DEG E:S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)E OF 85 DEG E:SSE-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)2-3 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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