East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

Hurricane NORBERT* 14E

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

(*CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. SEVERAL MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATIONS NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1414.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 21.7N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 22.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 23.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 25.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 27.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 28.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2014 3:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT (14E) currently located near 22.0 N 111.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa – Extract

By: Jeff Masters , 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014/ wunderground.com

“Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5C (85F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific’s tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it’s hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 – 5″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

……Jeff Masters” / wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0239

WTPZ24 KNHC 050239
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 050530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 42N172E 988 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…360 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N177E 976 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM NE…840 NM SE…480 NM SW…AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 57N158W 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 660 NM E AND 1020
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 1009 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N141W TO 54N148W TO 45N149W. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF THE
FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N W OF 165E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N163E 1007 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 167E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 59N
BETWEEN 137W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND
154W AND FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 172W AND 179E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 164W AND
170W.

.HIGH 48N138W 1030 MB DRIFTING NE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N136W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N142W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 53N178W 1016 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 41N160W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N155W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE…100
NM SE…90 NM SW AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 23.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 25.7N 115.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 27.1N 117.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 28.5N
118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 29.0N
118.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 00N124W TO 02N119W TO 03.4S97W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0200 UTC FRI SEP 5…
.HURRICANE NORBERT…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W…CONTINUES FROM
15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W…THEN ITCZ 12N131W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 29N143W 1012 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N146W 1014 MB. WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 29N147W TO
26N150W.

.LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N159W 1007 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 28N
W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N161E 1006 MB. FRONT FROM LOW TO
28N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N163E 1007 MB. FRONT
FROM LOW TO 27N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.

.HIGH 25N170W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
30N155W AND FROM HIGH TO 24N175E TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N173W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N170W TO
27N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 178W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 170E.

.ITCZ FROM 09N140W TO 10N152W TO 07N170W TO 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

3 thoughts on “East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

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