Mexico/ Bay Of Campeche: Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L): 022100Z near 22.0N 97.0W , moving W at 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 020914 2104z (UTC)

Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L)

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) North Atlantic Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING…AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB…29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY (AL05) currently located near 22.0 N 97.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Dolly in Gulf of Mexico; Watching Eastern Pacific

Stu Ostro / wunderground.com
Published: September 2, 2014
– Tropical Depression Five upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly

– Center relocated about 100 miles northwest of previous NHC estimate

– Tropical Storm Warning issued for the coast of Mexico centered on Tampico

GULF OF MEXICO: TROPICAL STORM DOLLY

Hurricane Hunters investigating Tropical Depression Five this morning found winds easily strong enough to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Dolly, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Perhaps most interesting is the finding by the Hurricane Hunters that the center had reformed about 100 miles west-northwest of the previous estimate from NHC. Strangely NHC located the center at 22.4N 94.4W at 2 am (based on early aircraft information) but the Hurricane Hunters just estimated the center about 80 miles southwest of this near 21.5N 95.3W. Regardless, the center is jumping around, not all that uncommon of developing systems. The core of Dolly will still remain south of the U.S.

(MORE:�Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast)

Strong northerly winds aloft continue to blow thunderstorms to the southeast of Dollys center. Winds at 3,000 feet about 50 miles southeast of the new circulation were measured at 60 mph by the Hurricane Hunters, which reduces to about 45 mph near the ocean surface. The instrument on the bottom of the plane is also estimating winds at the surface in the 45-50 mph range, so NHC is setting the winds at 45 mph for now. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow as Dolly approaches the coast of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for a small stretch of coastline centered on Tampico in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Only modest strengthening is expected before it moves inland on Wednesday. The primary impact will be heavy rainfall as the system approaches Mexico late Tuesday.

Previous update: The system will be guided westward under a strong dome of high pressure to the north. It only has a 24-48 hour window over water before moving inland over Mexico. Regardless of development, the difference in pressure between Dolly and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will establish a strong southeast to northwest flow sweeping toward the Texas coast, which will bring abundant tropical moisture to the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the middle part of the week.

(MORE:Glossary of Tropical Terms�|�New�NHC�Storm Surge Maps)

The main impacts in the U.S. will a high risk for rip currents along the lower Texas coast, including South Padre Island, and the potential for heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

/ wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2043

WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH=

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1608

FZNT01 KWBC 021608
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 02
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 03
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 04

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL INLAND 59N77W 979 MB. FROM 60N TO 62N
W OF 61W AREA OF E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W
OF A LINE FROM 63N64W TO 60N57W TO 53N50W TO 46N60W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 60N74W 982 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
62N65W TO 60N56W TO 57N54W TO 50N61W TO 46N65W. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF FRONT N OF 60N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT N OF 56N AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF
FRONT S OF 56N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 63N60W 992 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 420
NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 52N52W 1002 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
61N47W TO 57N47W TO LOW CENTER TO 45N54W. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 62N37W 990 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
420 NM S AND 150 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 62N29W 1000 MB. FROM 55N TO 59N
E OF 39W AREA OF W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.FROM 53N TO 63N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW E OF AREA 62N29W
ABOVE.

.LOW 38N34W 1010 MB JUST E OF AREA MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 43N53W 1011 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N50W 1015 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 44N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W AND FROM 41N TO 44N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 62N60W TO 57N48W TO
46N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
60N48W TO 52N53W TO 42N54W.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N57W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N59W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 49N52W 1021 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N44W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N35W 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N68W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 23.4N 96.5W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
02 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…30 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…100 NM SE QUADRANT…0 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.8N
100.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s