East Pacific: Tropical Depression Karina 11E: 252100Z near 17.2N 127.6W, moving E at about 5.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 250814 2102z (UTC)

Tropical Depression KARINA 11E

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION……NHC

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 127.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI…1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. KARINA
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1114.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.2N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.7N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985 NM
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ21 KNHC 252035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 251730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN
179W AND 165E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N174W 1008 MB. FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN
165W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N167W 1007 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
151W AND 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 44N155E 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 36N TO 43N
BETWEEN 160E AND 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 46N157E 996 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 540 NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N158E 995 MB. FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN
172E AND 164E…AND OVER FORECAST WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
48N160E TO 52N170E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N162E 992 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 178E…AND N OF 50N W OF 171E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 59N156W 1000 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 49N TO 60N BETWEEN
145W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1007 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN
140W AND 156W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1014 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 46N154W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN
152W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N142W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N130W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 135W AND 142W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 51N
BETWEEN 134W AND 139W…AND FROM 41N TO 52N BETWEEN 160E AND
178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N138W…FROM 49N
TO 54N BETWEEN 169W AND 175E…AND FROM 39N TO 49N W OF 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 172W AND
168E…AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N162E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N143W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N141W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 44N173W 1029 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N164W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 37N171W 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 27.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.9N 114.8W 932 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 25
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE
QUADRANT…300 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W 120W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 20.1N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
480 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.2N 123.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…170 NM SE QUADRANT…110 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 540 NM FROM CENTER WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.5N 128.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL MARIE NEAR 28.0N 132.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.5N
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 128.0W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 25 MOVING ELSE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W
AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.4N
126.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.7N
125.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 25N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
22N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 23N135W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N
W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N138W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N142W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 10N175W 1008 MB MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N179W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N142W TO 11N147W TO 11N156W AND ALSO FROM
09N161W TO 09N169W TO 10N175W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 147W AND W OF
169W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.

.ITCZ FROM 08N179W TO 06N175E TO 08N166E TO 06N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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