East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

Hurricane Marie 13E

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 251433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 114.8W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB…27.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY…AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS…AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1314.gif

 

 

WTPN33 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.6N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 20.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 21.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 24.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 28.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 30.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.0W.
HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ23 KNHC 251433
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…….240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 251130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N167E 1006 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 420 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N177W 1011 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 360
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N171W 1014 MB. FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN
157W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 46N157E 998 MB. WITHIN 600
NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N160E 993 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 60N165W 1000 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 540
NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 145W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 150W AND 133W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.LOW 45N157W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW…FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 133W AND 141W…AND WITHIN 180 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 33N174E TO 38N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N144W 1017 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N133W 1015 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 57N
BETWEEN 134W AND 146W AND FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 163E AND 173E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 161E AND
179E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 NOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N142W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 44N176E 1030 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 27.

...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.3N 113.9W 932 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 25
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…270 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE QUADRANT 300
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 510 NM S QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 19.6N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…220 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E AND 540 NM S
QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND
NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT…150 NM NW.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER… EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W…INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N…AND FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.7N 126.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 27.8N
130.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.2N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 128.4W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
25 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM QUADRANT. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N
TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER…ELSEWHERE AND REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.7N
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.6N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 26N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N133W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N
W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 28N137W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
200 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N103W TO
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N143W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N143W TO 11N149W TO 11N158W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 07N E OF
160W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N167W TO 08N177W TO 10N172E TO 07N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 01N W OF 160W.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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One thought on “East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

  1. 000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 290833
    TCPEP3

    BULLETIN
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
    200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

    …MARIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL…
    …SWELLS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
    SUBSIDE TODAY…

    SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…27.6N 132.5W
    ABOUT 985 MI…1585 KM WSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    ——————–
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST. THE
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…
    22 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
    IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
    FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ———————-
    SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY
    ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
    COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
    CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS. FOR MORE
    INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    ————-
    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE

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