East Pacific/Mexico: Hurricane LOWELL 12E: 211500Z near 20.0N 122.1W , moving NW at 3 knots(NHC) – Updated 210814 1633z (UTC)

Hurricane LOWELL 12E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT….NHC

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI…1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY…
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1214.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 211600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 19.7N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 122.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 20.7N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 21.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 22.8N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 23.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 25.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.3N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 28.5N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 122.3W.
HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM WEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

Other

EASTERN PACIFIC – WestPacWx
Large Lowell‘s circulation also has a large center as shown by the satellite image.No significant changes to previous days’ expectations of a steering interaction between Lowell and smaller Karina.

An increase in rainfall is expected in Arizona tomorrow; that is primarily due to the upper low which has been over SoCal, though it could tap a bit of Lowell’s moisture.

Speaking of wiggy model runs, there have been some showing the system that was near Panama, and is likely to eventually become a tropical storm, maintaining some strength all the way up to a position not far off the coast of northern California.  That’s a long way off and we can cross that bridge if we come to it …

(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

 

 METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431 

WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 211149 CCA
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII…CORRECTION PART 3
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 40N160E 1004 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N168E 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N178E 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 43N W OF 178W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N169W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 660
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 51N135W 1013 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 38N167W 1013 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N162W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 53N174E 1002 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND 600 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N176E 1005 MB. BETWEEN 480 NM AND 660 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N175W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW
EXCEPT WITHIN 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.FROM 36N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 133W AND 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 128W AND 141W NE WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 127W AND 148W E TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 47N
BETWEEN 161W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
52N156W TO 42N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 174W AND
152W.

.HIGH 40N143W 1027 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N146W 1031 MB.

.HIGH 51N152W 1025 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N143W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 62N167W 1023 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 64N166W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 63N173W 1022 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 48N140W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 23.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.6N 136.2W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.1N 135.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 133.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…30 NM NW QUADRANT AND
50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 22.5N
128.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 28.5N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 19.7N 121.9W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM W SEMICIRCLE…300 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 111W AND
130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.3N 123.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 420 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N
TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.4N 126.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF
CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 30N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOWELL NEAR 25.3N 129.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 27.0N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.3N
134.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N103W 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W
AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.S OF 03S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU AUG 21…

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM S OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL….NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90
NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO
09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND
60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI…CORRECTION
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N161W 1011 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 06N170E TO
05N171W TO LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
159W AND 163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 06N169W TO
12N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N170W TO 11N166W.

.LOW 14N146W 1010 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
09N159W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 156W AND 159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N147W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N156W TO
11N152W TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N148W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N160W TO
LOW.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N174E TO 27N169E NEARLY
STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 28N174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 17N154W TO 20N154W TO 21N153W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 28N162E 1015 MB MOVING SE SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM 29N160E TO
HIGH TO 25N174E TO 30N165W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 26N165W 1014 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 149W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 25N E OF 145W.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 27N160E TO 21N166E…S
OF 13N BETWEEN 166E AND 172E…AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 172E
AND 179E.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

 

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http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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