Caribbean/Lesser Antilles: Tropical Depression Two: 221500Z near 12.6N 48.0W, moving W at 15 knots (NHC FL) – Published 220714 1840z (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD..

….INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM..NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center – NHC

000
WTNT32 KNHC 221433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI…1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW…BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB…29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

About The Lesser Antilles

MARITIME

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT22 KNHC 221431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

AT 1500 UTC…TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
48.0W OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED
THROUGH WED…BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU
DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS
DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED…WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N38W TO 12N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N HINDERING
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO THE
E PACIFIC AT 8N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 3-6 HOURS.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
5N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO
FROM 11N49W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN E OF 29W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A
1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 86W-93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF…AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA…THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA…AND EXTREME SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

…HISPANIOLA…

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH WED. EXPECT ACTIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF CUBA W
OF 77W DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 82W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 77W WITH NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
T.D. TWO IN THE DEEP TROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 27N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1559

FZNT01 KWBC 221559
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 23
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 24

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 42N52W 1008 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW EXCEPT
WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N40W 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
E AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 46N BETWEEN 35W AND A LINE FROM 34N52W TO
46N45W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 45N33W 1000 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W
AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 33N39W TO 49N37W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N61W 987 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
S…360 NM N AND 420 NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW E OF AREA 55N29W 1000 MB MOVING N 10 KT. FROM 47N TO 65N
BETWEEN 35W AND 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.N OF 60N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 64N60W TO
56N50W AREA OF SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 58N61W DESCRIBED IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N73W 1007 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM
S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 53N50W TO 60N60W TO 67N55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 50N49W TO 55N48W TO
60N57W TO 67N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 45N47W TO 55N42W TO
64N62W.

.HIGH 45N58W 1019 MB MOVING S 15 KT WILL TURN E AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N59W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N49W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 31N38W 1026 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N73W 1023 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 24.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING…
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
70W AND 82W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO
17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 12.6N 48.0W 1012 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 22 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT NEAR CENTER. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 13.3N 53.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 14.8N 60.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 86W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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