Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

https://i1.wp.com/www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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