Eastern Pacific/Mexico: Tropical Cyclone developing. Invest 94E 091400Z nr 15.9N 102.3W, moving NW at 3 knots (JTWC) – Updated 090614 1700z

THIS IS OUT OF DATE NOW, NO LONGER VALID

GO HERE https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/eastern-pacificmexico-hurricane-christina-cat4-03e-121230z-nr-16-4n-106-9w-moving-wnw-at-7-knots-intensifying-nhc-updated-120614-1400z/

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (Invest 94E)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH  –JTWC

HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO – NHC

MEXICO BEWARE!

Weather Underground

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Last Updated 09/06/2014, 13:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Location 15.9 102.3W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 45KPH

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW…AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.

…DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD…PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…WITH VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS…KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE…A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W.
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS…WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE…SHIFTING N-NE WED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

 

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane: (Mon 9 June 2014 1749 UTC) EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – System 94E is rapidly developing- The National Hurricane Center noted that System 94 E is now a well-defined low pressure system and is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight.
The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, which, NHC noted, will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

This GOES West satellite imagery from 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) shows System 94E off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9414.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/94E_091500sair.jpg

WTPN21 PHNC 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

000
FZPN03 KNHC 091535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 11.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1007 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N107W 1002 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND 45 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 127W AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 83W AND 93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W AND S OF 01S
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 124W AND
138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 21N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC MON JUN 09…
.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W THEN
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W…NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF AXIS E OF 88W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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