Socorro/ Clarion/ Mexico: Hurricane AMANDA (CAT3) 271000Z nr 14.2N 112.2W, moving NNW at 4 knots(JTWC) Restrengthens unexpectedly(NHC) – Updated 270514 1108Z

HURRICANE AMANDA (CAT3)

Clarion, Socorro & Mexico beware!

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…(NHC)

(Maritime section always at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ31 KNHC 270845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI…995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

MEXICO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0114.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 271000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270600Z — NEAR 14.0N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 14.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 15.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 15.8N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.4N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 17.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 17.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 112.2W.
HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z
AND 281000Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

AXPZ20 KNHC 270930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 540 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING
NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 08N91W TO 12N103W…AND
FROM 10N114W TO 1009 LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N127W TO 05N133W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W…FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W…AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

…DISCUSSION…
ASIDE FROM THE INTRIGUE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH REGARDS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…TWO AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
EXISTS…ONE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WATERS AND THE OTHER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AMANDA. THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND
THE ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ALONG WITH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WHICH EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL GENERATED
FROM AMANDA. THE MIXED SWELL GENERATES AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W AT 27/0600 UTC THAT
EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO A RANGE OF MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE OTHER
AREA OF SEAS ABOVE 8 FT IS GENERATED FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL COMBINING WITH N-NW SWELL EMANATING FROM AMANDA.

OTHERWISE…AMANDA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 17N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION N OF 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND
116W…VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AMANDA. TO THE NW OF AMANDA…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N125W PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR TO EFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER…THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MOVING IN OVER THE SW CONUS BY THURSDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /

WTPZ21 KNHC 270845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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