Indian Ocean: Ex-Tropical Cyclone 24S Jack 220900Z nr 18.1S 95.5E, moving ESE at 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 220414 1300z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclonesAUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Issued at 2:50 pm WST Tuesday 22 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning (IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm April 22 tropical low 17.9S 95.2E 30
+6hr 8 pm April 22 tropical low 18.8S 95.8E 50
+12hr 2 am April 23 tropical low 19.5S 96.2E 70
+18hr 8 am April 23 tropical low 19.8S 96.3E 95
+24hr 2 pm April 23 tropical low 20.0S 96.3E 120
+36hr 2 am April 24 tropical low 19.7S 96.6E 155
+48hr 2 pm April 24 tropical low 19.6S 97.0E 190
+60hr 2 am April 25 tropical low 19.2S 97.2E 225
+72hr 2 pm April 25 tropical low 18.9S 96.9E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

 

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 22 April 2014
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was located at 2 pm WST near 17.9S 95.2E,
that is 660 km south southwest of Cocos Island and moving southeast at 20
kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist
in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with
a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning
(IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne. (G: See below in Maritime section)

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2414.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/24S_220530sams.jpg

 

 

 

PGTW 220900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008 Final Warning
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
220600Z — NEAR 17.8S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 95.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 19.0S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 95.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-WEAKENED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND, AS SHOWN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION, IS LIKELY INFUSING DRY
AIR. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF THE RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SPECIFICALLY, A 220309Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WHILE A 212324Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BUT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15
FEET.//
NNNN

 

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-255.65,-23.98,1071

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S095E999:11:00
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0658UTC 22 APRIL 2014

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal nine south (17.9S)
longitude ninety five decimal two east (95.2E)
Recent movement : southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots southwest of the centre
Central pressure: 1002 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
The system has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity, however, gales may
persist in areas to the southwest of the centre.

FORECAST

REMARKS

Please refer to the High Seas Warning IDY21000 issued by Weather Melbourne for
further warnings.

WEATHER PERTH

Ocean Wind Warning 1

40:2:1:04:30S085E25045:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0622UTC 22 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous southeasterly flow associated with Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” 1002 hPa
near 17.9S095.2E. Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” forecast 1001 hPa near 18.8S095.8E
at 221200UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.5S096.2E at 221800UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.8S096.3E
at 230001UTC and 1001 hPa near 20S096.3E at 230600UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces High Seas Gale Warning (IDW23100) issued by
TCWC Perth.

Area Affected
Bounded by 23S093E 20S090E 18S091E 18S093E 21S095E 23S099E 24S098E 23S093E.
Forecast
SE quarter winds 30/40 knots within 210nm of low in southwestern quadrant west
of 096E, extending throughout area by 221200UTC. Winds increasing to 35/45 knots
within 90nm of low in southwest quadrant. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

All other warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com
http://www.passageweather.com/maps/sindian/mappage.htm

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s