Indian Ocean/ Australia: Post-Tropical Depression 15 (22S) EX-IVANOE 060600Z nr 28.1S 87.8E, moving SSE at 27 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 060414 1332z

Tropical Cyclone Ex-IVANHOE

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) (RSMC LA REUNION)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JTWC)

ZCZC 060
WTIO30 FMEE 060635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20132014
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 96.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2014/04/08 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 101.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 104.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/04/09 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 106.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 107.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, IVANOE HAS TAKEN A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH A PERSISTENT WARM CORE WITHI
N THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAYERS UP TO 600 HPA AND A MASSIVE COLD AIR INTRUSION WITHIN THE UPPER LEV
EL LAYERS INSIDE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CLOUDY SUMMITS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY WARMING. ON THE LATEST CC SATELLITE PICTURES, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE BEGIN TO APPEAR WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETACHING UNDER THE POWER OF THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-
SHEAR.
THE WINDS STRUCTURE IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE FAST MOTION SPEED AND THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE PRESENT I
N THE EAST.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES PRESENT IN ITS NORTH AND EAST AND AN APPROAC
HING POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON A RAPID SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL TOMOR
ROW MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE SST DECREASE VERY RAPIDLY AND BECOME VERY INSUFFICIENT.
FROM MONDAY IN THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT AN EASTWARD THEN NORTH-EASTWARD TRACK BY TERMINATI
NG ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION AND BY FILLING UP. IT MAY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WEST OF AU
STRALIAN COASTS.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2214.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22S_052330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
060000Z — NEAR 25.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 30.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 33.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK
FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS
ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 061500Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

ZCZC 985
WTIO20 FMEE 060619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/04/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENT
RE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/06 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGESTS WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NNNN

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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