Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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