Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
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Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
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Destructive Winds
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Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
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The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014
 

Tropical Cyclone Gillian 

Conditions dated 25/03/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion direction : south , speed of 7 knots ( 13 km / h ) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

Predicted 24- hour , date 03/26/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion Direction : West , moving away from the territory of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 30 knots ( 55 km / h )
 

Prediction 48 hours , date 03/27/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 20 knots ( 35 km / h )
 

Prediction 72 hours , date 03/28/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 15 knots ( 30 km / h )
 

IMPACT OF WEATHER IN INDONESIA :
Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
– Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

4 thoughts on “Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

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