Philippines: Tropical Depression “CALOY” (94W) 211200Z nr 08N 128E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Published 210314 2128z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” 

(Invest 94W)

PHILIPPINES: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE (PAGASA)

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 21 MARCH 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CALOY” was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East of Surigao City (9.6°N, 127.0°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “CALOY” is expected to be at 50 km South Southeast of Cebu City by tomorrow evening and at 25 km South of Cuyo Island by Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it is expected to be at 200 km North Northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

PSWS#1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Visayas:Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Iloilo and Antique

Mindanao:Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Northern Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
Potential Impacts of the Winds

•Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky

•Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.
•Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas due to the Northeast Monsoon.
•The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Japan Meteorological agency


Analysis Chart (JMA) (Click image for animation/source)

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 43N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 150E TO 45N 153E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 39N 161E 34N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 35N 155E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 46N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 49N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 180E EAST 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 31N 120E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 177E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Depression Caloy Over the Southern Philippines

– WxPacWx

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Outlook

“Tropical Depression Caloy was named Friday morning by PAGASA following a night of organization and intensification from the

TD Caloy

low pressure center in the Philippine Sea.

Despite this storm being branded a name (the third PAGASA named storm already in 2014) the forecast has changed very little from what we have been discussing all week.

Expect the low to come ashore in Northern Mindanao throughout the weekend but based on IR satellite imagery a unskilled observer might think Visayas is seeing landfall.

That is because of the large moisture inflow in to the storm along Caloys northern Periphery. This will mean the highest risk areas for flooding, landslides and high winds will be north of the storms track in the areas displayed in red blow.

Caloy1 Click the Link for a Full Bulletin Update

Futhermore gale force winds are anticipated up and down the eastern seaboards of the Philippines this coming weekend. Not directly associated with Caloy though but associated with Caloys interaction with a ridging high pressure area pushing in out of China. This is producing a “high gradient induced wind field”. Winds sustained up and down the coastline are likely to be around 50kph. Even in Manila farther north expect breezy conditions this weekend.

Impacts

Impacts

The rain will be the larger impact though from the storm though. Some areas as much as 500mm could fall with generally 100-200mm in the forecast. As mentioned before there is a risk of flooding and landslides in these conditions. Residents in low lying areas and near large rivers should take extra caution with this weekend as persistent rains push on shore.

The video update below is a whole 1 minute long, why? Because my internet cut out and never came back on. So you got what you got right there…

Stay safe out there everyone” – //westernpacificweather.com

NASA’s Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines – phys.org

NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines
The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of low pressure “System 94W” coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21. Credit: NRL/NASA(via phys.org)

“The tropical low pressure area centered just east of the southern Philippines appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 21. System 94W appears to be developing and the Philippine authorities have already issued warnings on the system locally designated as “Caloy.”

The MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 94W coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21 at 5:25 UTC/1:25 a.m. EDT. The image revealed a circulation with the center over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The image showed bands of thunderstorms from System 94W’s western quadrant was draped over the eastern Mindanao region (southern area) of the Philippines and bands of thunderstorms from the storm were over the waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Warnings were posted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on March 21 at 5 p.m. Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines today, March 21.

Signal No. 1 means that sustained winds of 18.6-37.2 mph/30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours. In Visayas, those areas under Signal No. 1 include: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental and the southern part of Negros Oriental.

In Mindanao, Signal No. 1 is in effect for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental, and the southern part of Negros Oriental. For additional updates from PAGASA, please visit: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//

On March 21 at 5 p.m. local time, PAGASA noted that the center of System 94W was located near 8.9 north latitude and 127.8 east longitude, about 310 km/192.6 miles northeast of Davao City or at 170 km/105.6 miles East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 94W a high chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day. Meanwhile, PAGASA expects the low to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days and cross the southern Philippines.” –

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

WTPH RPMM 211200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 21 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ZERO NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ZERO NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 231200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 45N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 152E TO 47N 156E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 41N 165E 37N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 36N 158E 30N 152E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 48N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 51N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 30N 122E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 180E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 211800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
SYNOPSIS (211800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS BRINGING GALES TO THE
WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SEAS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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