Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 70 issued 1407 UTC Wednesday 19 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 19 1 22.2S 157.7W 110
+6hr 6 pm March 19 1 23.3S 157.4W 140
+12hr 12 am March 20 1 24.3S 157.7W 165
+18hr 6 am March 20 1 25.2S 158.2W 195
+24hr 12 pm March 20 1 26.1S 158.7W 220
+36hr 12 am March 21 2 28.2S 159.8W 280
+48hr 12 pm March 21 2 30.2S 160.7W 345
+60hr 12 am March 22 1 32.2S 160.9W 430
+72hr 12 pm March 22 1 34.5S 161.1W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1355 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 990HPA CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S
157.7W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 24.3S 157.7W MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 26.1S 158.7W MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 28.2S 159.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 30.2S 160.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY TWO for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/1846 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MATIARO AND MAUKE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA
AT 191800UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA AT 200600UTC.

FOR MANGAIA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL BE ISSUED AT 192200 UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20P_190532sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 23.5S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 25.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 27.1S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 29.5S 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MIKE (20P) currently located near 20.5 S 159.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Avarua (21.2 S, 159.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Pacific High Seas Forecast

Issued by MetService, NZ, at 8:36pm Wednesday 19 Mar 2014 (Local Time)

Forecast valid to 1:00am Friday 21 Mar 2014: Slow moving ridge 42S 170W 41S 152W 30S 140W 30S 120W. North of ridge of west of 140W: Southeast quarter 25kt, with gales as in warnings 320 and 324, heavy easterly swells developing west of 150W after 191200UTC, and poor visibility in rain west of 150W spreading south to 32S by 201200UTC. Low 1003hPa near 40S 127W moving southsoutheast 15kt.Within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise winds 25kt, with gales as in warning 318, and poor visibility in rain at times in sector from north through east to west.Front 49S 163W 54S 154W 58S 143W moving eastnortheast 25kt.Southwest of front:Southwest 25kt developing after 191800UTC. Areas of fog south of 45S and west of 160W.

Outlook following 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Mike near 30S 165W southsouthwest. Clockwise 35 to 45kt about cyclone with heavy swells. Ridge along 40S moving slowly south.North of ridge, Easterly quarter 20 to 30kt tending clockwise and rising to gale about cyclone. South of ridge, westerly quarter 20 to 30kt. Heavy northeast swell east of 130W and south 40S, easing by 211200UTC.

GALE WARNING 325
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Low 998hPa near 42S 126W moving south 10kt.
In a belt 240 nautical miles wide centred on a line 48S 120W 44S 128W 40S 127W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southwest 10kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 318.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

GALE WARNING 327
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
In an area bounded by 25S 169W 25S 151W 30S 155W 30S 163W 29S 169W 25S 169W: Easterly 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 331
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Copy of GALE WARN issued by NADI at 19-Mar-2014 13:17 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone MIKE [990hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 157.7 West at 191200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.2S 157.7W at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 22 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest
quadrant and within 360 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 157.7W at 200000 UTC
and near 26.1S 158.7W at 201200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 324.

Issued at 2:27am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

One thought on “Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

  1. “NOAA’s GOES-West satellite caught the birth of Tropical Storm Mike in the Southern Pacific Ocean on March 19. Mike’s formation has generated warnings for the Southern Cook Islands.

    NOAA’s GOES-West or GOES-15 satellite captured an infrared image of newborn Tropical Storm Mike in the Southwestern Pacific Ocean on March 19 at 1200 UTC/8 a.m. EDT. Mike appeared to be a compact, rounded tropical storm with bands of thunderstorms wrapping into it. NOAA’s GOES-West satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space capturing visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the western U.S. and Pacific Ocean.

    To create a GOES image NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. uses cloud data from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite and overlays it on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data create the picture of the weather over the Pacific Ocean and Tropical Cyclone Mike’s location.

    According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC, animated infrared satellite imagery showed that the consolidated low level circulation center has persistent central convection (developing thunderstorms) and broken displaced convection to the northwest and southeast of the center.

    On March 19 at 0900 UTC/5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Cyclone Mike was located near 20.5 south latitude and 159.3 west longitude. That’s about 751 nautical miles/864.2 miles/1,391 miles east-southeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Mike was moving to the south-southeast at a speedy 24 knots/27.6 mph/44.4 kph. Mike’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots/40 mph/62 kph.

    JTWC noted that Mike is a threat to the Cook Islands. As a result, there are warnings in effect for the Southern Cook Islands. A gale warning is in effect for Rarotonga, Aitutaki, Manuae, Takutea, Atiu, Matiaro, Mauke and Mangaia.

    JTWC forecasters expect Mike to move quickly to the south-southeast and strengthen to 45 knots/51.7 mph/83.3 kph before running into conditions that will make it extra-tropical in two days.” – phys.org

    Satellite image: http://phys.org/news/2014-03-satellite-newborn-pacific-tropical-storm.html

    Like

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