New Zealand: LOW 991hPa Ex-Tropical #Cyclone 18F Lusi 151200Z nr 37S 171E, moving S at 15 kts. Expected to cross South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington) – Updated 150314 1442z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi

Expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington)

New Zealand be aware!

Tropical Cyclone Lusi

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014

Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.

A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.

Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.

As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.

This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau

FORECAST

Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).

AREA/S AFFECTED

All of Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago

FORECAST

Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Buller north of Westport

FORECAST

Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Auckland

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton

FORECAST

Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.

WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE

HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.

STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.

On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.

The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.

From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.

map showing severe weather outlook

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

You can view the latest Severe Weather Video update here: http://metservice.com/tv/#severe

Please stay up to date with all the latest Severe Warnings and Watches

(All images in this section: metservice.com) (Click on images to link to source)

Press Reports

Australia Network News

Strong wind warnings in place in New Zealand as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi passes North Island

 

Photo: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi brings strong and gale force winds to New Zealand’s North Island, March 15, 2014. (MetService)

 

New Zealand’s weather bureau has issued strong wind and gale force wind warnings as ex-tropical cyclone Lusi moves over the North Island.

The Met Service says wind gusts of around 130 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Cape Reinga, on the northwest tip of the North Island.

Auckland has experienced wind gusts of almost 90 kilometres an hour.

There have also been heavy rainfalls overnight on the North Island, and warnings are in place for the South Island as the depression moves south.

The weather system is expected to cross the South Island on Sunday then weaken as it moves east on Monday.

So far, 10 people have died and two are missing in Vanuatu after Cyclone Lusi hit the Pacific nation.

Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila says another tropical low is forming in the east of the country.

While it is developing, it is not expected to become a cyclone soon.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says cyclone Lusi caused widespread flooding and damaged crops.

ABC/AFP

MARITIME

New Zealand

Coastal Storm Warnings

Storm warnings for: CASTLEPOINT, CONWAY, COOK

Coastal Gale Warnings

Gale warnings for: ABEL, BRETT, CHALMERS, COLVILLE, GREY, KAIPARA, PLENTY, PORTLAND, RAGLAN, RANGITATA, STEPHENS

Auckland VHF

GALE WARNING A23 FOR MANUKAU AND WAITEMATA HARBOURS, AND THE HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 45 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
GALE WARNING A23 FOR BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 40 knots gusting 50 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A20

Oceanic Warnings

High seas warnings for: FORTIES, PACIFIC, SOUTHERN, SUBTROPIC

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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