Tropical Cyclone Lusi
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014
Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.
A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.
Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.
As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.
This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau
Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.
The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty
Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).
The ranges of Hawkes Bay
Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).
All of Nelson
Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.
FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.
The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges
Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.
FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.
Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago
Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.
Buller north of Westport
Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.
FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.
STRONG WIND WARNING
Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.
The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames
Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.
Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton
Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.
WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE
HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland
Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.
STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland
Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014
Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014
Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.
On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.
The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.
From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.
Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.
- Low confidence:
- a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
- Moderate confidence:
- a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
- High confidence:
- a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen
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