Pacific Ocean/ Tongatapu/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 15F KOFI 011800Z nr 22.3S 175.4W, moving SW at 12 knots (RSMC Nadi) – Published 010314 2315z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 15F Intensity Category 1

(RSMC NADI)

Tropical Cyclone Kofi 16P Sixteen (JTWC)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

===================

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 10 issued 1920 UTC Saturday 1 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadis best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm March 1 1 22.3S 175.4W 110
+6hr 12 am March 2 1 22.9S 174.9W 140
+12hr 6 am March 2 2 23.6S 174.3W 165
+18hr 12 pm March 2 2 24.2S 173.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm March 2 1 25.1S 172.8W 220
+36hr 6 am March 3 1 27.2S 170.5W 280
+48hr 6 pm March 3 tropical low 29.9S 167.6W 345
+60hr 6 am March 4 tropical low 33.1S 164.3W 430
+72hr 6 pm March 4 tropical low 37.3S 160.9W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1923 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
175.4W AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EASTERN SEMICRICLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE MILES ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 23.6S 174.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.1S 172.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 27.2S 170.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 29.9S 167.6W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
KOFI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2239 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [988HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF NUKUALOFA AT 012100 UTC.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY
020600UTC. KOFI MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NUKUALOFA AT 020900UTC AND ABOUT 330 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 022100UTC.

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVAERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS
OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
020200UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1614.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16P_011732sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011800Z NEAR 22.3S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 175.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 24.4S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 26.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 28.4S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 30.8S 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011653Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NFTF (21.2S 175.1W), APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 28 KNOTS GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993
MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN.

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KOFI (16P) currently located near 20.2 S 176.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3
SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC
AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003.

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 012000 UTC. PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3 SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR.REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 021800 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 05S 178E 08S 178W 13S 173W 16S 172W 21S 172W 25S 175W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 13S OF CZ. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T1 11S 160E 13S 165E 14S 175E 15S 180 17S 178W TO TC KOFI. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17S OF T1. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 AND SOUTH OF 12S OF T1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T2 15S 147W 20S 139W 25S 135W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. STATIONARY FRONT SF 20S 175E 25S 177W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OF SF IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 23S OF SF. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOME SHOWERS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 IN THE AREA BETWEEN 175E AND 168W AND SOUTH OF 15S EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN EQT AND 07S AND BETWEEN 172E AND 160W, EXPECT MDERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. ROUGH SEAS

One thought on “Pacific Ocean/ Tongatapu/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 15F KOFI 011800Z nr 22.3S 175.4W, moving SW at 12 knots (RSMC Nadi) – Published 010314 2315z

  1. Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Check for interim updates in comments section at bottom of page

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