Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

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