Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

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