Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7 (RSMC La Reunion)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 161300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/17 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/20 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/01/21 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM MOVED BACK OVERSEAS THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 00Z AS IT HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ORGANISATION OF THE CORE OF THIS RATHER SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
MW PRESENTATION (CF TRMM PASS AT 0812Z). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES (GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF 1130Z) … WITH LACK OF OTHER OBJECTIVE EVIDENCES
TO PRECISE THIS ASSESSMENT.
UP TO SATURDAY, ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
AND THEN A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BEYOND, THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCES AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS MEAN
UP TO SATURDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 3 LATEST OUTPUTS OF
ECMWF.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ONLY A MODERATE
NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AS A NEGATIVE FACTOR THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE MERIDIAN TRACK. BEYOND, THE CHANGE IN THE HEADING AND A
LOWER FORWARD MOTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THE
SHEAR IS EVEN EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARII,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING SUGGESTED AT LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0914.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 20.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 18.9S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm NINE (09S) currently located near 20.2 S 43.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR) Storm Tracker Map (Click image for source)

MARITIME

ZCZC 144
WTIO24 FMEE 161226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTER
AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

One thought on “Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s