Norfolk Island (AUS)/ Auckland (NZ): Ex Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE 191200Z nr 29S 166E , moving SSE at 20 knots (MetService NZ) – 190114 1444z

Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE (RSMC Nadi)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P JUNE (JTWC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June: A Cyclone WARNING is current for Norfolk Island, Australia (BoM)

June currently headed toward Norfolk Island, AUS, then Auckland, NZ

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone JUNE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1321 UTC Saturday 18 January 2014

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone JUNE

 

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm January 18 1 22.4S 164.8E 110
+6hr 6 pm January 18 1 23.8S 165.1E 140
+12hr 12 am January 19 tropical low 25.3S 165.6E 165
+18hr 6 am January 19 tropical low 26.8S 166.0E 195
+24hr 12 pm January 19 tropical low 28.2S 166.9E 220
+36hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 30.9S 168.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 33.2S 171.2E 345
+60hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 35.5S 174.2E 430
+72hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 38.3S 177.3E 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Issued at 12:16 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at 11:30 pm NFT. Refer to Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Advice.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand.

Note: Information in text warning may have been issued at a different time to the latest track data.
Remarks:

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours. The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110 kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Details:

Time (NFT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 29.1S 166.6E 85
+6hr 6 am January 20 tropical low 30.7S 167.4E 105
+12hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 32.0S 168.3E 130
+18hr 6 pm January 20 tropical low 33.1S 169.5E 150
+24hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 34.0S 170.8E 175
+36hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 36.3S 174.7E 210
+48hr 12 am January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am January 23 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday

IDQ20064
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 12:15 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at
11:30 pm NFT

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.

At 11:30 pm NFT, the centre of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 130
kilometres west of Norfolk Island and moving south southeast at 33 kilometres
per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and
is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours.
The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1
tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110
kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist
for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 11:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near…… 29.1 degrees South 166.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 110 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 992 hectoPascals

The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should remain inside until
Ex-Tropical Cyclone June has passed and listen to the next advice at 3:30am NFT.
– Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island
Administration website at: http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management
– For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

The next advice will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday 20 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

TCWC-Wellington/Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/severe_weather.asp

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JUNE (10P) currently located near 20.0 S 163.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_172332sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 27.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 31.6S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON, NORFOLK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS SHALLOWED
AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND COMPLETES ETT AS A COLD CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA14 / GALE_STORM_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1203

WWNZ40 NZKL 191203 GALE WARNING 239 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC AT 191200UTC OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S. LOW 992HPA, FORMER CYCLONE JUNE, NEAR 29S 166E MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 20KT. WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW: CLOCKWISE 40KT. GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 237.

Subtropic high seas forecast

Issued by MetService at 7:22pm Sunday 19 Jan 2014 NZ

Forecast valid to 1:00am Tuesday 21 Jan 2014: South of 37S and east of 178E and west 175W: Northwest quarter 25kt, easing by 200000UTC. Low 990hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 27S 165E moving southsoutheast 20kt. Within 300 nautical miles of Low in sector from south through west to northeast: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low in sector from northeast through southeast to south: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low: Poor visibility in areas of rain and areas of heavy swell.

Outlook following 72 hours

Low, former Cyclone June, expected near 34S 170E at 201200UTC, continuing to move southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale near low until 221200UTC, with heavy northerly swells in southeast quadrant. High expected near 40S 145E at 221200UTC, extending ridge northeast,then moving east.

GALE WARNING 239
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 992hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 29S 166E moving southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 40kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 237.

Issued at 1:04am Monday 20 Jan 2014

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before:
NZDT: 8:15am, 8:15pm
NZST: 9:15am, 9:15pm
Updates and amendments may be issued at any time.

 

2 thoughts on “Norfolk Island (AUS)/ Auckland (NZ): Ex Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE 191200Z nr 29S 166E , moving SSE at 20 knots (MetService NZ) – 190114 1444z

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