Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

Tropical Low 1

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Sun Jan 12 10:30:00 2014 at Sun Jan 12 20:30:00 2014 AEST

MSLP Analysis for Mon Jan 13 06:00:00 2014 AUTC

Australian Weather Watch Radar Network (link)

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:01 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 4 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 10 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 4 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 10 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 10 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 10 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 10 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 10 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday

WA

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 9:32 pm WST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 8 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 8 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 8 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 8 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 12:30 am WST Wednesday

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9  
Issued at 10:55 pm CST [9:25 pm WST] on Tuesday 14 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
395 kilometres east northeast of Wyndham and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move
in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If
the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then
there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth
and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border
during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly
River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities,
there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the
NT border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near…… 13.7 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January [12:30 am
WST Wednesday 15 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210IDD20040

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem, Roper-McArthur, Victoria River and Barkly Districts, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Issued at 11:07 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa, was near latitude
13.7S, longitude 131.3E, about 150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin. The
low is currently over the northwest Top End and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, close to the coast near the NT/WA Border.

Heavy rain over the Arnhem, eastern Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts,
including the Tiwi Islands may lead to flash flooding overnight and during
Wednesday.

A vigorous monsoon has developed along the north coast of the Top End.
Monsoonal squalls with locally damaging wind gusts up to 95 km/h are expected
along the Territory coastline tonight and during Wednesday. Locally damaging
wind gusts to 95 km/h are also possible with thunderstorms over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts, extending into the Victoria
River and Barkly Districts on Wednesday afternoon.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system – telephone 1300 659
211 (NT)

Noonamah in Darwin’s rural area has received 153.2 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today and flash flooding has also been reported in the Darwin rural
area.  Upper Adelaide River has also reported 135.8 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today.

McCluer Island on the north Arnhem coast has reported 83 km/h wind gusts at
11:12 am and at 6:01pm today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous – avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January.

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
http://www.bom.gov.au.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZJAN2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S 73.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from WA/NT Border to Cape Wessel
Issued at 11:05 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of 13.7 S
131.3 E about 80 nautical miles south southeast of Darwin with central pressure
996 hectopascals moving southwest at 9 knots.

The low is expected to move southwest over the western Top End and may move
into the Timor Sea during Wednesday. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours if it moves over water.

Centre forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 S 129.1 E about 240
nautical miles south southwest of Darwin at 9:30 pm CST Wednesday.

Gale Warning
From Daly River Mouth to WA/NT Border…
West to southwest winds 20/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots overnight. Winds
increasing further to clockwise 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the low
if it develops into a cyclone. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 2 metres,
rising to 3 metres overnight, and to 3.5 metres if the low develops into a
cyclone. A 2 metre westerly swell developing on Wednesday.

Strong Wind Warning
From Daly River Mouth to Cape Wessel….
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Wessel. Winds reaching 25/33 knots over offshore waters between Cape Don and
Cape Wessel, easing in the morning. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising
to 3 metres. A 2 to 3 metre west to northwest swell over offshore waters in the
north, extending to offshore waters in the west later Wednesday. These
conditions should persist for another 24 to 48 hours.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 AM CST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

————————– End of warning —————————-

METAREA10&11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN-AREA / 1340

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:14S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1340UTC 14 JANUARY 2014

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal three east (131.3E) over land.
Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the southern Timor Sea in the
next 6 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 20 knots near the centre.

Clockwise winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre may develop if
the low moves over water, with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 15 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 south 130.0 east over
land
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots
At 1200 UTC 15 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 south 129.1 east over
land
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 20 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 14 January 2014.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

One thought on “Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

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