SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 08S COLIN 100900Z nr 12.7S 83.1E, moving WSW at 13 knots (JTWC) – 100114 1125z

Tropical Cyclone Colin

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 278
WTIO30 FMEE 100726
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 170 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/10 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/14 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/15 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5+
THE DEEP CONVECTION FLUCTUATED WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RELATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS DEGRADE A LITTLE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE METEOSAT7
MULTISPECTRAL PICTURES.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE
BUOY 56552 MEASURED PRESSURE AT 09/21Z, VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AT
THAT TIME.
THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A REGULAR
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RELAX AS SYSTEM SHIFTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WINDOW OF DEEPENING UP TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE SLOW DEEPENING AT FIRST, SHOULD
ACCELERATE A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST
AND THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0814.gif

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 12.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 14.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 15.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 19.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.3S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 27.4S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM’S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

ZCZC 214
WTIO20 FMEE 100656
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE WESTER
N SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDIN
G UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

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