Tonga/Vavau: Severe Tropical Cyclone 07 IAN (=CAT4 HURRICANE SS) 102100Z nr 19.3S 174.6W, moving S at 5 knot (JTWC) – 100114 2155z

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian

 

Category Cyclone 4 (RSMC NADI)

 

= CAT 4 (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

(RSMC NADI)

 

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Tonga.jpg

 

7570 people live on the Haapai Islands (Census 2006), Vavau Population 14922 (as of 2011) in path of TC Ian

 

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

TROPICALCYCLONETHREATTRACKMAP

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN Category 4

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 25 issued 2013 UTC Friday 10 January 2014

 

 

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

 

 

 

Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds

 

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

 

 

 

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN
Situation At: 1800 UTC Friday 10 January 2014
Location: 18.8S, 174.7W
Recent Movement: SSE at 12 km/h

 

 

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

 

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

 

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1940 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN 07F CENTRE 938HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS.

 

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

EYE WELL DEFINED IN VIS/IR. IAN LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW ENHANCED TO SOUTH BY JET STREAM
LOCATED ON THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROCHING UPPER TROUGH. SST AROUND
28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDING DT OF 5.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

 

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.1S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.6S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 23.2S 173.1W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.0S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC.

 

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY FIVE for Tonga ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI
GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE [938HPA] CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
HAAPAI AT 101900 UTC. IAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145
KNOTS.

 

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT
95 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAAPAI AT 110700 UTC AND ABOUT 185 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAAPAI AND ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT
111900UTC.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

 

FOR THE VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUP:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
105 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 40 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.

 

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102300UTC OR EARLIER

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0714.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07P_100532sair.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z NEAR 18.9S 174.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z 20.4S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z 23.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z 25.0S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z 28.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z 34.1S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM
EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY
DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72,
TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN.

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

(Image: wunderground.com)

 

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2014 18:00 GMT

 

 

 

Very Intense TC IAN (07P) currently located near 18.9 S 174.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

Emergency Management in the Kingdom of Tonga

 

Tonga Red Cross Society

 

(Links from doctoradvice4u.com)

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1800

 

WHPS01 NFFN 101800
HURRICANE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/1857 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE 938HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8 SOUTH
174.7 WEST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

 

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 111800 UTC.

 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.1S 174.3W AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 173.7W AT 111800 UTC.

 

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 023.

 

Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 9:25am on Saturday the 11th of January 2014

 

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, KORO SEA AND LAU WATERS .

 

Situation: A fresh to strong southerly wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midday tomorrow for Fiji waters: For Vatu-i-ra passage, Koro Sea and Lau Waters: South to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. For the rest of Fiji waters: South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas.

4 thoughts on “Tonga/Vavau: Severe Tropical Cyclone 07 IAN (=CAT4 HURRICANE SS) 102100Z nr 19.3S 174.6W, moving S at 5 knot (JTWC) – 100114 2155z

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