La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa

 

= Tropical Storm strength (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

(Please note time stamps on images/text)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: meteo.fr) La Reunion Radar

 

ZCZC 171
WTIO30 FMEE 031757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 410 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/05 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/01/06 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/01/06 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
UNDER THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER MARGINAL AND LOWERING OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT (SST BETWEEN 26.0 DG AND 26.5 DG).
BEJISA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD KEEP ON UNDERGOING THE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER L
EVEL WIND-SHEAR ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS WIND-SHEAR WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT DUE THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION OF THE TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY STAY LOCATED TEMPORARILY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THEN THE WEAKENING MAY BE LESS RAPID. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE AGAIN MORE RAPID ON SUNDAY WITH TH
E STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION FROM SUNDAY AND FILL UP MONDAY OR TUESDAY FAR AW
AY IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

Prvisions pour La Runion du Vendredi 03/01/14 17 h, valable pour la nuit prochaine et la journe du Samedi 04/01/14

 

Situation gnrale:

La Runion est en Phase de Sauvegarde.
Le flux s’oriente au secteur Nord-Ouest en faiblissant progressivement.
Pour information: La forte tempte tropicale BEJISA se situait 16 heures 240 km au secteur Sud de La Runion.

 

Prvisions pour la nuit prochaine:

La situation mtorologique se calme progressivement. Le ciel sera moins nuageux et les prcipitations vont continuer s’attnuer. Elles devraient se limiter l’ouest d’une ligne situe de St Joseph Ste Suzanne au cours de la nuit prochaine.

Le vent continue de faiblir. Il reste toutefois modr sur les rgion Est et Sud-Ouest de l’le avec des rafales de l’ordre de 60 km/h environ. Il souffle aussi sur St Denis et sur Petite Ile.

Prvisions pour le Samedi 04/01/14

Quelques averses sont encore attendues au lever du jour de St Gilles Ste Marie puis la situation s’arrange sur l’ensemble du dpartement. Les claircies sont plus gnreuses et les priodes ensoleilles plus nombreuses au cours de la matine, aussi bien sur les plaines, dans les cirques que sur les plages.

Au cours de l’aprs-midi, la grisaille s’installe sur le relief avec des prcipitations localement modres au sud d’une ligne allant de St Benoit St Leu. Le long du littoral, alternance d’claircies et de passages nuageux.

Le vent souffle du Nord-Ouest avec des rafales atteignant 50 55 km/h de La Possession Ste Suzanne et de Petite Ile Grand Bois. Ailleurs, les brises prdominent.

La mer est agite forte. Une houle de Sud-Sud-Ouest de 2m50 3m gnre par la Forte Tempte Tropicale BEJISA dferle sur les ctes Ouest et Sud de la Runion. Elle faiblit en fin de journe.

La plus grande prudence est recommande sur le littoral Ouest et Sud en raison de la houle.

 

Horaires des mares La Pointe des Galets le Samedi 04/01/14:

Basse : 09:31 et 21:58

Haute : 03:38 et 15:34

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

 

Thu, Jan 2, 2014

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

ELEVENTH AND LAST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20H00 ON THURSDAY 02
JANUARY 2014.

 

At 19h00 cyclone BEJISA was located near latitude 21.6 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees
east that is at about 275 km to the west south west of Le Morne. it is moving in a general south
easterly direction at about 14 km/h to eventually recurve towards the south.
On this trajectory BEJISA has started to move away from the region and hence no cyclonic conditions may occur over Mauritus.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

The showery weather will persist and will cause accumulation of water in some places. The
moisture in the lower atmosphere will maintain thick fog during the night and early morning.
The road users and the public at large are advised to be very cautious.
Wind will blow from the Northern sector with gusts of the order of 70 to 80 km/h in exposed places.
Sea will remain high with heavy swells and risks of beach inundation mainly to the Northern,
Western and Southern sectors. Ventures at sea are strictly forbidden.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0614.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06S_031730sair.jpg

 

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031800Z — NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2014 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 23.1 S 55.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA7 & 8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 1757

 

WTIO22 FMEE 031757
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/01/2014 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

4 thoughts on “La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

  1. Graphics/images correct when edited, but for some reason older versions are appearing in the finished post. Most graphics/images can be clicked on, to go to the source provider. Check the time stamps carefully.

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