Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (JTWC)

= CAT1 strength (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intensity Category 1) Christine BOM

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

National Radar image

National Radar image (Image: BOM)
CLICK IMAGE FOR RADAR ANIMATION

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 2:33 pm WST Tuesday 31 December 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 50.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been issued for the Pilbara.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Name:Tropical Cyclone Christine

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm December 31 1 23.5S 117.4E 35
+6hr 8 pm December 31 1 24.7S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 am January 1 1 25.9S 119.8E 80
+18hr 8 am January 1 tropical low 27.3S 121.6E 105
+24hr 2 pm January 1 tropical low 28.8S 123.5E 130
+36hr 2 am January 2 tropical low 30.3S 128.5E 165
+48hr 2 pm January 2 tropical low 32.1S 134.1E 200
+60hr 2 am January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 2 pm January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 31 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 1, was estimated to be
45 kilometres southwest of Paraburdoo and
315 kilometres south of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts
of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving
south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the
cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern
parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western
Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the
cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe
winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during
Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been
issued for the Pilbara.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately
head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three
Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna,
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar,
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson,
Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds
is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside
as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near…… 23.5 degrees South 117.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 31 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

WA: DFES

Australian Red Cross

Twitter @RedCrossAU

redcross.org.au

Call theRed Cross office in your state and ask for the emergency services department.

You can also email them.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0514.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_301132sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE (05S) currently located near 21.1 S 117.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

NONE

One thought on “Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

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