RODRIGUES/ Mauritius/ LaRéunion: Tropical Cyclone/Storm Amara 222100Z nr 22.8S 68.1E, moving ESE at 6 knots (JTWC) – 221213 2250z

MODERATE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM/

Tropical Cyclone (02) Amara

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

MASCARENES ISLANDSMauritius, Runion and Rodrigues BEWARE!

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

ZCZC 096
WTIO30 FMEE 221911
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2013/12/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2013/12/25 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/26 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2013/12/27 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY DESTRUCTURED WITH THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
DEEP CONVECTION. 1725Z ASCAT PATH CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY AND SHOWS STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHER
N PART OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AMARA SHOULD KEEP A SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EASTWARD TRACK IN RELATIONSHIP WIT
H A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDERGOING THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICA
L WIND-SHEAR.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD GO BACK WESTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW OF T
HE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
AS BRUCE SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF AMARA AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINT
Y IN THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVING SCENARIO.
NNNN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0314.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_200530sams.jpg

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 222100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 22.8S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER
50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED
TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC
03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING
TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2013 6:00 GMT

(No update for 22 Dec 2013)

 

 

 

Very Intense TC AMARA (03S) currently located near 20.1 S 64.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME

 

ZCZC 829
WTIO20 FMEE 220611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2013
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/12/2013 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

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