India: Depression (IMD)/ Tropical cyclone 30W 160900Z near 10.8N 79.9E moving WNW at 9 knots (JTWC) crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam (RSMC New Delhi) – 161113 1155z OUTDATED see http://wp.me/p2k2mU-29R

MOST INFORMATION ON THIS PAGE IS NOW OUT OF DATE

The latest Tropical Cyclone information at this time (12th June 2014) can be found here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/indian-ocean-india-tropical-cyclone-developing-invest-95a-091230z-nr-13-6n-68-1e-moving-ne-at-10-knots-jtwc-published-090614-1815z/

More generally here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/category/severe-weather/

The following information left here for historic research purposes:

Depression (RSMC New Delhi)

Tropical Cyclone 30W (JTWC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS�RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-11-2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013
BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013.
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND
CROSSED TAMIL NADU COAST NEAR NAGAPATTINAM (43147) BETWEEN 0700 AND 0800 UTC AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 11.0
0
N AND
LONGITUDE 79.5
0
E, ABOUT 40 KM WEST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43147). THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE
AREA DURING NEXT 24HRS
.
.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED
WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH TAMILNADU, SOUTH
INTERIOR KARNATAKA, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH RAYALSEEMA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY AND SOUTH AANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1530 hours IST
Dated: 16-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/19
Sub: Depression crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards crossed
Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam between 1230 and 1330 hrs IST and lay
centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 16
th
November 2013 near latitude 11.0
0
N and
longitude 79.5
0
E, about 40 km west of Nagapattinam. The system would move west-
northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during
next 24hrs.
Warning for north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh
(i)
Rainfall
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a
few places would occur over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24
hours and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur during subsequent
24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would
occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hrs.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south
Tamilnadu and south interior Karnataka during next 48 hrs.
(ii)
Squally/Gale Winds
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail
along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast
during next 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60
kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during the same
period.
(iii)
Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
(iv)
Action Suggested
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 16
th
November, 2013.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/30W_131300sams.jpg

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3013.gif

WTIO32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 017�
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 10.8N 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 80.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.9N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OVER LAND AND
RAPIDLY ERODING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR NAGAPATTINAM, SOUTHEASTERN INDIA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.�� //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Depression THIRTY (30W) currently located near 10.8 N 80.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
��������probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

FQIN01 DEMS 160900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2013
—————————————————————
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART II :-� THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
��������������� PERSISTD� AND LIKELY TO CROSSED EAST COAST OF SOUTH
INDIA
��������������� BY 16TH EVENING (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Tamil Nadu 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off Tamil Nadu (Nagapattinam to Chennai) and Puducherry coasts during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (?25 cm) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tonight. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls would occur over north Tamil Nadu on 16th & 17th November. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Tamil Nadu on 16th and 17th November, 2013.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast commencing from tonight. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast commencing from tonight.

� Fishermen out at sea off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to return to the coast. � Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Tide Predictions

Nagapatnam

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Andhra Pradesh 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off South Andhra coasts (Nellore to Kakinada) during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 16th and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 17th November would occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail off south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from tonight.

Fishermen out at sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Tide Predictions

Kakinada

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AVHRR Image

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