Mexico: Low Pressure Area, Invest 97E, has 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours – 311013 2325z

Low Pressure Area Invest 97E

(Image: wunderground.com) Computer Models (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR ON

FRIDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A HIGH CHANCE…80

PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

 

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

 

FORECASTER BERG

 

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

(Image: NHC)

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 311130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTWHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.LOW 40N162E 984 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 180
NM W AND NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO
FROM 31N TO 44N W OF 172E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 46N W OF 175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N169E 972 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N174E 966 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 38 FT. ALSO
FROM 36N TO 53N BETWEEN 172W AND 169E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14
TO 33 FTHIGHEST NEAR 42N175E. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 55N
BETWEEN 170W AND 167E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N172W 972 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
48N164W TO 40N172W TO 32N179W. WITHIN 300 NM E AND SE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 480
NM E AND 420 NM W SEMICIRCLESAND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF
40N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
E OF ENTIRE FRONTAND WITHIN 660 NM E AND 480 NM W SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 59N149W 980 MB DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE600 NM SE840 NM W AND SWAND 90 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 1000 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N149W 1013 MB. FROM 51N TO 56N BETWEEN
133W AND 147W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 51N179W 1005 MB MOVING E 30 KT AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
42N TO 51N BETWEEN 170W AND 174E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N158W 1016 MB. FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN
154W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 44N141W 1018 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N134W 1020 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N132W 1016 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N127W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE240 NM
SWAND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE240 NM SE540 NM SWAND 300 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

GALE WARNING
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N154E 1000 MB. FROM 35N TO 45N
W OF 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N165E 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE420 NM
SWAND 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N170E 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE360 NM
SWAND 240 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO
23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N W OF 179E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 160W AND 177E AREA OF E TO NE WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 540 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N156W TO
40N143W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 480 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N155W TO
40N133W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM OF
43N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 174W AND 174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
51N161W TO 43N169W.

.HIGH 38N130W 1026 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N128W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 33N143W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 37N176W 1031 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N162W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N153W 1036 MB.

.HIGH 53N172E 1012 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
17N108W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
18N108W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 17N106W TO
11N110W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU OCT 31

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N108W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 100
NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W TO 110W AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
110W AND 116W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N162W TO 25N174W TO 24N180E TO 23N172E. FRONT
MOVING E 10 KT N OF 28NNEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING FRONT FROM 30N155W TO 27N161W TO
26N176W. NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS DIMINISHED TO 8 FT OR LESS.

.TROUGH FROM 30N159W TO 24N162W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE.

.FRONT NW OF AREA MOVING SE 15 KT. S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 29N W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N167E TO 28N160E. ASSOCIATED
WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N160E.

.TROUGH FROM 02N165E TO 05N172E TO 09N177E MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 179E
AND 170E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 03N160E TO 05N166E TO 10N168E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N160E TO 09N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N175E TO 25N160E MOVING E 20 KT AND ERODING FROM
THE W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 167E AND
163E FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 165E AND 162EAND WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N167W TO 23N163W.

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 09N159W TO 09N170W TO 07N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 161W AND 174W.

$$

.FORECASTER BIRCHARD. HONOLULU HI.=

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

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