Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z

October 9, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 11 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Oct 2013 22:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for western Albania and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean from Tunisia across southern Italy to the southern Adriatic and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes and to a lower extend large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the northern Adriatic and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An intense cut-off process is underway at the eastern flank of an Atlantic ridge. At the end of the forecast period, a closed low will be centred across France. This will be associated with a westerly to south-westerly flow across the Mediterranean and warm air advection especially in the eastern portions. Across eastern Europe, a weak trough will move north-eastward.

DISCUSSION

Algeria to Sicily and Greece

Increasing warm air advection is expected across the area due to south-westerly flow in the wake of a lifting trough moving north-east into eastern Europe. An elevated mixed layer will spread north-east across the south Mediterranean Sea. The low-level mixing ratio will increase in the capped maritime boundary-layer due to the warm sea surface temperature. The plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will advect northward with the low-level flow, leaving the area of the strong inversion.

Additionally, several jet streaks will travel east along the 20 m/s jet stream that will provide QG lift from Algeria towards Greece.

Current thinking is that another round of frequent convective activity will affect the area until Friday morning. Storms will likely organize given the strong deep layer vertical wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems may move east or northeast.

The main threat will be excessive rain through-out the period as the storms will affect the same area along the warm air advection regime from Sicily to Greece for a longer time. Additionally, the high moisture will increase the chance of intense downdrafts. The western coasts and mountain areas are most at risk due to upslope flow where a level 2 was issued.

An additional risk are tornadoes due to locally large low-level hodographs together with strong low-level buoyancy near the coasts. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail are mostly expected across Algeria and Tunisia during the afternoon and evening hours.

Northern Adriatic and surroundings

Strong QG lift is expected ahead of the European cut-off low that will spread into the northern Adriatic late in the period. Given the rather most and warm boundary-layer ahead of the cold front, CAPE is forecast and thunderstorms will likely form especially in the evening and night hours. As vertical wind shear will be strong, storm will quickly organize and supercells and multicells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Additionally, excessive precipitation is expected especially in the eastern portions of the area. Near the Adriatic Sea, tornadoes may also occur given the strong low-level vertical wind shear.”

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

One thought on “Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z”

Goaty's News says: October 10, 2013 at 12:43

ALBANIAN (Translated by Google)
# Ashp�r
mot
# EUwx
# Lajme / @ ESTOFEX
Parashikimi # Storm : Niveli 2 p�r
# SHQIPERI & rrethinat kryesisht p�r reshjeve t� tepruar .

Parashikimi Storm

Evropian analist , ESTOFEX ka l�shuar parashikimin e m�posht�m p�r motit t� ashp�r :

Parashikimi Storm
Vlefshme : Thu 10 tetor 2013 06:00 tek Fri 11 tetor 2013 06:00 UTC
Hedhur n� qarkullim : Wed 9 tetor 2013 22:39
Analisti : GATZEN

Nj� Niveli 2 �sht� l�shuar p�r Shqip�rin� per�ndimore dhe rrethinat kryesisht p�r reshjeve t� tepruar .

Nj� niveli 1 �sht� l�shuar p�r veriun Algjeri dhe Tunizi kryesisht p�r bresh�ri t� m�dha dhe t� r�nda gusts er�s .

Nj� niveli 1 �sht� l�shuar p�r Mesdheun qendror nga Tunizia t� gjith� Italin� jugore t� Adriatikut jugor dhe Greqis� kryesisht p�r reshjeve t� tepruar dhe tornadot dhe p�r nj� m� t� ul�t t� zgjas� bresh�r i madh dhe Gusts r�nda er�s .

Nj� nivel i 1 u l�shua p�r Adriatikun verior dhe rrethinat , kryesisht p�r reshjeve t� tepruar, bresh�r i madh , Gusts t� r�nda era, dhe tornadot .

P�RMBLEDHJE

Nj� intensive cut- off proces �sht� duke u zhvilluar n� krahun lindor t� nj� kresht� t� Atlantikut . N� fund t� periudh�s s� parashikimit , nj� t� ul�t t� mbyllura do t� jet� e p�rqendruar n� t� gjith� Franc�n . Kjo do t� shoq�rohet me nj� fluks per�ndimi n� jug- per�ndimi p�rgjat� advection ajrit Mesdheut dhe t� ngroht� ve�an�risht n� pjes�t lindore . Anemban� Evrop�s Lindore , nj� lug i dob�t do t� shkoj� n� veri – lindje .

DISKUTIM

Algjeria n� Sicili dhe Greqis�

Rritja advection t� ngroht� e ajrit pritet n� t� gjith� zon�n p�r shkak t� fluksit jug- per�ndimi n� vazhd�n e nj� lug heqjen l�viz n� veri-lindje n� Evrop�n lindore . Nj� shtres� ngritur t� p�rziera do t� p�rhapet n� veri-lindje p�rgjat� Detit Mesdhe n� jug . Nivelit t� ul�t raporti p�rzierjen do t� rritet n� Kufiri detar kapuar – shtresa p�r shkak t� temperatur� t� ngroht� sip�rfaqen e detit . Sht�llung� e lag�shtis� pasur kufiri -layer do advect verior me rrjedh�n e nivelit t� ul�t , duke e l�n� zon�n e p�rmbysja e fort� .

P�rve� k�saj , disa streaks jet do t� udh�toj� n� lindje p�rgjat� lum� 20 m / s reaktiv q� do t� siguroj� ashensor qg nga Algjeria drejt Greqis�.

Mendimi i tanish�m �sht� se nj� raund tjet�r i aktivitetit t� shpeshta convective do t� ndikoj� n� zon� deri n� m�ngjes e premte. Stuhit� do t� ngjar� t� organizoj� dh�n�e fort� t� thell� vertikal shtresa qethje era , dhe sistemet mesoscale konvektive mund t� l�vizin n� lindje ose n� verilindje.

K�rc�nimi kryesor do t� jet� e tep�rt n�p�r shi -out periudh�s si stuhit� do t� ndikoj� n� t� nj�jt�n zon� p�rgjat� regjimit advection ajrit t� ngroht� nga Si�ilia n� Greqi p�r nj� koh� m� t� gjat� . P�rve� k�saj ,lag�shti t� lart� do t� rris� mund�sin� e downdrafts intensive . Brigjet perendimore dhe zonat malore jan� m� n� rrezik p�r shkak t� upslope rrjedhjen ku nj� niveli 2 �sht� l�shuar .

Nj� rrezik shtes� p�r shkak t� tornadot jan� n� nivel lokal t� m�dha t� nivelit t� ul�t hodographs s� bashku me buoyancy t� fort� t� nivelit t� ul�t pran� brigjeve . Neverit t� izoluara t� r�nda era dhe breshri m�dha priten kryesisht n�p�r Algjeri dhe Tunizi , gjat� or�ve t� pasdites dhe t� mbr�mjes.

Northern Adriatik dhe rrethinat

Heq� fort� qg pritet p�rpara e t� ult�ve Evropian cut- off q� do t� p�rhapet n� Adriatikun verior n� fund t� periudh�s. Duke pasur parasyshm� tep�r t� ngroht� dhe kufiri -layer p�rpara e para t� ftoht� , CAPE �sht� parashikimi dhe stuhi t� ngjar� t� formojn� sidomos n� mbr�mje dhe or�ve t� nat�s . Si qethje vertikale era do t� jet� e fort� , stuhi do t� shpejt t� organizojn� dhe supercells dhe multicells aft� p�r t� prodhuar bresh�r i madh dhe Gusts r�nda er�s jan� parashikuar . P�rve� k�saj , pritet q� reshjet e tepruar , ve�an�risht n� pjes�t lindore t� zon�s . Pran� Detit Adriatik , tornadot mund t� ndodh� edhe jepet fort� qethje t� nivelit t� ul�t vertikale er�s. ”
lidhur :
Meteoalarm – warnings r�nda motit p�r Evrop�n

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