Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 11 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Oct 2013 22:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

 

A level 2 was issued for western Albania and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean from Tunisia across southern Italy to the southern Adriatic and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes and to a lower extend large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the northern Adriatic and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An intense cut-off process is underway at the eastern flank of an Atlantic ridge. At the end of the forecast period, a closed low will be centred across France. This will be associated with a westerly to south-westerly flow across the Mediterranean and warm air advection especially in the eastern portions. Across eastern Europe, a weak trough will move north-eastward.

DISCUSSION

Algeria to Sicily and Greece

Increasing warm air advection is expected across the area due to south-westerly flow in the wake of a lifting trough moving north-east into eastern Europe. An elevated mixed layer will spread north-east across the south Mediterranean Sea. The low-level mixing ratio will increase in the capped maritime boundary-layer due to the warm sea surface temperature. The plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will advect northward with the low-level flow, leaving the area of the strong inversion.

Additionally, several jet streaks will travel east along the 20 m/s jet stream that will provide QG lift from Algeria towards Greece.

Current thinking is that another round of frequent convective activity will affect the area until Friday morning. Storms will likely organize given the strong deep layer vertical wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems may move east or northeast.

The main threat will be excessive rain through-out the period as the storms will affect the same area along the warm air advection regime from Sicily to Greece for a longer time. Additionally, the high moisture will increase the chance of intense downdrafts. The western coasts and mountain areas are most at risk due to upslope flow where a level 2 was issued.

An additional risk are tornadoes due to locally large low-level hodographs together with strong low-level buoyancy near the coasts. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail are mostly expected across Algeria and Tunisia during the afternoon and evening hours.

Northern Adriatic and surroundings

Strong QG lift is expected ahead of the European cut-off low that will spread into the northern Adriatic late in the period. Given the rather most and warm boundary-layer ahead of the cold front, CAPE is forecast and thunderstorms will likely form especially in the evening and night hours. As vertical wind shear will be strong, storm will quickly organize and supercells and multicells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Additionally, excessive precipitation is expected especially in the eastern portions of the area. Near the Adriatic Sea, tornadoes may also occur given the strong low-level vertical wind shear.”

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

One thought on “Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z

  1. ALBANIAN (Translated by Google)
    # Ashpr
    mot
    # EUwx
    # Lajme / @ ESTOFEX
    Parashikimi # Storm : Niveli 2 pr
    # SHQIPERI & rrethinat kryesisht pr reshjeve t tepruar .

    Parashikimi Storm

    Evropian analist , ESTOFEX ka lshuar parashikimin e mposhtm pr motit t ashpr :

    Parashikimi Storm
    Vlefshme : Thu 10 tetor 2013 06:00 tek Fri 11 tetor 2013 06:00 UTC
    Hedhur n qarkullim : Wed 9 tetor 2013 22:39
    Analisti : GATZEN

    Nj Niveli 2 sht lshuar pr Shqiprin perndimore dhe rrethinat kryesisht pr reshjeve t tepruar .

    Nj niveli 1 sht lshuar pr veriun Algjeri dhe Tunizi kryesisht pr breshri t mdha dhe t rnda gusts ers .

    Nj niveli 1 sht lshuar pr Mesdheun qendror nga Tunizia t gjith Italin jugore t Adriatikut jugor dhe Greqis kryesisht pr reshjeve t tepruar dhe tornadot dhe pr nj m t ult t zgjas breshr i madh dhe Gusts rnda ers .

    Nj nivel i 1 u lshua pr Adriatikun verior dhe rrethinat , kryesisht pr reshjeve t tepruar, breshr i madh , Gusts t rnda era, dhe tornadot .

    PRMBLEDHJE

    Nj intensive cut- off proces sht duke u zhvilluar n krahun lindor t nj kresht t Atlantikut . N fund t periudhs s parashikimit , nj t ult t mbyllura do t jet e prqendruar n t gjith Francn . Kjo do t shoqrohet me nj fluks perndimi n jug- perndimi prgjat advection ajrit Mesdheut dhe t ngroht veanrisht n pjest lindore . Anemban Evrops Lindore , nj lug i dobt do t shkoj n veri – lindje .

    DISKUTIM

    Algjeria n Sicili dhe Greqis

    Rritja advection t ngroht e ajrit pritet n t gjith zonn pr shkak t fluksit jug- perndimi n vazhdn e nj lug heqjen lviz n veri-lindje n Evropn lindore . Nj shtres ngritur t prziera do t prhapet n veri-lindje prgjat Detit Mesdhe n jug . Nivelit t ult raporti przierjen do t rritet n Kufiri detar kapuar – shtresa pr shkak t temperatur t ngroht siprfaqen e detit . Shtllung e lagshtis pasur kufiri -layer do advect verior me rrjedhn e nivelit t ult , duke e ln zonn e prmbysja e fort .

    Prve ksaj , disa streaks jet do t udhtoj n lindje prgjat lum 20 m / s reaktiv q do t siguroj ashensor qg nga Algjeria drejt Greqis.

    Mendimi i tanishm sht se nj raund tjetr i aktivitetit t shpeshta convective do t ndikoj n zon deri n mngjes e premte. Stuhit do t ngjar t organizoj dhne fort t thell vertikal shtresa qethje era , dhe sistemet mesoscale konvektive mund t lvizin n lindje ose n verilindje.

    Krcnimi kryesor do t jet e teprt npr shi -out periudhs si stuhit do t ndikoj n t njjtn zon prgjat regjimit advection ajrit t ngroht nga Siilia n Greqi pr nj koh m t gjat . Prve ksaj ,lagshti t lart do t rris mundsin e downdrafts intensive . Brigjet perendimore dhe zonat malore jan m n rrezik pr shkak t upslope rrjedhjen ku nj niveli 2 sht lshuar .

    Nj rrezik shtes pr shkak t tornadot jan n nivel lokal t mdha t nivelit t ult hodographs s bashku me buoyancy t fort t nivelit t ult pran brigjeve . Neverit t izoluara t rnda era dhe breshri mdha priten kryesisht npr Algjeri dhe Tunizi , gjat orve t pasdites dhe t mbrmjes.

    Northern Adriatik dhe rrethinat

    Heq fort qg pritet prpara e t ultve Evropian cut- off q do t prhapet n Adriatikun verior n fund t periudhs. Duke pasur parasyshm tepr t ngroht dhe kufiri -layer prpara e para t ftoht , CAPE sht parashikimi dhe stuhi t ngjar t formojn sidomos n mbrmje dhe orve t nats . Si qethje vertikale era do t jet e fort , stuhi do t shpejt t organizojn dhe supercells dhe multicells aft pr t prodhuar breshr i madh dhe Gusts rnda ers jan parashikuar . Prve ksaj , pritet q reshjet e tepruar , veanrisht n pjest lindore t zons . Pran Detit Adriatik , tornadot mund t ndodh edhe jepet fort qethje t nivelit t ult vertikale ers. ”
    lidhur :
    Meteoalarm – warnings rnda motit pr Evropn

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