China: Tropical Cyclone CIMARON/ Isang 180900Z near 23.7N 116.5E, moving NW at 14 knots – 180713 1020z

Tropical Storm Cimaron

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1308 (CIMARON)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 18 July 2013

<Analyses at 18/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N2240′(22.7)
E11725′(117.4)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E190km(100NM)
W150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 18/21 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N2420′(24.3)
E11610′(116.2)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 19/09 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N2540′(25.7)
E11510′(115.2)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180600Z NEAR 23.1N 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 116.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z 25.6N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z 28.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 116.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Cimaron

(wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-
18 GMT 07/15/13 15.0N 124.8E 30
00 GMT 07/16/13 15.3N 124.5E 30
06 GMT 07/16/13 15.6N 124.2E 30
12 GMT 07/16/13 16.3N 123.6E 30
18 GMT 07/16/13 17.1N 123.1E 30
18 GMT 07/17/13 17.1N 123.1E 30
00 GMT 07/17/13 18.1N 122.4E 35
06 GMT 07/17/13 19.5N 121.2E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 07/17/13 20.2N 119.9E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 07/17/13 21.5N 118.1E 45 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 07/18/13 22.7N 117.3E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 07/18/13 23.1N 116.8E 45 Tropical Storm

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2013 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CIMARON (08W) currently located near 23.1 N 116.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical Storm Cimaron Early Evening Update

Published on July 18, 2013 by

Tropical Storm Cimaron (Formerly Isang) is now about to make landfall in the province of Fujian. The storm was last located approximately 60km south of Xiamen or about 370km southwest of Taipei. Latest JMA Warning puts the maximum sustained winds at 75kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Cimaron is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

Radar Image from CMA

cma radar 1

Latest radar image out of Fujian Province shows the center of Cimaron pushing northward and nearing landfall. Light to moderate rains are already being reported along the coast, including Xiamen. As much as 100 to even 150mm of rain could be possible through tonight and into tomorrow. For the latest radar image and forecasts from China, please click HERE (CMA Official Website).

Tropical Storm Cimaron should make landfall within the vicinity of Xiamen later tonight. Strong winds and heavy rains should be expected especially near the center of the storm. Upon landfall, Cimaron should weaken rapidly and could completely dissipate by tomorrow.

-WxCaster PAT” – westernpacificweather.com

Chinese (Google translation)

熱帶風暴西馬崙

(圖片:wunderground.com)風暴中心的衛星圖片(點擊圖片來源)

(圖片:wunderground.com)五天預報圖(點擊圖片源)

日本氣象廳

變性1308(西馬崙)
2013年7月,18在09:45 UTC日發行
<Analyses在18/09 UTC>
秤 –
強度 –
中心位置N2240′(22.7)
E11725′(117.4)
方向和速度運動西北偏北20公里每小時(12克拉)
中央壓力1000hPa
20M / s的中心附近最大風速(40克拉)
最大陣風速度30M / s的(60克拉)
區的風30克拉或更多E190km(100NM)
W150km(80NM)
<Forecast為二十一分之十八UTC>
強度 –
TD
概率圈N2420′的中心位置(24.3)
E11610′(116.2)
方向和速度運動西北偏北20公里每小時(萬噸)
中央壓力1002hPa
半徑概率圓90公里(50NM)
<Forecast為19/09 UTC>
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N25​​40′(25.7)
E11510′(115.2)
方向和速度的運動西北偏北15公里/小時(8克拉)
中央壓力1004hPa
半徑概率圓130公里(70納米)
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心)TC警告圖形(點擊圖片來源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風WRNCEN珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。熱帶風暴08W(西馬崙)警告NR 011
01活躍的熱帶氣旋在NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
180600Z 近23.1N 116.8E
運動過去六小時 325度14節
位置精確到060海裡內
基於位置的組合中心
衛星和SYNOPTIC數據
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 040 KT,陣風050 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
半徑034 KT風 040 NM東北象限
040海裡,東南象限
035海裡,西南象限
035 NM西北象限
重複POSIT:23.1N 116.8E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
181800Z 25.6N 115.5E
最大持續風速 030 KT 040 KT,陣風
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
向量POSIT至24小時:350℃/ 12 KTS

24小時,有效的:
190600Z 28.0N 115.0E
最大持續風速 020 KT,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
23.7N 116.5E 180900Z位置附近。
熱帶風暴08W(西馬崙),位於約152 nm東
NE向香港跟踪西北14海裡
在過去的六個小時。 AT 180600Z最大有效波高
為16英尺。 NEXT警告181500Z 182100Z及190300Z / /

熱帶風暴西馬崙跟踪信息

(wunderground.com)

時間緯度經度風(英里每小時)風暴


格林威治時間18 13年7月15日15.0N 124.8E 30
13年7月16日格林尼治標準時間00 15.3N 124.5E 30,
格林威治時間06 13年7月16日15.6N 124.2E 30
格林威治時間12 13年7月16日16.3N 123.6E 30
格林威治時間18 13年7月16日17.1N 123.1E 30
格林威治時間18 13年7月17日17.1N 123.1E 30
13年7月17日格林尼治標準時間00 18.1N 122.4E 35,
13年7月17日北京時間06 19.5N 121.2E 40熱帶風暴
13年7月17日北京時間12 20.2N 119.9E 40熱帶風暴
13年7月17日北京時間18 21.5N 118.1E 45熱帶風暴
13年7月18日北京時間00 22.7N 117.3E 45熱帶風暴
13年7月18日北京時間06 23.1N 116.8E 45熱帶風暴
TSR logoNW太平洋:在18七月發出暴風警報,2013 6:00 GMT

熱帶風暴西馬崙(08W)目前位於23.1附近,ň116.8 E的預測在給定的領先時間(s)以下的可能性(次)取得土地:

黃色警示國家(S)或省(S)
中國
變性人的概率是80%,目前
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S)
汕頭市(北緯23.0東經116.2)
目前,60%的概率為TS

需要注意的是
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30%的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風,63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

熱帶風暴西馬崙早期的晚報更新
發布時間2013年7月18 rpweather

熱帶風暴西馬崙(原名Isang)現在是在福建省登陸,風暴最後位於約60公里,南臨廈門或約370公里的台北西南最新日本氣象廳警告將在75kph的最高持續風速的陣風110kph。TS西馬崙向北西北移動20kph。

來自中國氣象局的雷達圖像

CMA雷達1

最新的雷達圖像顯示福建省西馬崙向北推進,即將登陸的中心。輕至中度的降雨已經被報導沿海,包括廈門。高達100甚至150毫米雨今晚到明天有可能通過。從中國最新的雷達圖像和預測,請點擊這裡(CMA官方網站)。

熱帶風暴西馬崙將於今晚在廈門附近登陸。應該預計強風和大雨,尤其是風暴中心附近。西馬崙登陸後,應迅速削弱和可以完全消散明天。

WxCaster PATwesternpacificweather.com

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s