East Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest #91E) (JTWC) 290513 2235z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific IR Sat (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Invest 91E) (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 114.0W TO 13.9N 107.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 112.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
113.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 112.8W, APPROXIMATELY 370NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 291606Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. DUE TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTED BY THE
DYNAMIC MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
NNNN

 

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