Mexico: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 92E 271330Z nr 13.2N 95.6W WNW at 07 knots (JTWC) – 270513 1610z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTPN21 PHNC 271400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 94.5W TO 15.1N 100.4W WITHIN

THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF

NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA

ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z

INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W. THE

SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.9W IS NOW

LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO,

MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE,

ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER THAT FORMED ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE

AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST

PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO

SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE

SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE

STEERING HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, SUPPORTED BY SCATTEROMETRY

DATA, IS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

281400Z. //

NNNN

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