Post Tropical Storm #ALVIN 170400Z near 9.8N 110.7W, moving W at 13 knots (Dissipated) – 170513 0900z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

 

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTPZ31 KNHC 170834

TCPEP1

 

BULLETIN

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013

200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

…ALVIN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH…

…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

 

 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…10.3N 112.0W

ABOUT 790 MI…1275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13

MPH…20 KM/H…AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO

THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY

DIMINISH.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…

PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

 

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

ZCZC 190

ZCZC 234

WTPZ21 KNHC 170235

TCMEP1

 

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013

0300 UTC FRI MAY 17 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 110.8W AT 17/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 110.8W AT 17/0300Z

AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 110.1W

 

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.2N 111.8W

MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 113.2W

MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.7N 114.5W

MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.1N 115.9W

MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 12.3N 121.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 12.0N 123.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND 15 KT…GUSTS 20 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 110.8W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

 

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

 

 

NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 170400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 007

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

170000Z — NEAR 9.6N 110.1W

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 110.1W

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

171200Z — 10.2N 111.8W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

180000Z — 11.0N 113.2W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:

181200Z — 11.7N 114.5W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

190000Z — 12.1N 115.9W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:

200000Z — 12.5N 119.0W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z — 12.3N 121.3W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:

220000Z — 12.0N 123.5W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

170400Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 110.7W.

TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM

SOUTHWARD OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z

IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.//

NNNN

 

 

 

Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Alvin
(wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type

15 GMT 05/15/13 8.2N 103.6W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 05/15/13 8.7N 105.1W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/16/13 9.0N 105.9W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/16/13 9.1N 106.9W 50 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/16/13 9.4N 107.7W 50 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/16/13 9.5N 109.1W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/17/13 9.8N 110.8W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/17/13 10.3N 112.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000

AXPZ20 KNHC 170311

TWDEP

 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0405 UTC FRI MAY 17 2013

 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0300 UTC.

 

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

 

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CENTERED NEAR 9.8N 110.8W AT 17/0300 UTC OR

ABOUT 770 MI SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 12 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC

FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE

E QUADRANT AND SW SEMICIRCLE OF ALVIN…WITH VERY LITTLE

CONVECTION ON THE N SIDE OF THE STORM. ALVIN REMAINS IN A

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT MORNING…THEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY

SUN EVENING.

 

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES

NEAR 06N81W TO 09N87W TO 07N96W TO 09N106W…THEN RESUMES FROM

09N113W TO 06N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N132W TO

04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER

SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 117W…FROM 09N TO

12N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W…AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE

FROM 05N127W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION

IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

 

…DISCUSSION…

 

ALOFT…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG

SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF AN UPPER

TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER

NEAR 32N118W THROUGH 25N122W TO 21N140W. AN ASSOCIATED JET

STREAM BRANCH IS NOTED ALONG 15N W OF 120W…STRETCHING NE FROM

120W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL

MEXICO. S OF THIS JET STREAM…ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS

SEEN STREAMING ENE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC

REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS FURTHER ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL DEEP

CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE VERY COLD CLOUD TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED

WITH THE MONSOON AND ITCZ FEATURES AS WELL…RELATING TO

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.

 

AT THE SURFACE…1028 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE

DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N147W…WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E-

SE THROUGH 29N130W TO NEAR 19N111W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC

WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS N OF 12N W OF 114W UNDER

THIS RIDGING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL

STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS INDUCING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES

GRADIENT OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS OF THE AREA…ALLOWING

FOR NE-E TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FROM 16N TO 19N W OF 136W BY

LATE TONIGHT…THEN SHIFTING TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 19N

W OF 136W BY FRI EVENING. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE

WINDS…IN FRESH NE WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-

EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH WITH SEAS

SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE PRES

GRADIENT THEN SLACKENS.

 

WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR

06N81W…WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN

150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO

GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EARLIER

SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS ARE 20 KT

OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS MOVING UP FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE WILL MIX

WITH SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN…PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT OR

GREATER IN THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W S

OF 18N DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

 

$$

LEWITSKY

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0833

WTPZ21 KNHC 170833

TCMEP1

 

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013

0900 UTC FRI MAY 17 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 112.0W AT 17/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 112.0W AT 17/0900Z

AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 111.5W

 

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z…DISSIPATED

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 112.0W

 

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

 

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

Further Marine Forecasts
Atlantic & E Pacific

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