Invest 90E: Low pressure area in E Pacific ocean may become tropical cyclone by later this week – 140513 1405z

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image Invest 90E (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts (Click image for source)

Tracking Info For Invest 90e
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-
18 GMT 05/13/13 6.5N 95.0W 20 1009 Invest
00 GMT 05/14/13 6.9N 95.6W 25 1007 Invest
06 GMT 05/14/13 7.4N 96.1W 25 1007 Invest
12 GMT 05/14/13 7.4N 97.3W 25 1007 Invest
06 GMT 05/14/13 7.2N 96.6W 25 1007 Invest
12 GMT 05/14/13 7.4N 97.4W 25 1007 Invest

First East Pacific Invest (90E) has a potential to develop

Posted by: Civicane49, 4:54 AM GMT on May 14, 2013

The first invest of the year in the eastern Pacific is here and has a chance to become the first tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season, which the official start will be on this Wednesday. Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated an area of low pressure in the far eastern Pacific; the NHC tagged it as Invest 90E. (For those unfamiliar with the term Invest, the information can be found on the Hurricane FAQ). Satellite imagery reveals that the overall shower and thunderstorm activity has somewhat diminished over the past few hours. Judging by the satellite images, the system appears to have no issues with dry air intrusions or the vertical wind shear.


Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 90E taken on May 14, 2013 at 0345 UTC. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center (MKWC).

Forecast for 90E
90E appears to have an opportunity to develop in the next several days. Many global models are predicting this system to become a tropical cyclone by later this week. 90E will be transversing over warm sea surface temperatures over the 26C threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation. Vertical wind shear appears to be rather conducive over the next 72 hours as models are predicting it to be low until in days 4 and 5. There is an uncertainty in intensity forecast, but it looks like the system would at least attain tropical storm intensity. Given the favorable conditions ahead, I expect a steady organization of the disturbance in the next few days and giving it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. 90E is anticipated to move slowly westward and then west-northwestward across the Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The system poses no threat to any land areas. Civicane49′s WunderBlog

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 141130

HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1145 UTC TUE MAY 14 2013

 

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY

BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

SECURITE

 

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT TO

50N 160E

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MAY 14.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MAY 15.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MAY 16.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

…GALE WARNING…

.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 48N146W 1001 MB MOVING NE 25 KT

WILL SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. WITHIN 420 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO

35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND NE…600 NM

SE…780 NM SW…AND 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

SEAS TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N134W 1004 MB. E OF A LINE FROM 49N129W

TO 54N132W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N

TO 54N E OF 143W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. FROM 40N TO 53N E OF 140W WINDS

LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

 

…GALE WARNING…

.LOW 47N172E 990 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 600 NM S SEMICIRCLE

WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF

LOW CENTER…EXCEPT 480 NM NW QUADRANT…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS

8 TO 15 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH ONE CENTER 48N179W 992 MB AND

A SECOND NEW LOW 50N170W 996 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS

OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE

FROM 37N TO 53N BETWEEN 159W AND 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8

TO 15 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N166W 996 MB. FROM 40N TO 55N BETWEEN

145W AND 180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

.FROM 30N TO 41N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20

TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 41N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W AREA OF N

TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 39N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W AREA OF N

TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 31N W OF 168E AREA OF E TO NE WINDS

TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 173E AND 162E AREA OF E

TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

 

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 55N

BETWEEN 137W AND 149W AND WITHIN 420 NM N OF A LINE FROM 38N176W

TO 48N161E.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM

42N135W TO 54N136W AND WITHIN 420 NM OF 47N167W AND N OF 47N W OF

164E.

.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND

165W.

 

.HIGH 34N141W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N144W 1029 MB.

 

.HIGH W OF AREA 36N157E 1019 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N167E 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MERGED WITH HIGH 36N170E BELOW.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 47N124W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH W OF AREA 44N152E 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N170E 1025 MB.

 

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE MAY 14.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED MAY 15.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU MAY 16.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

…GALE WARNING…

.WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W…INCLUDING

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO

13N97W…INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30

KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W…INCLUDING GULF

OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT OR LESS.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

 

.LOW PRES NEAR 07N96W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N

SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 8N102W 1006 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE

SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 09N106W 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM

OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12

FT.

 

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W…INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC TUE MAY 14…

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH 08N78W TO LOW PRES 07N96W 1008 MB TO 10N110W TO

09N124W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG

WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED

STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W.

 

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MAY 14 2013.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MAY 15 2013.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MAY 16 2013.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

.NONE.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

.STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N174E TO 29N169E THENCE STATIONARY

TROUGH TO 28N160E.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N174E TO 28N160E. NE WINDS 20 TO

25 KT N OF FRONT W OF 164E.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 30N174E TO

26N160E. WINDS DECREASED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

 

.TROUGH FROM 17N164W TO 19N163W TO 23N161W MOVING W SLOWLY.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 17N165W TO 22N164W.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

 

.RIDGE FROM 30N169W TO 28N176E TO 25N162E NEARLY STATIONARY.

 

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 166W AND

175E.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

 

.OTHERWISE…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

 

.SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N177W 16N151W 20N140W

09N140W 01N180W 14N165E 24N177W. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT W OF 164E

BETWEEN 04N AND 10N.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 150W

AND 172E…AND FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 148W AND 169E.

.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 11 FT S OF A LINE FROM 11N140W TO

21N149W TO 12N174E.

 

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

 

.ITCZ FROM 07N140W TO 07N150W TO 04N170W TO 05N176E TO 03N160E.

SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 390 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 174E.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF

ITCZ.

 

 

$$

 

.HONOLULU HI.=

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