TD #24S #JAMALA 111200Z nr 10.5S 87.5E, moving E at 04 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 110513 1255z

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

ZCZC 449

WTIO30 FMEE 110629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20122013

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-JAMALA)

2.A POSITION 2013/05/11 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.3 E

(TEN DECIMAL CINQ DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL

THREE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

24H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2013/05/12 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2013/05/13 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2013/05/15 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

120H: 2013/05/16 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=1.5 AND CI=2.5

JAMALA KEEPS ON SUFFERING FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND A

LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-EAST OF THE

CONVECTION THAT HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS EFFICIENT POLEWARD.

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST

GENERALLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION. SUNDAY, WITHIN THE LOW AND MID

LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. JAMALA IS THEREFORE

EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARDS

TRACK. IT SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

ON THIS TRACK THE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SUFFERING OF THE LACK OF UPPER

DIVERGENCE. ON AND AFTER MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD

IMPROVE ET A SLIGHT RE-GENERATION OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE. ON

AND AFTER WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN

AGAIN AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS

UNCERTAIN .=

NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 110900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

110600Z — NEAR 10.6S 87.3E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 87.3E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

111800Z — 11.0S 87.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

120600Z — 11.3S 86.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:

121800Z — 11.3S 85.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

130600Z — 11.1S 83.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:

140600Z — 11.3S 79.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:

150600Z — 11.8S 74.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:

160600Z — 12.1S 71.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:

110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 87.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WELL DISPLACED FROM

THE LLCC IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO

THE WELL DEFINED AND EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE LATEST CIRA RAMMB

PRODUCT SHOWS AN INTENSITY OF 37 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED

WITHIN A POOR TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY

FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING

SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AN OVERALL WEAK

STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT

INTENSITY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 24S SHOULD TURN

WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE

OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S SHOULD BEGIN TO

INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VWS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF

60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, COOL DRY AIR FROM THE

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE

SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S

WESTWARD, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN AND THE

ACCELERATION OF THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND GFS

SOLUTIONS, DUE TO AN ERRATIC UKMO SOLUTION. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD

AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE

FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//

NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Jamala

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
————————————————————-
12 GMT 05/08/13 6S 83.9E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/08/13 6.1S 85.4E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/09/13 6.1S 85.4E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/09/13 7S 85.5E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/09/13 8.1S 86.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/10/13 8.7S 86.2E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/10/13 9.4S 86.7E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/11/13 10.6S 87.3E 40 Tropical Storm

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 20/1 May 11 2013 – 12:23:01 UTC

WTIO20 FMEE 111211

SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/05/2013

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/05/2013 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-JAMALA) 1000 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.5 E

(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,

EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND IN

THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM

THE CENTRE REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND VERY ROUGH

SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BY GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2013/05/12 AT 00 UTC:

11.1 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

24H, VALID 2013/05/12 AT 12 UTC:

11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

FQIO25 FIMP 110100

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S),METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, SATURDAY 11 MAY 2013 AT 0045 UTC

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JAMALA HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION EX-JAMALA 997 HPA.

AT 0000Z, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 SOUTH

86.9EAST ( NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL

NINE DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EAST 05 KT.

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,

EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALSO WITHIN

A PERIPHERAL BAND STRETCHING BETWEEN 11S AND 14E FROM 83E TO 94E.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTER

N QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180

NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT

AND VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM 50 MN TO 85 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN

THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN OF THIS SERIES UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 11 MAY 2013 AT 0000 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-JAMALA 997 HPA NEAR 9.8S 86.9E.

MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EAST 05KT.

WAVE NEAR 03S 46E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20S 70E, 24S 73E, 30S 75E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 25S 81E, 21S 86E, 21S 91E.

HIGH 1034 HPA NEAR 35S 95E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 37S 29E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 25S 51E, 31S 56E, 36S 61E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO SUNDAY 12 MAY 2013 AT 0000 UTC.

EAST 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH.

NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 10-20 IN SOUTH. LOCALLY GUSTY SEA

MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN

SHOWERS.

WEST 8/1: NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 05-10 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY

15-25 IN SOUTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN

NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD EXCEPT IN

SHOWERS.

8/2: NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. EAST

SOUTH EASTERLY 20-30 IN NORTH. EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY IN

REMAINING SOUTH. GUSTING 35-40 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY

VERY ROUGH IN NORTH EAST. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN

SHOWERS.

8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY 15-25. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35. SEA MODERATE IN

EXTREME SOUTH WEST, ROUGH ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY

GOOD.

8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 20-30. LOCALLY GUSTING

35-40. SEA ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH IN EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EAST

AND CENTRAL NORTH. FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH. VISIBILITY

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 TURNING TO SOUTH WESTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME

NORTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 25-30. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN

SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH 8/6: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

NORTH 8/6: SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY 10-20 IN WEST. WEST NORTH

WESTERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 IN EAST. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-40.

SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 10-25 TURNING TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME

NORTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN SOUTH EAST. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH EAST

AND CENTER, MODERATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTH WITH

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EX-JAMALA EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AGAIN=

END

Indian Ocean Hemispheres Tropical Cyclone and Latest WestPac Updates

One thought on “TD #24S #JAMALA 111200Z nr 10.5S 87.5E, moving E at 04 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 110513 1255z

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s