Australia: Tropical Cyclone #ZANE LOW/SS-TS Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED – 020513 0750z

(Image: wunderground.com) Western Pacific Previous 24 hrs IR4 Sat (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Issued at 4:14 am EST Thursday 2 May 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 20.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED.

At 3:00am EST Thursday, Ex – Tropical Cyclone Zane was estimated to be 160 kilometres east of Lockhart River and moving west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Gusty thunderstorms are expected over the Peninsula district today and may generate some locally heavy rainfall. This activity is not expected to be widespread and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as necessary.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 am May 2 tropical low 12.9S 144.8E 75
+6hr 9 am May 2 tropical low 12.3S 143.3E 80
+12hr 3 pm May 2 tropical low 11.8S 141.7E 100
+18hr 9 pm May 2 tropical low 11.3S 140.0E 125
+24hr 3 am May 3 tropical low 10.8S 138.0E 145
+36hr 3 pm May 3 tropical low 9.8S 133.7E 185
+48hr 3 am May 4 tropical low 8.9S 129.3E 220

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane

 

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 2nd of May 2013 and valid until end of

Sunday

 

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

 

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop

over the next three days.

 

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very low

Saturday: Very low

Sunday: Very low

 

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2012/13 season. The next

Tropical Cyclone Outlook will be issued on the 1st November 2013.

 

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a

tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% – 20%,

Moderate: 20% – 50% High: Over 50%

 

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea

west of 160E.

 

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

 

 

Preparing for Cyclones Brochure

MARITIME

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

 

PRIORITY

Coastal Waters Wind Warning

For coastal waters from Torres Strait to Cooktown

Issued at 4:05 pm EST on Thursday 2 May 2013

 

Synoptic Situation

A high pressure system [1029 hPa] over Victoria is expected to push a strengthening ridge up the east coast of Queensland during Friday.

 

Strong Wind Warning

Torres Strait to Cooktown

SE winds increasing to 25 to 30 knots during Friday afternoon. Seas rising to 3 metres outside the reef.

 

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm AEST.

 

Please be aware

Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

 

————————– End of warning —————————-

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Zane track (Click image for source)

WTPS31 PGTW 012100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

011800Z — NEAR 12.5S 144.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 144.5E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z — 11.3S 142.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 143.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

REVEALS AN ELONGATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED 185 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 011731Z

SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR AS THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER

DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35

KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30

TO 35 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS

REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30

KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS PERSISTED OVER

THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A POOR

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND

PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P WILL

DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE

POOR CONDITIONS AND WILL FURTHER UNRAVEL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE

CAPE YORK PENINSULA. DUE TO THE OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM AND FORECAST UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR

HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18

FEET.//

NNNN

 

Cyclone Zane Wednesday Evening Webcast

 

This webcast from our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERStakes a look at what has gone wrong with Zane and why he is dying as he approaches the coast.

Even though the storm has weakened cyclone warnings remain in effect in areas south of the center of circulation. Gale force winds are expected and heavy rainfall near coastal regions. The storm will quickly die out after making landfall. westernpacificweather.com

Outlook

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