Tropical Cyclone 22S #VICTORIA Low(SS-TS) 120300Z near 24.4S 106.4E, moving SSE at 08 knots (JTWC final) – 120413 0905z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria

Issued at 2:40 am WST Friday 12 April 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria has weakened over open waters well to the west of the Western Australian mainland.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am April 12 tropical low 21.0S 105.3E 55
+6hr 8 am April 12 tropical low 22.1S 105.7E 75
+12hr 2 pm April 12 tropical low 23.7S 106.4E 100
+18hr 8 pm April 12 tropical low 25.8S 107.3E 120
+24hr 2 am April 13 tropical low 27.5S 107.7E 150
+36hr 2 pm April 13 tropical low 30.4S 107.6E 185
+48hr 2 am April 14 tropical low 31.6S 105.4E 220

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

MARITIME

Ocean Wind Warning 1

40:2:1:04:55S075E35095:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0526UTC 12 APRIL 2013
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS

PLEASE BE AWARE 
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous flow associated with cold front near 44S118E 50S126E at 120600UTC.
Forecast 43S128E 50S134E at 121800UTC and 43S139E 50S144E at 130600UTC.

Area Affected
Bounded by 46S122E 44S126E 44S140E 50S139E 50S124E 46S122E.

Forecast
W/NW winds 30/40 knots within 360nm east of front shifting W/SW 30/40 knots west
of trough. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

Ocean Wind Warning 2

40:2:1:04:55S075E50060:11:00
IDY21010
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0607UTC 12 APRIL 2013
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE 
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous flow developing around a low 1004 hPa near 31.5S099E at 120600UTC.
Forecast 1005 hPa near 30.5S097.5E at 121800UTC, 1006 hPa near 29S097E at
130600UTC.

Area Affected
Bounded by 28S092E 28S095E 31S098E 31S104E 35S104E 35S098E 31S092E 28S092E.

Forecast
SE quarter winds 34/45 knots developing by 120900UTC. Very rough seas. Moderate
to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 23.1S 106.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 106.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 28.1S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 106.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 22S HAS ALMOST FULLY DISSIPATED UNDER THE STEADILY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
AUSTRALIA. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING, TC 22S WILL
BE FULLY DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR FACTORS IN
THE WEAKENING TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
00 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 102.3E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/09/13 13.3S 102.4E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 04/10/13 14.8S 103.7E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/10/13 16.2S 103.9E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 04/11/13 17.6S 104.1E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/11/13 19.8S 105.0E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 04/12/13 23.1S 106.1E 40 Tropical Storm

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