Tropical Cyclone 21S #IMELDA TD/SS-TS 160900Z 21.2S 62.9E, moving SE at 05 knots (JTWC) 160413 0950z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

METEO FRANCE LA REUNION

BULLETIN DU 16 AVRIL A 10H22 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-IMELDA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
POSITION LE 16 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 21.0 SUD / 62.9 EST
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 735 KM AU SECTEUR: EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 11 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 17/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 18/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 17H LOCALES.

 

 

 

BULLETIN OF 16 APRIL 10:22 LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING A # lareunion AND NO THREAT CYCLONE IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 999 HPA
POSITION ON 16 APRIL TO 10 HOURS LOCAL: SOUTH 21.0 / 62.9 IS
(TWENTY ONE ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE TWO DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 735 KM AREA: IS
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 17/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 18/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TO LOCAL 17H.

 

 

 

RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre ) LA REUNION

 

 

 

ZCZC 963

WTIO30 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/10/20122013

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA)

2.A POSITION 2013/04/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL

NINE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2013/04/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2013/04/17 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2013/04/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2013/04/18 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2013/04/18 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (25KT ACCORDING TO

CIMSS DATA) HAS COMPLETELY BLOWN OUT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED APPEARS CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE

SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12H UNDERGOING THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL BELT.

ON THIS RAPID WESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

MORE RAPIDLY WITH VERY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (COOLER

SST AND STRONG VWS).

THE RESIDUAL LOW MAY PASS SOUTH OF MAURITIUS ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH

OF LA REUNION ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

SYSTEM SHOULD BEYOND TAKE A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK AND DISSIPATE.=

NNNN

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu) Synoptic Chart

 

 

 

MARITIME

 

 

 

ZCZC 961

WTIO20 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

SECURITE

NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/04/2013 AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 042/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/04/2013 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA) 999 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, 25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WI

THIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FOR

CE WINDS 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT FROM 150 TO 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2013/04/16 AT 18 UTC:

21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2013/04/17 AT 06 UTC:

22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.

NNNN

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z — NEAR 21.0S 62.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 62.9E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z — 21.7S 63.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 62.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IMELDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM

EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS, BUT WITH

NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 160431Z ASCAT

PASS REVEALS CENTRAL WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM PLAINE CORAIL, MAURITIUS INDICATE WIND

SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING

THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES

INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS

(GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS), HAS BEEN DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. IN

ASSOCIATION WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), THE VWS

HAS LED TC 21S TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE VWS AND SST VALUES WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE

UNTIL THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON

THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 21 FEET.//

NNNN

 

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Imelda

 

 

 

(wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-

 

06 GMT 04/06/13 10.9S 72.6E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/06/13 10.7S 71.5E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/07/13 10.6S 70.5E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/07/13 11.2S 68.2E 45 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/08/13 10.9S 65.2E 45 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/08/13 11S 63.4E 50 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 61.2E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 59.5E 70 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/10/13 12S 58.4E 80 Category 1

18 GMT 04/10/13 12.3S 57.8E 100 Category 2

06 GMT 04/11/13 12.9S 57.9E 85 Category 1

18 GMT 04/11/13 13.3S 58.6E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/12/13 14.1S 58.9E 50 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/12/13 15.3S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/13/13 16.1S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/13/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/14/13 17.2S 59.4E 70 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 18.6S 61.0E 85 Category 1

06 GMT 04/15/13 19.6S 61.8E 75 Category 1

18 GMT 04/15/13 20.4S 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/16/13 21S 62.9E 40 Tropical Storm

 

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