(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Tim

Issued at 4:52 pm EST Saturday 16 March 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

Name:Tropical Cyclone Tim

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm March 16 1 17.1S 153.9E 35
+6hr 10 pm March 16 1 17.3S 153.6E 60
+12hr 4 am March 17 1 17.5S 153.4E 80
+18hr 10 am March 17 1 17.8S 153.2E 105
+24hr 4 pm March 17 tropical low 17.8S 152.9E 130
+36hr 4 am March 18 tropical low 17.9S 152.5E 165
+48hr 4 pm March 18 tropical low 17.9S 151.8E 200

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:50 pm EST on Saturday 16 March 2013
At 4 pm EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Tim (Category 1) with central pressure
995 hPa was located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 17.1 south
longitude 153.9 east, which is about 870 km east of Cairns and 425 km east
southeast of Willis Is.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is moving south southwest at about 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next
24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards
the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase
in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and
North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST.

 

Maritime

IDQ20009
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0655UTC 16 MARCH 2013

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Tim was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal one south (17.1S)
longitude one hundred and fifty three decimal nine east (153.9E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, reaching 130 nautical miles in the
southwest quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 17
March.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre, reaching 130 nautical
miles from the centre in the southwest quadrant. Seas rough to very rough and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 16 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.5 south 153.4 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 17 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.8 south 152.9 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 16 March 2013.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for Source)

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 17.3S 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 17.6S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.8S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND A SHRINKING OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 160140Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO THE CORAL SEA
ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERN TRACK AS A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, THE STEADY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Tim

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-
18 GMT 03/13/13 13S 146.6E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/14/13 14.9S 149.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/14/13 15.3S 152.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/15/13 16.1S 154.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/15/13 17.1S 154.3E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/16/13 17.3S 153.9E 40 Tropical Storm

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