Australia: Ex-Tropical Cyclone 19P (#SANDRA) CAT2 (SS-TS) 141000Z/142000EDT nr 31.2S 161.4E moving S at 24 km/h (QLD TCWC) – 140313 1310z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map(Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Sandra

Issued at 10:23 pm EDT Thursday 14 March 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.
NOW OUT OF DATE

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureaus best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 2, is situated over the northern Tasman Sea and is moving to the south. The system is expected to maintain category 2 strength overnight, but will weaken during Friday morning as it moves away from Lord Howe Island on a south southeasterly track.

Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected about Lord Howe Island overnight and through Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.

Destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/hr are now occurring on Lord Howe Island, and these conditions are likely to continue from now until the early hours of Friday. Wind gusts to about 100 km/hr are forecast to persist until Friday evening.

Rainfall of sufficient intensity to lead to flash flooding is no longer expected over the island.

The NSW State Emergency Service advise you:

– Stay indoors away from windows and keep children indoors.
– dont walk, ride your bicycle or drive through flood water, and keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
– check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
– Stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the Lord Howe Island Police on [02] 6563 2199

Name:Tropical Cyclone Sandra

Details:

Time (EDT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 14 2 31.2S 161.4E 75
+6hr 2 am March 15 2 31.7S 161.5E 135
+12hr 8 am March 15 1 32.3S 161.6E 155
+18hr 2 pm March 15 1 32.8S 161.7E 180
+24hr 8 pm March 15 tropical low 33.0S 161.8E 200
+36hr 8 am March 16 tropical low 33.8S 162.3E 240
+48hr 8 pm March 16 tropical low 35.1S 164.1E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 1:00 am EDT Friday

 

Maritime

GALE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1920 UTC 2013 UTC.

REFER TO WARNING 254 ISSUED BY WELLINGTON ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA. 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.

MetService Wellington New Zealand

Issued by MetService at 7:58pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

Forecast valid to 1:00am Monday 18 Mar 2013: Poor visibility in rain within 180 nautical miles of first front 29S 150W 34S 134W 38S 119W moving eastnortheast 5kt, easing by 170000UTC. Broad high 1024hPa near 41S 166W moving east 20kt, extends ridge 39S 144W 40S 120W moving eastnortheast 10kt. South of ridge: Westerly quarter 25kt with storms and gales as in warnings 307 310 and areas of heavy southwest swell. Poor visibility in rain within 180 nautical miles of second front 30S 153W 31S 162W 21S 162W moving southeast 10kt. Low 1002hPa near 29S 162W moving southsouthwest 10kt.West of 152W,south of 27S,north of ridge:Easterly quarter 25kt turning clockwise about low with gales as in warning 309.

Outlook following 72 hours

Large high 42S 147W moving eastnortheast. Southeast of high:Southwest 25kt to gale, with heavy southwest swell spreading northeast. Southwest of high: Northwest 20 to 30kt, rising 25kt to gale by 180600UTC. Low 33S 163W moving southeast but filled by 190600UTC. Clockwise 20 to 30kt about low. Trough expected 55S 166W to northwest at 181200UTC, moving east. Ahead of trough and south of 35S:Northwest 20 to 30kt, with gales at times. Southwest of trough: Southwest quarter 20 to 30kt, with gales at time. Heavy swell in gale areas.

STORM WARNING 307
This affects ocean areas: PACIFIC and SOUTHERN
AT 160600UTC
1. In a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 58S 144W 55S 137W 54S 127W: Southwest 50kt easing to 40kt next 6-12 hours. Storm area moving eastnortheast 30kt.
2. Outside area 1 and in a belt 540 nautical miles wide centred on a line 59S 152W 54S 137W 54S 120W: Southwest 40kt. Gale area moving eastnortheast 25kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 303.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

GALE WARNING 309
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 160600UTC
Low 1002hPa near 29S 162W moving southsouthwest 10kt.
In a belt 180 nautical miles wide centred on a line 31S 156W 32S 162W 28S 164W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southsouthwest 15kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 305.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

GALE WARNING 310
This affects ocean areas: FORTIES PACIFIC and SOUTHERN
AT 160600UTC
In a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 59S 178W 57S 171W 54S 163W: Westerly 35kt at times.
Gale area moving east 45kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 306.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)
The following is now out of date:

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140000Z NEAR 29.1S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 180 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 162.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z 31.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS AND REMAINED FULLY-
EXPOSED DURING THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED OVER THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT AND STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW FIX WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PRIOR 131109Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED
A LARGE 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A MORE RECENT 38-42 KNOT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, AS SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS DO NOT ACCURATELY CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEMS CURRENT STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS
LOCATED WELL POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND JUST EAST OF
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGH AT 30-40
KNOTS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS POLEWARD OF THE LLCC DUE TO
SPEED DIVERGENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW OVERHEAD. BASED ON
THE ABOVEMENTIONED DYNAMICS OVER TC 19P AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRA-TROPICAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A MODERATE MID-LATITUDE COLD-CORE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 19 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(TIM) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Sandra
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-
12 GMT 03/07/13 15.4S 156.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/08/13 14.8S 156.5E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/08/13 14.9S 157.7E 70 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/09/13 15.3S 158.3E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 03/09/13 15.7S 159.6E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 03/10/13 15.9S 160.5E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 03/10/13 16.5S 161.1E 125 Category 3
00 GMT 03/11/13 17.1S 161.7E 120 Category 3
12 GMT 03/11/13 18.2S 162.0E 105 Category 2
00 GMT 03/12/13 20S 161.9E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 03/12/13 21.9S 161.9E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 03/13/13 23.6S 161.5E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/13/13 25.9S 162.0E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/14/13 29.1S 162.1E 45 Tropical Storm

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