Australia (WA): Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty: Severe Weather Warning for Pilbara, Gascoyne, Goldfields, South Interior and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts- 280213 0820Z

ALL CLEAR: You need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage. (DFES)

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and heavy rain
for people in the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Goldfields, South Interior and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts (See below

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)
(Image: bom.gov.au) Surface Pressure & Rainfall (Click image for Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps)
(Image: bom.gov.au)

USTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty

Issued at 2:19 pm WST Thursday 28 February 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 41.

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Ex Tropical Cyclone Rusty has weakened below cyclone strength. No Further Cyclone Advices are expected to be issued for this system.

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are possible for the remainder of Thursday and into Friday as the remnants of Ex-TC Rusty continues moving southwards. A Severe Weather Warning has been issued please refer to IDW28001 for details.

MAJOR FLOODING is occuring in the De Grey catchment, and heavy rainfall is likely to continue. Please refer to Flood Warning IDW39845.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises that all community alerts have been cancelled:
ALL CLEAR: You need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm February 28 tropical low 22.0S 120.6E 65
+6hr 8 pm February 28 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+12hr 2 am March 1 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+18hr 8 am March 1 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+24hr 2 pm March 1 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+36hr 2 am March 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+48hr 2 pm March 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

Severe Weather Warning

IDW28001

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and heavy rain
for people in the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Goldfields, South Interior and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts

Issued at 3:05 pmWST on Thursday 28 February 2013.

For people in parts of WA bounded by Meekatharra to Nullagine to Cotton Creek to Warburton to Leonora to Meekatharra, extending to people in parts of WA bounded by Wiluna to Carnegie to Coonana to Norseman to Southern Cross to Sandstone to Wiluna on Friday. This includes people in, near or between Newman, Southern Cross and Kalgoorlie.

Weather Situation

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty has weakened below cyclone intensity. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are possible for the remainder of Thursday and into Friday as the remnants of the system continues moving southwards.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty is likely to cause HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to FLASH FLOODING and there is also the risk of DAMAGING WINDS to 90 kilometres per hour that could cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.

Rainfall of 177mm has been recorded at Telfer in the 24 hours to 9:00am Thursday morning and rainfall totals of above 100mm have been observed in surrounding areas.

 

This is typical weather associated with a weakening Ex-Tropical Cyclone.

The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:

  • If outside find safe shelter away from trees, power lines, storm water drains and streams.
  • Close your curtains and blinds, and stay inside away from windows.
  • Unplug electrical appliances and do not use land line telephones if there is lightning.
  • If there is flooding, create your own sandbags by using pillow cases filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home.
  • If boating, swimming or surfing leave the water.
  • Do not drive into water of unknown depth and current.
  • Slow down and turn your headlights on.
  • Be alert and watch for hazards on the road such as fallen power lines and loose debris.
  • If it is raining heavily and you can not see, pull over and park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears.

If your home or property has significant damage, like a badly damaged roof or flooding, call the SES on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm WST Thursday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s web site at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.

The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

View the current warnings for Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:20 pm WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013
for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 March 2013.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

At 11:00am WST Tuesday Tropical Cyclone Rusty was located near 19.2S 119.1E,
about 140km north northeast of Port Hedland and is moving south southwest
towards the coast. Refer to the latest
tropical cyclone information for further details
[http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday High
Thursday High
Friday Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

A low [11U] is located in the monsoon trough near 14.9S 98.2E at 8:00am WST
Tuesday,
about 350km southeast of the Cocos Islands. The low is moving south southeast
away from the Cocos Islands and
may develop into a tropical cyclone Tuesday evening. Refer to the latest
tropical
cyclone information for further details
[http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60285.shtml].

There are no other significant
lows and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday High
Thursday Moderate
Friday Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Click image for source)

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 21.5S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 23.2S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 119.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65NM EAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DECREASING CONVECTION AND AN OVERALL ELONGATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS TC 17S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND STEADILY WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM PORT HEDLAND ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE HAS
COLLAPSED AND THE CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT DESPITE THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND
MOVE MORE INLAND AS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENS DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM OVER
LAND AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Rusty

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-

00 GMT 02/24/13 16.7S 118.1E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/24/13 17.4S 117.9E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/24/13 17.7S 118.2E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/25/13 18.2S 119.0E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/25/13 18.8S 119.4E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 02/26/13 19.4S 119.2E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/26/13 19.3S 119.1E 110 Category 2
06 GMT 02/27/13 19.7S 119.4E 90 Category 1
12 GMT 02/27/13 20.3S 119.8E 85 Category 1

 

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