Tropical Cyclone #18S #EIGHTEEN 261500Z near 15.5S 98.0E moving SSE at 4 knots (JTWC) – 260213 1535z

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tracking Map (Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: bom.gov.au) Asia MSL Pressure Analysis Valid 00UTC (Click image for source)

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:51 pm WST Tuesday 26 February 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Strong winds, squally showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue during tonight and Wednesday as the low moves slowly southeast away from the Cocos Islands.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, but is too far away to directly affect the Cocos Islands.

Name:Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm February 26 tropical low 15.4S 98.0E 55
+6hr 2 am February 27 tropical low 15.4S 98.1E 80
+12hr 8 am February 27 tropical low 15.4S 98.2E 100
+18hr 2 pm February 27 1 15.4S 98.4E 125
+24hr 8 pm February 27 1 15.5S 98.8E 145
+36hr 8 am February 28 1 15.3S 99.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm February 28 tropical low 15.5S 100.6E 220

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

IDW23200
40:3:1:24:15S098E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN
AT 1247UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2013

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal four south (15.4S)
longitude ninety eight decimal zero east (98.0E)
Recent movement : near stationary
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant, extending after 0600 UTC to within 90
nautical miles in NW, NE and SE quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0600 UTC 27
February.

Southwest to northwest winds 30/40 knots within 120 nautical miles in SW
quadrant with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. Clockwise
winds to 35 knots developing within 90 nautical miles in NW, NE and SE
quadrants and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant by 0600 UTC 27 February.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 27 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.4 south 98.2 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 27 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.5 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +61889279276
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 26 February 2013.

WEATHER DARWIN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS33 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 15.5S 98.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 98.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.6S 98.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 15.6S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 15.6S 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 15.7S 99.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 16.0S 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 16.3S 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 16.5S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 98.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS
DETACHED FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME
MORE ELONGATED AND IRREGULAR, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, ASSESSED HIGHER THAN
MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS STATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL THE STR
RECEDES TO THE EAST. AT THAT STAGE, THE NER WILL REBUILD AND RESUME
STEERING AND TRACK THE CYCLONE FASTER EASTWARD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AT MODERATE GALE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION. AFTER TAU 48, SHOULD THE CYCLONE
SURVIVE, DECREASING VWS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN
EVENTUALLY TRACKING THE VORTEX EASTWARD BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING
MECHANISM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Eighteen

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
12 GMT 02/24/13 12.6S 97.4E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/25/13 13.5S 98.3E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/25/13 14.6S 98.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/26/13 14.9S 97.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/26/13 15.5S 98.0E 40 Tropical Storm

Cyclone Smart - Click to download the guide

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