10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

(See bottom of page)

(Image: mtotec.com) Satellite imagery / Image satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Moambique) MESSIR-NET IR SAT

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map

Service Mto Madagasikara

Bulletin cyclonique
de MADAGASCAR
Nom: HARUNA Date et heure : 22-02-2013 16:00 locale
TYPE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
Position en coordonnes gographique LE CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA A ATTERRI SUR LES COTES SUD-OUEST MALAGASY DANS LE DISTRICT DE MOROMBE AU NIVEAU DE CAP SAINT-VINCENT.
Position par rapport à un lieu HARUNA A TRAVERSE LES DISTRCTS DE MOROMBE ET TOLIARA OU IL SE TROUVE A 50KM A LEST DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA
Pression du vent estim près du centre
Vitesse du vent estim près du centre Vent moyen 105KM/H
Rafales 150KM/H
Dplacement observ LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN PASSANT PAR LES DISTRCITS DE TOLIARA, BETIOKY-ATSIMO ET BEKILY POUR SORTIR EN MER AU NIVEAU DE DISTRICT DAMBOVOMBE LE SAMEDI MATIN
COMMENTAIRES
DES PLUIES TORENTIELLES SERONT ENCORE ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS CONCERNEES ET LA MER EST TRES GROSSE AUSSI LA MONTEE DES EAUX DE LA MER (FORTE HOULE) SUR TERRE EST-ELLE FORTEMENT A CRAINDRE SUR LES COTES SUD DE LILE
AVIS D’AVERTISSEMENT AVIS DE MENACE AVIS DE DANGER IMMINENT AVIS D’ALERTES LEVEES
MAHABO, IKALAMAVONY, FIANARANTSOA I-II, AMBALAVAO, IKONGO, IVOHIBE, VONDROZO, MANAKARA, VOHIPENO ET FARAFANGANA. MANJA , MORONDAVA, ANKAZOABO, BEROROHA, IHOSY, BETROKA, IAKORA, MIDONGY-ATSIMO, VANGAINDRANO ET BEFOTAKA. MOROMBE, TOLIARA I-II, AMPANIHY, BETIOKY-ATSIMO, SAKARAHA, BENENITRA, BEKILY, BELOHA, TSIHOMBE, AMBOVOMBE, AMBOASARY-ATSIMO ET TAOLAGNARO..

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 16H35 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE EX-HARUNA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 26.9 SUD / 54.2 EST
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 635 KM AU SECTEUR: SUD-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 31 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 25/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 26.6 S / 58.4 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 26/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 25.6 S / 60.0 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 27/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 23.8 S / 58.6 E

SE DISSIPANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 28/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 22.1 S / 53.3 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.

BULETIN DARI 24 04:35 Februari LOKAL:

ADA ALERT NO SELAMA A lareunion # DAN TIDAK ADA ANCAMAN CYCLONE ADALAH DIRENCANAKAN UNTUK 72 JAM BERIKUTNYA
**************************************************

SIFAT INI SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH TROPIS OVER THE SELATAN-BARAT INDIAN OCEAN

Subtropis DEPRESI EX-Haruna
TEKANAN ESTIMASI CENTER: 995 HPA
POSISI pada 24 Februari UNTUK 16 JAM LOKAL: 26,9 SELATAN / TIMUR 54,2
(DUA PULUH ENAM DERAJAT SELATAN DAN LIMA PULUH SEMBILAN EMPAT DUA DERAJAT TIMUR)

JARAK DARI COAST Reunion: AREA KM 635: SELATAN-BARAT
GERAKAN: TIMUR-TENGGARA AT 31 KM / H

BERIKUT POSISI DAN INTENSITAS SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH DIBERIKAN SELAMA BEBERAPA HARI BERIKUTNYA:

Subtropis DEPRESI,
PUSAT POSISI ON 25/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 26,6 S / E 58,4

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 26/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 25,6 S / E 60,0

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 27/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 23,8 S / E 58,6

Menghilang,
PUSAT POSISI ON 28/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 22,1 S / E 53,3

PERINGATAN: THE TRACK PRAKIRAAN DAN INTENSITAS ADALAH SEBELUMNYA UNTUK DIPERTIMBANGKAN DENGAN PERHATIAN EXTREME DI VIEW OF KETIDAKPASTIAN MEREKA. MEREKA BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN PUSAT FENOMENA THE, TANPA MEMPERHATIKAN EXTENSION ITS.

————————————————-

BULETIN INI ADALAH SEKARANG COMPLETE.
TERAKHIR PERNYATAAN INI SISTEM KECUALI REINTENSIFICATION.

ZCZC 850
WTIO30 FMEE 230658
ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 241243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20122013
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 54.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/25 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/02/25 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/02/26 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2013/02/26 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2013/02/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2013/02/27 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AMSU CROSS SECTION OF BRIGHTNESS TEMP ANOMALIES SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE ASSOCIATED WITH EX-HARUNA
IS BECOMING SHALLOWER AND LESS SYMETRICAL. THE SYSTEM IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HARUNA IS NOW RACING EASTWARDS UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBU
ILDING IN ITS SOUTH-WEST AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW TO M
ID-LEVEL MID-LAT TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF EX-HARUNA. ON AND AFTER MONDAY LATE, AS
THE MID-LAT LOW BYPASS THE SYSTEM, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE TO THE LEFT ON THE NORT
H-EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.IT IS THEN EXPECTED ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY TO TRACK GLOBAL
LY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE DISSIP
ATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE PROVIDED IN TH
E AWIO20 BULLETIN DAILY ISSUED AT 12Z.
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 850
WTIO24 FMEE 231823
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2013
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/02/2013 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 MN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY
REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
26.4 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for source)
kml icon Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 27.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 54.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 27.2S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241223Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM BUT THE
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON A 240822Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 16S IS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A JET MAX SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 16S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 36 AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Haruna
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
00 GMT 02/19/13 20S 41.2E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/19/13 21.3S 40.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/20/13 21.4S 40.7E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/20/13 22.1S 40.7E 80 Category 1
00 GMT 02/21/13 22.5S 41.4E 110 Category 2
12 GMT 02/21/13 22.3S 41.9E 115 Category 3
00 GMT 02/22/13 22.2S 43.0E 105 Category 2
12 GMT 02/22/13 23S 43.9E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 02/23/13 24.3S 46.3E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/23/13 25.4S 48.6E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/24/13 26.2S 51.0E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/24/13 27.2S 54.1E 45 Tropical Storm

10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

A tropical cyclone has hit the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar. Cyclone Haruna, with its wind and rain, has killed ten people and destroyed the homes of nearly 3,000 others.

Disaster teams have been working to repair the damage wrought by the cyclone which struck on Friday morning.

Even though it left the island 24 hours after it began, torrential rain has continued to pound part of the island, along with strong gusts of wind.

Cyclone Haruna has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. But, it is still expected that a lot of rain will fall in southern Madagascar in the coming couple of days. The south of the island took the brunt of the cyclone. The city of Morombe, which is in the south-west, was almost destroyed.

Sunday, 24 February, 2013 at 06:09 UTC RSOE

 

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