#Narelle (Tropical Low)(SS-TS) 142100Z nr 30.8S 110.7E, moving S at 18 kts – 140113 2245z

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Narelle)

(Image: BOM)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image(Click image for source)

Australia National Radar Loop – Bureau of Meteorology

512 km composite Broome Radar

512 km composite Broome Radar

512 km composite Pt Hedland Radar

512 km composite Pt Hedland Radar

512 km composite Dampier Radar

512 km composite Dampier Radar

512 km composite Carnarvon Radar

512 km composite Carnarvon Radar

512 km composite Geraldton Radar

512 km composite Geraldton Radar

512 km composite Perth (Serpentine) Radar

512 km composite Perth (Serpentine) Radar

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:17 am WST on Tuesday 15 January 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at 2 am WST near 28.8S 109.8E, that is
470 km west of Geraldton and moving south at 23 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened below tropical cyclone strength early on
Tuesday morning. The remnant low is expected to turn southeast today and pass
the south west corner of the state tonight. No significant wind impacts are
expected.

Tides along the west coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Issued at 2:25 am WST Tuesday 15 January 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened below tropical cyclone strength early on Tuesday morning. The remnant low is expected to turn southeast today and pass the south west corner of the state tonight. No significant wind impacts are expected.

Tides along the west coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 28.8S 109.8E 80
+6hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 30.6S 110.2E 100
+12hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 32.1S 111.6E 120
+18hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 34.1S 113.2E 145
+24hr 2 am January 16 tropical low 36.7S 116.2E 170
+36hr 2 pm January 16 tropical low 41.4S 123.5E 205
+48hr 2 am January 17 tropical low 46.1S 131.7E 240

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0813.gif

(Image: JTWC)
TC track
(Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z — NEAR 29.9S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 110.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 33.5S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED AND ACCELERATED
SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED AND DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION
THAT IS FRAYED AND RAPIDLY DECAYING. ADDITIONALLY, THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS INDICATE TC 08S IS NOW EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A COLD CORE LOW. A
141300Z AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION REVEALS THAT THE WARM CORE
ANOMALY HAS DISAPPEARED, CORROBORATING THE ABOVE SATELLITE
OBSERVATION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 19 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Narelle

(from wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
————————————————————-
18 GMT 01/07/13 11.8S 119.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/08/13 12S 119.0E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/08/13 12.4S 118.4E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/08/13 12.7S 117.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/08/13 12.5S 117.0E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/09/13 12.6S 116.5E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/09/13 13.1S 116.3E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 01/09/13 13.5S 115.9E 80 Category 1
18 GMT 01/09/13 14S 115.7E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 01/10/13 14.4S 115.7E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 01/10/13 15.1S 115.5E 85 Category 1
12 GMT 01/10/13 16.2S 114.9E 90 Category 1
18 GMT 01/10/13 17S 114.4E 100 Category 2
00 GMT 01/11/13 17.1S 113.7E 110 Category 2
06 GMT 01/11/13 17.7S 113.1E 125 Category 3
12 GMT 01/11/13 18.3S 112.6E 135 Category 4
18 GMT 01/11/13 18.4S 112.1E 135 Category 4
00 GMT 01/12/13 18.7S 111.8E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 01/12/13 19.5S 111.6E 125 Category 3
12 GMT 01/12/13 20.2S 111.9E 115 Category 3
18 GMT 01/12/13 20.5S 111.7E 105 Category 2
00 GMT 01/13/13 21.2S 110.7E 90 Category 1
12 GMT 01/13/13 23.2S 110.0E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 01/14/13 25.4S 109.7E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/14/13 28.1S 109.9E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/14/13 29.9S 110.2E 40 Tropical Storm

TSR logo

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jan, 2013 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NARELLE (08S) currently located near 21.2 S 110.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


Amazing images of STC Narelle of W Australia coast. Dust picked up over Pilbara http://instagr.am/p/UUf812ybEc/

11 Jan 2013:

Dramatic red dust storm forms while tropical cyclone #Narelle threatens Western Australia:


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