Typhoon #GUCHOL( #BUTCHOY) East Coast of the #Philippines should closely monitor the progress of this typhoon- Updated 15 June 2012 2300GMT/UTC

(Image: wunderground.com)
Tropical Storm Guchol Track
(Click image for source)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0512.gif

(Image: wunderground.com)
Tropical Storm Guchol Satellite
(Click image for source)

MUCH OF THIS IS NOW OUTDATED – THERE IS A NEWER POST ON SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

SEE Super Typhoon #Guchol: #Okinawa should monitor the progress of this typhoon closely Pubished 17 June, 2012 1100GMT/UTC

The intensifying Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has begun its poleward track as anticipated…drifting slowly NNW during the past 6 hours.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Mindanao today and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.” – thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.co.uk

(Image: pagasa.dost.gov.ph)
MTSAT ENHANCED IR Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa)Philippines

As of 5AM, June 16, 2012  (Philippines Time)

SYNOPSIS : At 4AM today, Tropical Storm “Butchoy” was estimated based on satellite and surface data @ 480km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (12.2N,130.5E) with maximum sustained wind of 110kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140kph.It is forecast to move north northwest @ 15kph. Southwest Monsoon affecting Luzon.

FORECAST: Luzon will experience occasional rains. Eastern Visayas will have cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. The rest of the country will be mostly w/ scaterred rainshowers and thunderstorms.

Temperature ranges in Manila : 24C – 31C

JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 10.7N 131.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 131.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.8N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 13.4N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:150600Z 
   161800Z --- 15.6N 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.3N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 23.7N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 29.8N 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 35.8N 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 130.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 
160900Z.//
NNNN

Related:

Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY] – Update #014

Philippines #Tornado & Flooding: At least 2 dead, 37 missing, 765 families & 3,825 dependents, affected in Sarangani flood � Published 15 June 2012 1420�GMT/UTC

Weather: People along Yap, Ulithi, Palau and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Guchol (05W) – Updated 12 June 2012

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