Micronesia/ Yap/ Caroline Islands/ Philippines: Tropical Depression 98W 200600Z nr 10N 136E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Updated 200414 1908z

Tropical Depression (98W)

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM (JTWC)

Yap & Caroline Islands be aware

Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday (See video below) – Westernpacificweather

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. //
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Depression East of the Philippines – WestPacWx

 

Taking a look at the Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday – Westernpacificweather

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-231.56,10.61,2461

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,130

News Reports

Two LPAs moving toward Philippines

“One of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) moving toward the Philippine territory is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 36 hours.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), one of the LPAs was located 220 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Surigao City, while the other one was spotted 1,220 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as of mid-Sunday.

The weather disturbance near Surigao City will bring cloudy skies with moderate to occasional heavy rains and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas, particularly Eastern and Northern Samar.

PAGASA advised residents in these areas of possible flash floods and landslides. It also advised fishermen and seafarers of moderate to occasional rough seas over the Eastern and Central Visayas.

Weather forecaster Gladys Saludes said the LPA is not expected to intensify into a tropical depression as it is already near land.

Meanwhile, the LPA east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, which is seen to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) possibly Sunday evening or early Monday, has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, Saludes said.

Should it enter PAR and intensify into a tropical depression, it will be locally called ‘Ester,’ the fifth tropical cyclone to enter the country’s vicinity this year and the second this month.

Based on the latest forecast models, Saludes noted that the weather disturbance could make landfall over Bicol Region or Samar area by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

“Rains due to the tropical cyclone may prevail over Eastern Visayas starting Tuesday, and over Bicol Region and Samar including Southern Luzon by Wednesday,” she said.

In other parts of the country, the warm and moist air coming from the Pacific Ocean called the easterlies will affect the provinces of Northern Luzon.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.” by Ellalyn De Vera
April 20, 2014

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone (now Extratropical) 23P ITA 140900Z nr 24.0S 155.9E, moving ESE at 23 knots (JTWC) – Updated 140414 1620z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) (JTWC)

Ex-TC Ita (BoM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0726 UTC 14/04/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.7S
Longitude: 155.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [122 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 0 nm [0 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/1200: 24.3S 156.6E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 992
+12: 14/1800: 24.7S 157.6E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 15/0000: 25.3S 158.6E: 065 [125]: 045 [085]: 995
+24: 15/0600: 25.9S 159.9E: 080 [145]: 045 [085]: 995
+36: 15/1800: 27.6S 162.6E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 16/0600: 30.9S 166.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 16/1800: 36.0S 170.2E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 17/0600: 38.2S 170.3E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 990
+96: 18/0600: : : :
+120: 19/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Analysis of the cloud system and ASCAT data suggests that the system has
completed its transition to a vigorous extra-tropical low. Movement will
continue to be rapidly ESE due to NW’ly steering from a strong upper trough over
eastern Australia. Deep layer wind shear over the system is estimated to be 30 -
40 knots.

Surface observations from Cato Island indicate that the system has intensified
during the extra-tropical transition, with maximum sustained winds pushed up to
50 knots. Dvorak analysis no longer relevant. Confidence in the LLCC position is
fair, using visible satelite imagery and surface automatic weather station
observations.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==

No further technical bulletins are expected to be issued for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2314.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_140532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 140900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 23.7S 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 155.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 25.0S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 155.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC 23P HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TAKE ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION ADDITIONALLY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, INDICATIVE OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY HAS
DISSIPATED. AS TC ITA CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER ACCELERATE THE ETT
PROCESS, TRANSITIONING THE SYSTEM INTO A GALE FORCE LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

Other Reports

2 adults & 3 children rescued from flood waters 10km S of Cooktown

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/12/water-rescue-underway-after-ita-newman

MARITIME

WOAU01 AMMC 141222
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1222UTC 14 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous westerly quarter flow.

Area Affected
Bounded by 44S080E 41S110E 41S116E 43S116E 46S112E 50S111E 50S080E 44S080E.

Forecast
W quarter winds 30/40 knots initially west of 090E, extending to west of 096E by
141800UTC, west of 103E by 150001UTC, west of 110E by 150600UTC and throughout
area by 151200UTC. Wind speeds increasing to 35/45 knots south of 47S after
141800UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

WOAU06 AMMC 141232
40:2:1:04:55S075E35095:11:00
IDY21050
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1232UTC 14 APRIL 2014
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Area A: Vigorous flow associated with a low 986hPa near 46S103E at 141200UTC.
Low forecast 976hPa near 46S107E at 141800UTC, 976hPa near 46S113E at 150001UTC,
976hPa near 47S118E at 150600UTC and 975hPa near 49S123E at 151200UTC.

Area B: Vigorous northerly flow developing associated with a cold front forecast
near 42S126E 45S129E 50S127E at 150900UTC and 42S129E 45S131E 50S129E at
151200UTC.

Area Affected
Area A: Bounded by 50S100E 44S094E 40S095E 37S103E 40S118E 46S128E 50S128E
50S100E.

Area B: Bounded by 50S127E 45S129E 45S133E 50S133E 50S127E.

Forecast
Area A: Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 480nm of low in sector from south
through northwest to east, decreasing to within 360nm of low by 151200UTC. Winds
increasing to 40/50 knots within 240nm of low in northern semicircle. Winds
further increasing to 45/55 knots within 180nm in northern quadrant of low
between 142100UTC and 150300UTC.

Area B: N quarter winds 30/40 knots within 180nm east of cold front developing
by 150900UTC. Winds decreasing below 34 knots west of cold front.

Rough to very rough seas rising to high in storm force wind area. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean/ Australia: Post-Tropical Depression 15 (22S) EX-IVANOE 060600Z nr 28.1S 87.8E, moving SSE at 27 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 060414 1332z

Tropical Cyclone Ex-IVANHOE

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) (RSMC LA REUNION)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JTWC)

ZCZC 060
WTIO30 FMEE 060635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20132014
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 96.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2014/04/08 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 101.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 104.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/04/09 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 106.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 107.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, IVANOE HAS TAKEN A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH A PERSISTENT WARM CORE WITHI
N THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAYERS UP TO 600 HPA AND A MASSIVE COLD AIR INTRUSION WITHIN THE UPPER LEV
EL LAYERS INSIDE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CLOUDY SUMMITS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY WARMING. ON THE LATEST CC SATELLITE PICTURES, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE BEGIN TO APPEAR WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETACHING UNDER THE POWER OF THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-
SHEAR.
THE WINDS STRUCTURE IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE FAST MOTION SPEED AND THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE PRESENT I
N THE EAST.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES PRESENT IN ITS NORTH AND EAST AND AN APPROAC
HING POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON A RAPID SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL TOMOR
ROW MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE SST DECREASE VERY RAPIDLY AND BECOME VERY INSUFFICIENT.
FROM MONDAY IN THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT AN EASTWARD THEN NORTH-EASTWARD TRACK BY TERMINATI
NG ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION AND BY FILLING UP. IT MAY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WEST OF AU
STRALIAN COASTS.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2214.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22S_052330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
060000Z — NEAR 25.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 30.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 33.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK
FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS
ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 061500Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

ZCZC 985
WTIO20 FMEE 060619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/04/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENT
RE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/06 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGESTS WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NNNN

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Storms in Guangdong Province leave at least 15 dead, at least 14 injured and 4 missing; more rain due – 020414 1455z

向下滾動為中國譯)(Scroll down for Chinese translation)

The death toll from rainstorms in south China’s Guangdong Province has risen to 15, while four other people remained missing, local authorities said on Wednesday.

Four more people were confirmed to have died on Tuesday, the provincial bureau of civil affairs said in a statement. Days of torrential rain have also left at least 14 injured.

A boat carrying five people capsized near the coast in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Two women on board went missing.

One woman was found dead on Tuesday. Rescuers are still searching for the other woman. After a brief respite on Tuesday, heavy rain, hailstorms and strong gales returned to batter the province on Wednesday and are forecast for two more days, according to the local meteorological center.

Rain and hailstorms from Saturday to Monday affected 68,800 residents in 69 townships in seven cities and forced the relocation of another 3,902 locals by Tuesday, said the provincial bureau of civil affairs.

The disasters have toppled 71 houses and severely damaged another 5,719, the bureau said, adding they have also caused direct economic losses of 199 million yuan (32 million U.S. dollars).

Local authorities have sent funds, clothes and quilts to residents in flooded areas.
Wednesday, 02 April, 2014 at 13:37 (01:37 PM) UTC RSOE

Heavy rain and giant hailstones batter Southern China

(Video credit: Josept Aron)

Published on Apr 1, 2014

At least 21 people have died and four are reported missing after a weekend of heavy rainfall in south China. This is according to China’s Ministry of Civil A.

Hong Kong Observatory

2 Apr 2014:

A trough of low pressure is bringing rain and thunderstorms to the coastal areas of Guangdong. Locally, there were rain and thunderstorms in the evening. More than 10 millimetres of rainfall were recorded over the northeastern part of the New Territories.

 

Weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow

 

Cloudy with rain and squally thunderstorms. Rain will be heavy at times. Temperatures will range between 19 and 21 degrees. Moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh at first.

 

Outlook : Becoming bright on Friday and Saturday. There will be thundery showers again early next week.

Chinese:

“>2014年4月2日由Goaty新聞

四個越來越多的人被證實在週二已經死亡,民政省局在一份聲明中說。一艘載有五人在深圳,毗鄰香港的傾覆海岸附近。一名女子被發現死在週二。救援人員仍在尋找其他的女人。

“>雨和冰雹從週六到週一受影響的68,800居民中69個鄉鎮七個城市和強迫的另一個3,902當地人週二搬遷,說民政省局。

“>地方當局已派出基金,衣服和被子給災區居民。

“>大雨和冰雹巨人麵糊中國南方

    “>發表於2014年4月1日

至少有21人死亡和四個報告後,強降雨在中國南方的一個週末失踪。

“>香港天文台

的低壓槽帶來雷雨廣東的沿海地區。在當地,有雨和雷暴在晚上。

“>今晚及明日天氣預測

多雲有雨及狂風雷暴。雨水將雨勢有時頗大。氣溫將19和21度之間的範圍。展望:上週五和週六成為光明的。下週初將有雷雨了。

France: Severe Weather Warning – Orange Alert for Haute Garonne and Tarn – Published 020414 0730z

Orange Alert for Haute Garonne and Tarn 

Alerte orange pour la Haute Garonne et Tarn

(Faites défiler pour la traduction française) (Scroll down for French translation)

Meteoalarm

Regional Bulletin vigilance .
WEATHER CENTER INTER DE BORDEAUX
Number: 0204SO01
Issued: Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 06:00
by Météo- France Bordeaux
Date and time of the next message: no later than Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 12:00
Type of phenomenon
Wind.
Early event scheduled Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 13:00
End phenomenon provided Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 20:00
location
Early follow-up :
No department
Maintenance follow-up :
Haute- Garonne (31) and Tarn (81).
End of follow-up :
No department
description
Qualification of the phenomenon :
Autan relatively short episode , but requiring special vigilance given gusts expected.
Developments:
RAS .
Current situation :
The Southerly wind continues to slowly build since last night , gusts are generally of the order of 70 to 80 km / h but reach 97 km / h in Castres -Mazamet at 5am this morning.
Evolution provided :
By late morning , the wind Southerly wind strengthens significantly . In the afternoon , gusts reaching 100 to 110 km / h in Toulouse and plain on the south of the Tarn. Gusts of 110 to 120 km / h then relate Lauragais and Montagne Noire , especially between 13h and 17h , windiest period of the episode.
Mitigation is expected in late afternoon and evening gusts should gradually become everywhere below 100 km / h.
possible consequences
Wind / Orange
* Cuts electricity and telephone can affect the distribution networks for relatively long durations .
* Roofs and chimneys may be damaged.
* The tree branches may break. Vehicles can be deported.
* Road traffic may be disrupted , especially on secondary roads in forest areas .
* [ The infrastructure operating ski resorts is disturbed. ]
* Some damage can affect the distribution of electricity and telephone .
Behavioral counseling
Wind / Orange
* Limit your movement . Limit your speed in highway driving , especially if you drive a vehicle or hitch sensitive to the effects of wind.
* Do not walk in the woods [ and on the coast ] .
* In town , be alert to possible falling objects .
* Do not work on roofs and touch any electrical son fell to the ground.
* Store or attach objects sensitive to the effects of wind or likely to be damaged.
* Install essential to generators outdoors groups.
See the weather forecast on your department 31 – Haute-Garonne or region

Logo Mto France

Bulletin de vigilance Régional.

CENTRE METEOROLOGIQUE INTERREGIONAL DE BORDEAUX

Numéro:0204SO01

 

Emis le : mercredi 02 avril 2014 à 06h00
par : Météo-France Bordeaux
Date et heure du prochain message : au plus tard le mercredi 02 avril 2014 à 12h00

Type de phénomène


Vent.

Début d’évènement prévu le mercredi 02 avril 2014 à 13h00
Fin de phénomène prévue le mercredi 02 avril 2014 à 20h00

Localisation


Début de suivi pour :
Aucun département

Maintien de suivi pour :
Haute-Garonne (31) et Tarn (81).

Fin de suivi pour :
Aucun département

Description


Qualification du phénomène :
Épisode d’autan relativement bref, mais nécessitant une vigilance particulière compte tenu des rafales prévues.

Faits nouveaux :
RAS.

Situation actuelle :
L’Autan continue à lentement se renforcer depuis hier soir, les rafales restent généralement de l’ordre de 70 à 80 km/h mais atteignent 97 km/h à Castres-Mazamet à 5h ce matin.

Evolution prévue :
En fin de matinée, le vent d’Autan se renforce nettement. Dans l’après-midi, les rafales atteignent 100 à 110 km/h en plaine toulousaine et sur le sud du Tarn. Des rafales de 110 à 120 km/h concernent alors le Lauragais et la Montagne Noire, notamment entre 13h et 17h, période la plus ventée de l’épisode.
L’atténuation est attendue pour la fin d’après-midi, et en soirée les rafales devraient progressivement devenir partout inférieures à 100 km/h.

Conséquences possibles


Vent/Orange
* Des coupures d’électricité et de téléphone peuvent affecter les réseaux de distribution pendant des durées relativement importantes.
* Les toitures et les cheminées peuvent être endommagées.
* Des branches d’arbre risquent de se rompre. Les véhicules peuvent être déportés.
* La circulation routière peut être perturbée, en particulier sur le réseau secondaire en zone forestière.
* [Le fonctionnement des infrastructures des stations de ski est perturbé.]
* Quelques dégâts peuvent affecter les réseaux de distribution d’électricité et de téléphone.

Conseils de comportement


Vent/Orange
* Limitez vos déplacements. Limitez votre vitesse sur route et autoroute, en particulier si vous conduisez un véhicule ou attelage sensible aux effets du vent.
* Ne vous promenez pas en forêt [et sur le littoral].
* En ville, soyez vigilants face aux chutes possibles d’objets divers.
* N’intervenez pas sur les toitures et ne touchez en aucun cas à des fils électriques tombés au sol.
* Rangez ou fixez les objets sensibles aux effets du vent ou susceptibles d’être endommagés.
* Installez impérativement les groupes électrogènes à l’extérieur des bâtiments.

Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
- Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

<p>”>In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014 

“>Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
<p>”>Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

“>Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
“>speed
“>Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
“>speed
“>Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
“>speed
“>Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression “CALOY” (94W) 211200Z nr 08N 128E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Published 210314 2128z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” 

(Invest 94W)

PHILIPPINES: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE (PAGASA)

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 21 MARCH 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CALOY” was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East of Surigao City (9.6°N, 127.0°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “CALOY” is expected to be at 50 km South Southeast of Cebu City by tomorrow evening and at 25 km South of Cuyo Island by Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it is expected to be at 200 km North Northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

PSWS#1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Visayas:Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Iloilo and Antique

Mindanao:Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Northern Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
Potential Impacts of the Winds

•Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky

•Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.
•Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas due to the Northeast Monsoon.
•The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Japan Meteorological agency


Analysis Chart (JMA) (Click image for animation/source)

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 43N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 150E TO 45N 153E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 39N 161E 34N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 35N 155E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 46N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 49N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 180E EAST 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 31N 120E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 177E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Depression Caloy Over the Southern Philippines

- WxPacWx

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Outlook

“Tropical Depression Caloy was named Friday morning by PAGASA following a night of organization and intensification from the

TD Caloy

low pressure center in the Philippine Sea.

Despite this storm being branded a name (the third PAGASA named storm already in 2014) the forecast has changed very little from what we have been discussing all week.

Expect the low to come ashore in Northern Mindanao throughout the weekend but based on IR satellite imagery a unskilled observer might think Visayas is seeing landfall.

That is because of the large moisture inflow in to the storm along Caloys northern Periphery. This will mean the highest risk areas for flooding, landslides and high winds will be north of the storms track in the areas displayed in red blow.

Caloy1 Click the Link for a Full Bulletin Update

Futhermore gale force winds are anticipated up and down the eastern seaboards of the Philippines this coming weekend. Not directly associated with Caloy though but associated with Caloys interaction with a ridging high pressure area pushing in out of China. This is producing a “high gradient induced wind field”. Winds sustained up and down the coastline are likely to be around 50kph. Even in Manila farther north expect breezy conditions this weekend.

Impacts

Impacts

The rain will be the larger impact though from the storm though. Some areas as much as 500mm could fall with generally 100-200mm in the forecast. As mentioned before there is a risk of flooding and landslides in these conditions. Residents in low lying areas and near large rivers should take extra caution with this weekend as persistent rains push on shore.

The video update below is a whole 1 minute long, why? Because my internet cut out and never came back on. So you got what you got right there…

Stay safe out there everyone” – //westernpacificweather.com

NASA’s Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines – phys.org

NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of low pressure “System 94W” coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21. Credit: NRL/NASA(via phys.org)

“The tropical low pressure area centered just east of the southern Philippines appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 21. System 94W appears to be developing and the Philippine authorities have already issued warnings on the system locally designated as “Caloy.”

The MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 94W coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21 at 5:25 UTC/1:25 a.m. EDT. The image revealed a circulation with the center over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The image showed bands of thunderstorms from System 94W’s western quadrant was draped over the eastern Mindanao region (southern area) of the Philippines and bands of thunderstorms from the storm were over the waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Warnings were posted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on March 21 at 5 p.m. Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines today, March 21.

Signal No. 1 means that sustained winds of 18.6-37.2 mph/30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours. In Visayas, those areas under Signal No. 1 include: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental and the southern part of Negros Oriental.

In Mindanao, Signal No. 1 is in effect for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental, and the southern part of Negros Oriental. For additional updates from PAGASA, please visit: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//

On March 21 at 5 p.m. local time, PAGASA noted that the center of System 94W was located near 8.9 north latitude and 127.8 east longitude, about 310 km/192.6 miles northeast of Davao City or at 170 km/105.6 miles East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 94W a high chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day. Meanwhile, PAGASA expects the low to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days and cross the southern Philippines.” -

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

WTPH RPMM 211200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 21 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ZERO NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ZERO NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 231200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 45N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 152E TO 47N 156E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 41N 165E 37N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 36N 158E 30N 152E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 48N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 51N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 30N 122E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 180E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 211800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
SYNOPSIS (211800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS BRINGING GALES TO THE
WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SEAS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 70 issued 1407 UTC Wednesday 19 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 19 1 22.2S 157.7W 110
+6hr 6 pm March 19 1 23.3S 157.4W 140
+12hr 12 am March 20 1 24.3S 157.7W 165
+18hr 6 am March 20 1 25.2S 158.2W 195
+24hr 12 pm March 20 1 26.1S 158.7W 220
+36hr 12 am March 21 2 28.2S 159.8W 280
+48hr 12 pm March 21 2 30.2S 160.7W 345
+60hr 12 am March 22 1 32.2S 160.9W 430
+72hr 12 pm March 22 1 34.5S 161.1W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1355 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 990HPA CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S
157.7W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 24.3S 157.7W MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 26.1S 158.7W MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 28.2S 159.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 30.2S 160.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY TWO for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/1846 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MATIARO AND MAUKE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA
AT 191800UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA AT 200600UTC.

FOR MANGAIA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL BE ISSUED AT 192200 UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2014.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20P_190532sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 23.5S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 25.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 27.1S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 29.5S 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MIKE (20P) currently located near 20.5 S 159.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Avarua (21.2 S, 159.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Pacific High Seas Forecast

Issued by MetService, NZ, at 8:36pm Wednesday 19 Mar 2014 (Local Time)

Forecast valid to 1:00am Friday 21 Mar 2014: Slow moving ridge 42S 170W 41S 152W 30S 140W 30S 120W. North of ridge of west of 140W: Southeast quarter 25kt, with gales as in warnings 320 and 324, heavy easterly swells developing west of 150W after 191200UTC, and poor visibility in rain west of 150W spreading south to 32S by 201200UTC. Low 1003hPa near 40S 127W moving southsoutheast 15kt.Within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise winds 25kt, with gales as in warning 318, and poor visibility in rain at times in sector from north through east to west.Front 49S 163W 54S 154W 58S 143W moving eastnortheast 25kt.Southwest of front:Southwest 25kt developing after 191800UTC. Areas of fog south of 45S and west of 160W.

Outlook following 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Mike near 30S 165W southsouthwest. Clockwise 35 to 45kt about cyclone with heavy swells. Ridge along 40S moving slowly south.North of ridge, Easterly quarter 20 to 30kt tending clockwise and rising to gale about cyclone. South of ridge, westerly quarter 20 to 30kt. Heavy northeast swell east of 130W and south 40S, easing by 211200UTC.

GALE WARNING 325
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Low 998hPa near 42S 126W moving south 10kt.
In a belt 240 nautical miles wide centred on a line 48S 120W 44S 128W 40S 127W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southwest 10kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 318.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

GALE WARNING 327
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
In an area bounded by 25S 169W 25S 151W 30S 155W 30S 163W 29S 169W 25S 169W: Easterly 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 331
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Copy of GALE WARN issued by NADI at 19-Mar-2014 13:17 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone MIKE [990hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 157.7 West at 191200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.2S 157.7W at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 22 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest
quadrant and within 360 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 157.7W at 200000 UTC
and near 26.1S 158.7W at 201200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 324.

Issued at 2:27am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: LOW 991hPa Ex-Tropical #Cyclone 18F Lusi 151200Z nr 37S 171E, moving S at 15 kts. Expected to cross South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington) – Updated 150314 1442z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi

Expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington)

New Zealand be aware!

Tropical Cyclone Lusi

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014

Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.

A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.

Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.

As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.

This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau

FORECAST

Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).

AREA/S AFFECTED

All of Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago

FORECAST

Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Buller north of Westport

FORECAST

Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Auckland

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton

FORECAST

Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.

WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE

HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.

STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.

On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.

The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.

From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.

map showing severe weather outlook

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

You can view the latest Severe Weather Video update here: http://metservice.com/tv/#severe

Please stay up to date with all the latest Severe Warnings and Watches

(All images in this section: metservice.com) (Click on images to link to source)

Press Reports

Australia Network News

Strong wind warnings in place in New Zealand as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi passes North Island

 

Photo: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi brings strong and gale force winds to New Zealand’s North Island, March 15, 2014. (MetService)

 

New Zealand’s weather bureau has issued strong wind and gale force wind warnings as ex-tropical cyclone Lusi moves over the North Island.

The Met Service says wind gusts of around 130 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Cape Reinga, on the northwest tip of the North Island.

Auckland has experienced wind gusts of almost 90 kilometres an hour.

There have also been heavy rainfalls overnight on the North Island, and warnings are in place for the South Island as the depression moves south.

The weather system is expected to cross the South Island on Sunday then weaken as it moves east on Monday.

So far, 10 people have died and two are missing in Vanuatu after Cyclone Lusi hit the Pacific nation.

Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila says another tropical low is forming in the east of the country.

While it is developing, it is not expected to become a cyclone soon.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says cyclone Lusi caused widespread flooding and damaged crops.

ABC/AFP

MARITIME

New Zealand

Coastal Storm Warnings

Storm warnings for: CASTLEPOINT, CONWAY, COOK

Coastal Gale Warnings

Gale warnings for: ABEL, BRETT, CHALMERS, COLVILLE, GREY, KAIPARA, PLENTY, PORTLAND, RAGLAN, RANGITATA, STEPHENS

Auckland VHF

GALE WARNING A23 FOR MANUKAU AND WAITEMATA HARBOURS, AND THE HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 45 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
GALE WARNING A23 FOR BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 40 knots gusting 50 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A20

Oceanic Warnings

High seas warnings for: FORTIES, PACIFIC, SOUTHERN, SUBTROPIC

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Hadi: 101200Z near 18.7S 151.8E, moving ENE at 5 knots (away from QLD) (TCWC Brisbane) – Updated 100314 1422z

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Issued at 11:20 pm EST Monday 10 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10 kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight, with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday. This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 10 1 18.7S 151.8E 75
+6hr 4 am March 11 1 18.3S 152.1E 95
+12hr 10 am March 11 1 18.0S 152.3E 120
+18hr 4 pm March 11 1 17.6S 152.8E 140
+24hr 10 pm March 11 1 16.9S 153.3E 165
+36hr 10 am March 12 1 15.6S 154.5E 200
+48hr 10 pm March 12 1 14.5S 157.4E 235
+60hr 10 am March 13 1 13.5S 160.0E 275
+72hr 10 pm March 13 1 12.4S 163.0E 310

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:57 pm EST on Monday 10 March 2014
At 10 pm EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Category 1) with central pressure
998 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 18.7 south longitude 151.8 east, which is
about 350 km east northeast of Hamilton Island.

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that
the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The
cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10
kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight,
with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday.
This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Tuesday.

Preparation & safety

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

QLD: EMQ

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1914.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19P_100532sams.jpg

WTPS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001   
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 17.8S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 17.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 15.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.7S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 13.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1301UTC 10 MARCH 2014

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hadi was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven south (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and fifty one decimal eight east (151.8E)
Recent movement : east northeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 11
March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 11 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 18.0 south 152.3 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 11 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 south 153.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 10 March 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/coralsea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/Micronesia/ Marianas/ Guam: Tropical Storm 1403 FAXAI 021200Z near 9.3N 148.8E, Almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 020314 1320

Tropical Storm 1403 (FAXAI) (JMA)

Tropical Storm Three (3W) (JTWC)

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK (NWS GUAM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

xx

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack1.jpg

WTPQ31 PGUM 280910
TCPPQ1

WTPQ31 PGUM 020947
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST0900 UTCINFORMATION

LOCATION9.6N 148.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENTWEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
-

AT 700 PM CHST0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
148.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THE TROPICAL
STORM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAXAI IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
GUAM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SAIPAN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURSPOSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Japan Meteorological agency

1403
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TS 1403 (FAXAI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 2 March 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N920′(9.3)
E14850′(148.8)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM)
S170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N1130′(11.5)
E14905′(149.1)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N1630′(16.5)
E15005′(150.1)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N2055′(20.9)
E15255′(152.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0314.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_020532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z NEAR 9.4N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 148.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 10.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 11.2N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 13.0N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z 15.7N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 21.1N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z 25.5N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z
AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Storm Faxai, Westpacwx Sunday Update

MARITIME

766
WHGM70 PGUM 020552
MWWGUM

URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

PMZ151>154-022100-
/O.EXT.PGUM.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-140304T2000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO
14 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

INEXPERIENCED MARINERSESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELSSHOULD AVOID BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF TRAVEL BY
BOAT IS NECESSARYEXERCISE CAUTIONESPECIALLY NEAR REEF LINES
AND WHEN ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

*** High Surf Warning or Advisory (Marianas) ***

*** High Surf Advisory (Micronesia) ***

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1403 FAXAI (1403) 994 HPA
AT 09.3N 148.8E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 11.5N 149.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.5N 150.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 20.9N 152.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Tongatapu/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 15F KOFI 011800Z nr 22.3S 175.4W, moving SW at 12 knots (RSMC Nadi) – Published 010314 2315z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 15F Intensity Category 1

(RSMC NADI)

Tropical Cyclone Kofi 16P Sixteen (JTWC)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

===================

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 10 issued 1920 UTC Saturday 1 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadis best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm March 1 1 22.3S 175.4W 110
+6hr 12 am March 2 1 22.9S 174.9W 140
+12hr 6 am March 2 2 23.6S 174.3W 165
+18hr 12 pm March 2 2 24.2S 173.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm March 2 1 25.1S 172.8W 220
+36hr 6 am March 3 1 27.2S 170.5W 280
+48hr 6 pm March 3 tropical low 29.9S 167.6W 345
+60hr 6 am March 4 tropical low 33.1S 164.3W 430
+72hr 6 pm March 4 tropical low 37.3S 160.9W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1923 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
175.4W AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EASTERN SEMICRICLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE MILES ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 23.6S 174.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.1S 172.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 27.2S 170.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 29.9S 167.6W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
KOFI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2239 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [988HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF NUKUALOFA AT 012100 UTC.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY
020600UTC. KOFI MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NUKUALOFA AT 020900UTC AND ABOUT 330 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 022100UTC.

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVAERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS
OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
020200UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1614.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16P_011732sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011800Z NEAR 22.3S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 175.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 24.4S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 26.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 28.4S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 30.8S 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011653Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NFTF (21.2S 175.1W), APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 28 KNOTS GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993
MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN.

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KOFI (16P) currently located near 20.2 S 176.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3
SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC
AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003.

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 012000 UTC. PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3 SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR.REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 021800 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 05S 178E 08S 178W 13S 173W 16S 172W 21S 172W 25S 175W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 13S OF CZ. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T1 11S 160E 13S 165E 14S 175E 15S 180 17S 178W TO TC KOFI. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17S OF T1. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 AND SOUTH OF 12S OF T1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T2 15S 147W 20S 139W 25S 135W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. STATIONARY FRONT SF 20S 175E 25S 177W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OF SF IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 23S OF SF. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOME SHOWERS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 IN THE AREA BETWEEN 175E AND 168W AND SOUTH OF 15S EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN EQT AND 07S AND BETWEEN 172E AND 160W, EXPECT MDERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. ROUGH SEAS

Japan: Snow storm deaths rise to 19 with more than 1,600 injured. Perhaps more snow midweek – 170214 1640z

Hundreds of passengers rested on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport as public transport services were suspended. Japans road, rail and air travel services faced further disruptions on Saturday, reports and officials said, after a fresh snowstorm killed three people and injured 850 others following last weeks deadly blizzard.

Snow began falling on Friday morning in the capital Tokyo and piled up to 26cm by early Saturday, a week after the heaviest snowfall in decades left at least 15 people dead and more than 1,200 injured across the nation.

A driver was killed on Friday in a crash involving his car and a truck on an icy road in Shiga, central Japan, while a farmer died after a tractor overturned on a snow-covered road in southwestern Oita, local media said.

In a separate snow-related accident, a driver was killed and three others injured on an expressway in central Shizuoka, the news reports said. Public broadcaster NHK said some 850 people, including one in a coma, have been injured in snow-related accidents across the nation since snow hit western Japan late on Thursday.

Drivers were struggling to move their cars in the capitals residential district of Setagaya, while snow started melting and flooding some roads in downtown Tokyo. Television footage showed hundreds of passengers resting on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport in Tokyo as public transport services were suspended due to heavy show.

At least 628 flights, mostly on domestic routes, were cancelled on Saturday at Haneda and other airports in eastern Japan, NHK said, a day after more than 260 flights were grounded due to heavy snow.

Two commuter trains collided at Motosumiyoshi station in Tokyo early on Saturday leaving 19 passengers injured, officials said. The accident occurred as train services were disrupted due to the storm but it was not immediately clear if the collision was directly related to the bad weather. Transport authorities are investigating the case. The storm also caused delays and suspensions on the shinkansen bullet train services and the closure of a number of highways across the country.

Some 187,000 households lost power mainly in eastern Japan due to snow and strong winds, NHK said.

The meteorological agency continued warning of heavy snow in eastern Japan as well as strong winds and high waves along coastal areas, which may cause snow-slides.

Last week, as much as 27cm of snow was recorded in Tokyo, the capitals worst snowfall for 45 years. While much of that snow had melted, the remains of larger piles as well as some slightly diminished snowmen were still in evidence across the city.

Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:36 (04:36 PM) UTC RSOE

Update

The death toll from a severe snowstorm that has swept across Japan has reached 19, with parts of the country being almost at a standstill.

Media and officials said Monday that the extreme weather, which sparked widespread transport chaos in central, eastern and north eastern parts of the country, left more than 1,600 injured.

Officials added that hundreds of cars are stuck on some mountain roads and rescuers are delivering emergency aid to them. The snowfall has also caused major disruptions to air traffic and widespread power outages have been reported in several cities.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to send a government team to help the struggling area. “We will do everything we can to protect the lives and possessions of people in cooperation with local governments and relevant ministries,” he told the parliament on Monday. The recent heavy snowfall first began in Japan on January 8.

It was the heaviest snowfall in the Asian country decades, which left 11 people dead and more than 1200 injured. Snow began falling again on Friday morning. The snowfall also caused major disruptions to air and ground traffic. Japan’s largest domestic airline network All Nippon Airways (ANA) said the snow grounded around 350 domestic and international flights

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

Other Reports

WestPacWxWest Pacific Weather (WestPacWx)

Deadly Valentines Day Storm in Japan Recap

Recapping Fridays Storm plus a look at possibly another snow event by mid-week in Tokyo.

Published on Feb 15, 2014

Heavy snowfall has blanketed wide swaths of the pacific coastline of Japan Friday and Saturday causing 2 deaths and over 1,200 injuries across the country. 137 homes reported damage due to roof collapse or trees falling on them after the heavy we snow piled up on Friday.

According to JMA more than one meter of snow accumulated west of Tokyo in Kofu City in Yamanashi Prefecture, as of 6 AM on Saturday. Thats the heaviest snowfall the city has seen since record-keeping began 120 years ago.

Central Tokyo had 27 centimeters of snow, exactly the same as one week ago and the heaviest in 45 years. Yokohama beat that out with 29CM of snowfall accumalated over night Friday in to Saturday.

Australia: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna 011200Z nr 20.9S 152.2E, moving W at 10 knots (TCWC Brisbane) No threat to QLD – 010214 1437z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Issued at 11:01 pm EST Saturday 1 February 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Edna has weakened below tropical cyclone strength. The remnant tropical low will drift northwest tonight and then north on Sunday into the northern Coral Sea. Ex-tropical cyclone Edna will remain well off the coast and poses no threat to mainland Queensland.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 20.9S 152.2E 110
+6hr 4 am February 2 tropical low 20.4S 151.3E 135
+12hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 19.3S 150.9E 155
+18hr 4 pm February 2 tropical low 18.1S 151.2E 180
+24hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low 16.9S 151.5E 200
+36hr 10 am February 3 tropical low 15.2S 152.7E 240
+48hr 10 pm February 3 tropical low 14.1S 155.7E 275
+60hr 10 am February 4 tropical low 15.5S 158.8E 310
+72hr 10 pm February 4 tropical low 18.4S 162.4E 345

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:54 pm EST on Saturday 1 February 2014
At 10 pm EST Saturday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna with central pressure 996 hPa
was located
over the central Coral Sea near latitude 20.9 south longitude 152.2 east, which
is about 310 km east of Mackay.

Edna has weakened below tropical cyclone strength. The remnant tropical low
will drift northwest tonight and then north on Sunday into the northern Coral
Sea. Ex-tropical cyclone Edna will remain well off the coast and poses no
threat to mainland Queensland.

No further Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued unless the
system redevelops.

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1309UTC 1 FEBRUARY 2014

CANCELLATION OF GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal nine south (20.9S)
longitude one hundred and fifty two decimal two east (152.2E)
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected.

No further warnings will be issued for this system.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Philippines: Tropical Depression KAJIKI/BASYANG 011200Z nr 11.0N 118.0E, moving W at 20 knots. Now over West Philippine Sea- 010214 1342z

Tropical Depression KAJIKI /BASYANG

Philippines:

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

(PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 February 2014

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N1100′(11.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG (KAJIKI)
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 01 FEBRUARY 2014

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of eye/center:At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression BASYANG was estimated based on all available data at 88 km Southwest of Coron, Palawan (11.6N, 119.5E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement:Forecast to move West at 30 kph

Forecast Position:Tropical Depression BASYANG is expected to be at 764 km West of Coron, Palawan by tomorrow afternoon or outside the PAR.

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group of Islands, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro

Potential Impacts of the Winds
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 10 mm per hour (moderate heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and southern seaboard of Southern Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

For more information and queries, Please call at Telephone Numbers 927-1335 And 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9214.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z NEAR 11.8N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 290 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 121.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 13.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 14.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 15.3N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Westernpacificweather.com

Basyang now affecting Northern Part of Palawan

Posted on February 1, 2014

Here is our Basyang Summary

You can download it here:

Baysang Phil Sum


As Basyang traverse Visayas Region it is now currently affecting the last part of its path in the Philippines which is Palawan Province of Luzon Region. The storm has been downgraded by PAGASA into a Tropical Depression and still a Tropical Storm for JMA. Signal No.1 still up in Mindoro Provinces and Palawan as of 5:00 PM today.

With this development Wind Advisory will be still held for Palawan Area and all other Warnings/ Watches/ Advisory are now lowered.

** Remember to refer to your Official Weather Agency!

Westpacwx

More than 18,000 in evacuation centers

Rappler.com
Posted on 02/01/2014 10:42 AM |Updated 02/01/2014 11:55 AM

BASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPABASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPA

“MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said on Saturday, February 1, that 3,698 families or 18,518 persons were displaced by Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki).

Evacuees fled to 74 evacuation centers in Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and the Caraga region, the agency said in its Saturday morning report.

Basyang weakened into a tropical depression as of 11 am Saturday, state weather bureau PAGASA said, with only 10 remaining areas under storm signal no. 1.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development already prepositioned P104.30 million for emergency relief resources, which include standby funds (P54.91 million), 48,044 famliy food packs (P11.67 million), and other food and non-food items (P37.72 million).

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) also suspended sea trips in all ports in Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor. A total of 9,541 passengers were reportedly stranded.

Meanwhile, at least 45 flights have been cancelled since Friday evening, January 31. (READ: Cancelled flights: Saturday, February 1)

Tent cities, hospitals

In Cebu, Saturday classes in all levels have been suspended. The provincial DRRMC said residents living in the tent city at South Road Properties evacuated at the Department of Engineering and Public Works building.

The tent city houses survivors of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) who fled Tacoban and other parts of Eastern Visayas. The worlds most powerful typhoon flattened entire towns and cities, and left million homeless when it hit the Visayas on Nov 8, 2013.

Pre-emptive evacuations before Basyang were also done for at least 550 families in Cebu.

In Bohol’s Loon Hospital, 2 ambulances, 7 medics and 1 generator set were sent to assist in the evacuation of patients who are currently staying in tent hospitals.

Loon Hospital is one of the 14 hospitals in the province that were damaged by the 7.2-magnitude earthquake last October 2013. (READ: New hospitals to rise in Bohol after quake)

The tropical depression is expected to to be either 521 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sunday morning.” Jee Geronimo/Rappler.com

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING
WTPH RPMM 301200
TTT WARNING 02

AT 1200 30 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311200 ZERO NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 011200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX AND AT 021200 ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1402 KAJIKI (1402) 1002 HPA
AT 11.2N 120.3E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 12.2N 117.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 13.4N 115.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.9N 112.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Philippines/ Mindanao: Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton 201800Z 07N 128E, almost stationary (JMA) – 200114 2206z

Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton (JMA)

Philippines:

As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)”(PAGASA)

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) West Pacific IR Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1401

TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 20 January 2014

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°00′(7.0°)
E128°00′(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Philippine Red Cross

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time

MARITIME

GALE WARNING NO. 28
For: Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
Issued at 5:00 p.m. today, 20 January 2014To gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Caraga Region.
SEABOARD WEATHER WIND FORCE
(KPH)/(KNOTS)
SEA
CONDITION
WAVE
HEIGHTS
(meters)
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF VISAYAS
(Samar and Leyte)
Cloudy skies withlight to moderate rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, The Eastern coasts of Albay, Eastern coast of Sorsogon and Eastern coast of Quezon including Polillo Island)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE SEABOARD OF CARAGA REGION
(Surigao and Agusan del Norte)
Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE SEABOARDS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN VISAYAS
(Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan and Antique)
Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE NORTHERN SEABOARD OF LUZON, THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON, THE SOUTHERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Northern and Eastern coast of Cagayan, Northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Aurora, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate, Burias Island, Southwestern coast of Albay and of Sorsogon, Southern coast of Quezon and of Batangas)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON
(Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Western coast of Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Mindoro Occidental, Western coast of Batangas and Palawan)
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 201800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
AT 39N 177W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 177W TO 39N 174W 38N 172W.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 36N 166W 32N 162W.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 34N 171W 29N 175W 26N 180E 24N 175E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40N 170W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 41N 166W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 37N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 37N 147E 35N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 34N 140E 32N 136E 29N 132E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 171E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS ALMOST STATIONARY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 27N 121E 24N 130E 18N 122E 18N 116E 22N 113E 25N 119E 27N
121E FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 10N 107E 14N 109E 14N 113E 08N 110E 10N 107E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 27N 147E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 201800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SEAS NEAR LUZON AND SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SYNOPSIS (201800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO
THE WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS AFFECTING SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE SCS, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR
LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS WEST OF BORNEO.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7 (RSMC La Reunion)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 161300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/17 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/20 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/01/21 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM MOVED BACK OVERSEAS THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 00Z AS IT HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ORGANISATION OF THE CORE OF THIS RATHER SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
MW PRESENTATION (CF TRMM PASS AT 0812Z). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES (GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF 1130Z) … WITH LACK OF OTHER OBJECTIVE EVIDENCES
TO PRECISE THIS ASSESSMENT.
UP TO SATURDAY, ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
AND THEN A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BEYOND, THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCES AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS MEAN
UP TO SATURDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 3 LATEST OUTPUTS OF
ECMWF.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ONLY A MODERATE
NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AS A NEGATIVE FACTOR THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE MERIDIAN TRACK. BEYOND, THE CHANGE IN THE HEADING AND A
LOWER FORWARD MOTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THE
SHEAR IS EVEN EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARII,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING SUGGESTED AT LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0914.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 20.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 18.9S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm NINE (09S) currently located near 20.2 S 43.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR) Storm Tracker Map (Click image for source)

MARITIME

ZCZC 144
WTIO24 FMEE 161226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTER
AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

Tropical Low 1

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Sun Jan 12 10:30:00 2014 at Sun Jan 12 20:30:00 2014 AEST

MSLP Analysis for Mon Jan 13 06:00:00 2014 AUTC

Australian Weather Watch Radar Network (link)

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:01 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 4 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 10 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 4 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 10 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 10 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 10 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 10 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 10 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday

WA

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 9:32 pm WST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 8 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 8 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 8 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 8 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 12:30 am WST Wednesday

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9  
Issued at 10:55 pm CST [9:25 pm WST] on Tuesday 14 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
395 kilometres east northeast of Wyndham and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move
in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If
the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then
there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth
and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border
during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly
River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities,
there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the
NT border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near…… 13.7 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January [12:30 am
WST Wednesday 15 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210IDD20040

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem, Roper-McArthur, Victoria River and Barkly Districts, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Issued at 11:07 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa, was near latitude
13.7S, longitude 131.3E, about 150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin. The
low is currently over the northwest Top End and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, close to the coast near the NT/WA Border.

Heavy rain over the Arnhem, eastern Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts,
including the Tiwi Islands may lead to flash flooding overnight and during
Wednesday.

A vigorous monsoon has developed along the north coast of the Top End.
Monsoonal squalls with locally damaging wind gusts up to 95 km/h are expected
along the Territory coastline tonight and during Wednesday. Locally damaging
wind gusts to 95 km/h are also possible with thunderstorms over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts, extending into the Victoria
River and Barkly Districts on Wednesday afternoon.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system – telephone 1300 659
211 (NT)

Noonamah in Darwin’s rural area has received 153.2 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today and flash flooding has also been reported in the Darwin rural
area.  Upper Adelaide River has also reported 135.8 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today.

McCluer Island on the north Arnhem coast has reported 83 km/h wind gusts at
11:12 am and at 6:01pm today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous – avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January.

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
http://www.bom.gov.au.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZJAN2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S 73.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from WA/NT Border to Cape Wessel
Issued at 11:05 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of 13.7 S
131.3 E about 80 nautical miles south southeast of Darwin with central pressure
996 hectopascals moving southwest at 9 knots.

The low is expected to move southwest over the western Top End and may move
into the Timor Sea during Wednesday. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours if it moves over water.

Centre forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 S 129.1 E about 240
nautical miles south southwest of Darwin at 9:30 pm CST Wednesday.

Gale Warning
From Daly River Mouth to WA/NT Border…
West to southwest winds 20/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots overnight. Winds
increasing further to clockwise 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the low
if it develops into a cyclone. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 2 metres,
rising to 3 metres overnight, and to 3.5 metres if the low develops into a
cyclone. A 2 metre westerly swell developing on Wednesday.

Strong Wind Warning
From Daly River Mouth to Cape Wessel….
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Wessel. Winds reaching 25/33 knots over offshore waters between Cape Don and
Cape Wessel, easing in the morning. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising
to 3 metres. A 2 to 3 metre west to northwest swell over offshore waters in the
north, extending to offshore waters in the west later Wednesday. These
conditions should persist for another 24 to 48 hours.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 AM CST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

————————– End of warning —————————-

METAREA10&11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN-AREA / 1340

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:14S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1340UTC 14 JANUARY 2014

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal three east (131.3E) over land.
Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the southern Timor Sea in the
next 6 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 20 knots near the centre.

Clockwise winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre may develop if
the low moves over water, with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 15 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 south 130.0 east over
land
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots
At 1200 UTC 15 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 south 129.1 east over
land
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 20 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 14 January 2014.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 08S COLIN 100900Z nr 12.7S 83.1E, moving WSW at 13 knots (JTWC) – 100114 1125z

Tropical Cyclone Colin

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 278
WTIO30 FMEE 100726
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 170 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/10 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/14 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/15 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5+
THE DEEP CONVECTION FLUCTUATED WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RELATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS DEGRADE A LITTLE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE METEOSAT7
MULTISPECTRAL PICTURES.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE
BUOY 56552 MEASURED PRESSURE AT 09/21Z, VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AT
THAT TIME.
THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A REGULAR
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RELAX AS SYSTEM SHIFTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WINDOW OF DEEPENING UP TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE SLOW DEEPENING AT FIRST, SHOULD
ACCELERATE A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST
AND THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0814.gif

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 12.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 14.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 15.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 19.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.3S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 27.4S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM’S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

ZCZC 214
WTIO20 FMEE 100656
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE WESTER
N SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDIN
G UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

Tonga/Vavau: Severe Tropical Cyclone 07 IAN (=CAT4 HURRICANE SS) 102100Z nr 19.3S 174.6W, moving S at 5 knot (JTWC) – 100114 2155z

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian

 

Category Cyclone 4 (RSMC NADI)

 

= CAT 4 (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

(RSMC NADI)

 

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Tonga.jpg

 

7570 people live on the Haapai Islands (Census 2006), Vavau Population 14922 (as of 2011) in path of TC Ian

 

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

TROPICALCYCLONETHREATTRACKMAP

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN Category 4

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 25 issued 2013 UTC Friday 10 January 2014

 

 

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

 

 

 

Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds

 

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

 

 

 

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN
Situation At: 1800 UTC Friday 10 January 2014
Location: 18.8S, 174.7W
Recent Movement: SSE at 12 km/h

 

 

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

 

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

 

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1940 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN 07F CENTRE 938HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS.

 

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

EYE WELL DEFINED IN VIS/IR. IAN LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW ENHANCED TO SOUTH BY JET STREAM
LOCATED ON THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROCHING UPPER TROUGH. SST AROUND
28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDING DT OF 5.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

 

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.1S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.6S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 23.2S 173.1W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.0S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC.

 

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY FIVE for Tonga ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI
GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE [938HPA] CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
HAAPAI AT 101900 UTC. IAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145
KNOTS.

 

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT
95 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAAPAI AT 110700 UTC AND ABOUT 185 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAAPAI AND ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT
111900UTC.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

 

FOR THE VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUP:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
105 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 40 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.

 

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102300UTC OR EARLIER

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0714.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07P_100532sair.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z NEAR 18.9S 174.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z 20.4S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z 23.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z 25.0S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z 28.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z 34.1S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM
EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY
DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72,
TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN.

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

(Image: wunderground.com)

 

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2014 18:00 GMT

 

 

 

Very Intense TC IAN (07P) currently located near 18.9 S 174.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

Emergency Management in the Kingdom of Tonga

 

Tonga Red Cross Society

 

(Links from doctoradvice4u.com)

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1800

 

WHPS01 NFFN 101800
HURRICANE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/1857 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE 938HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8 SOUTH
174.7 WEST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

 

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 111800 UTC.

 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.1S 174.3W AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 173.7W AT 111800 UTC.

 

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 023.

 

Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 9:25am on Saturday the 11th of January 2014

 

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, KORO SEA AND LAU WATERS .

 

Situation: A fresh to strong southerly wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midday tomorrow for Fiji waters: For Vatu-i-ra passage, Koro Sea and Lau Waters: South to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. For the rest of Fiji waters: South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas.

It’s Officially Too Cold Even for Polar Bears

Originally posted on NewsFeed:

Here’s how most jokes about the below freezing temperatures will go today:

Man it’s cold!

How cold is it?

It’s so cold even polar bears aren’t crazy enough to be outside!

Truth is, if you hear this one-liner, it’s likely in reference to Anana, the lone polar bear resident of Chicago’s Lincoln Park Zoo. She’s been moved to a climate controlled environment to stay out of the city’s hyper frigid weather Tuesday, which went as low as 9 degrees below zero.

Typically polar bears inhabit environments that are always this cold. Average winter temperatures in the arctic circle can be as frigid as 40 below, which is what wind chills were expected to be in Chicago on Tuesday. But the animals who live at the North Pole tend to put on a layer of fat before winter sets in that would keep them warm. Zookeepers say Anana hasn’t put…

View original 81 more words

‘Polar vortex’ to blast frigid air over much of US

Originally posted on New Pittsburgh Courier:

People fill their gas tank at a gas station in Chicago, Jan. 3,. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

People fill their gas tank at a gas station in Chicago, Jan. 3,. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The weather warnings are dire: Life threatening wind chills. Historic cold outbreak.

Winter is normally cold, but starting Sunday tundra-like temperatures are poised to deliver a rare and potentially dangerous sledgehammer blow to much of the Midwest, driving temperatures so far below zero that records will shatter.

One reason? A “polar vortex,” as one meteorologist calls it, which will send cold air piled up at the North Pole down to the U.S., funneling it as far south as the Gulf Coast.

The temperature predictions are startling: 25 below zero in Fargo, N.D., minus 31 in International Falls, Minn., and 15 below in Indianapolis and Chicago. At those temperatures, exposed skin can get frostbitten in minutes and hypothermia can quickly set in because wind chills could hit 50…

View original 614 more words

UK Weather: How stormy has it been and why?

Originally posted on Met Office News Blog:

Since the start of December the UK has seen a prolonged period of particularly unsettled weather, with a series of storms tracking in off the Atlantic bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

The windiest month since 1993

In order to compare the recent spell with the numerous stormy periods of weather in the past the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre has done an analysis of the number of weather stations in the UK which have registered winds over certain thresholds since the start of December.

This measure suggests that December 2013 is the stormiest December in records dating back to 1969 and is one of the windiest calendar months for the UK since January 1993.

December was also a very wet month across the UK, particularly in Scotland where it was the wettest December and wettest month overall in the records dating back to 1910.

But why has this…

View original 447 more words

La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa

 

= Tropical Storm strength (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

(Please note time stamps on images/text)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: meteo.fr) La Reunion Radar

 

ZCZC 171
WTIO30 FMEE 031757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 410 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/05 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/01/06 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/01/06 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
UNDER THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER MARGINAL AND LOWERING OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT (SST BETWEEN 26.0 DG AND 26.5 DG).
BEJISA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD KEEP ON UNDERGOING THE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER L
EVEL WIND-SHEAR ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS WIND-SHEAR WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT DUE THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION OF THE TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY STAY LOCATED TEMPORARILY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THEN THE WEAKENING MAY BE LESS RAPID. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE AGAIN MORE RAPID ON SUNDAY WITH TH
E STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION FROM SUNDAY AND FILL UP MONDAY OR TUESDAY FAR AW
AY IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

Prvisions pour La Runion du Vendredi 03/01/14 17 h, valable pour la nuit prochaine et la journe du Samedi 04/01/14

 

Situation gnrale:

La Runion est en Phase de Sauvegarde.
Le flux s’oriente au secteur Nord-Ouest en faiblissant progressivement.
Pour information: La forte tempte tropicale BEJISA se situait 16 heures 240 km au secteur Sud de La Runion.

 

Prvisions pour la nuit prochaine:

La situation mtorologique se calme progressivement. Le ciel sera moins nuageux et les prcipitations vont continuer s’attnuer. Elles devraient se limiter l’ouest d’une ligne situe de St Joseph Ste Suzanne au cours de la nuit prochaine.

Le vent continue de faiblir. Il reste toutefois modr sur les rgion Est et Sud-Ouest de l’le avec des rafales de l’ordre de 60 km/h environ. Il souffle aussi sur St Denis et sur Petite Ile.

Prvisions pour le Samedi 04/01/14

Quelques averses sont encore attendues au lever du jour de St Gilles Ste Marie puis la situation s’arrange sur l’ensemble du dpartement. Les claircies sont plus gnreuses et les priodes ensoleilles plus nombreuses au cours de la matine, aussi bien sur les plaines, dans les cirques que sur les plages.

Au cours de l’aprs-midi, la grisaille s’installe sur le relief avec des prcipitations localement modres au sud d’une ligne allant de St Benoit St Leu. Le long du littoral, alternance d’claircies et de passages nuageux.

Le vent souffle du Nord-Ouest avec des rafales atteignant 50 55 km/h de La Possession Ste Suzanne et de Petite Ile Grand Bois. Ailleurs, les brises prdominent.

La mer est agite forte. Une houle de Sud-Sud-Ouest de 2m50 3m gnre par la Forte Tempte Tropicale BEJISA dferle sur les ctes Ouest et Sud de la Runion. Elle faiblit en fin de journe.

La plus grande prudence est recommande sur le littoral Ouest et Sud en raison de la houle.

 

Horaires des mares La Pointe des Galets le Samedi 04/01/14:

Basse : 09:31 et 21:58

Haute : 03:38 et 15:34

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

 

Thu, Jan 2, 2014

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

ELEVENTH AND LAST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20H00 ON THURSDAY 02
JANUARY 2014.

 

At 19h00 cyclone BEJISA was located near latitude 21.6 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees
east that is at about 275 km to the west south west of Le Morne. it is moving in a general south
easterly direction at about 14 km/h to eventually recurve towards the south.
On this trajectory BEJISA has started to move away from the region and hence no cyclonic conditions may occur over Mauritus.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

The showery weather will persist and will cause accumulation of water in some places. The
moisture in the lower atmosphere will maintain thick fog during the night and early morning.
The road users and the public at large are advised to be very cautious.
Wind will blow from the Northern sector with gusts of the order of 70 to 80 km/h in exposed places.
Sea will remain high with heavy swells and risks of beach inundation mainly to the Northern,
Western and Southern sectors. Ventures at sea are strictly forbidden.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0614.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06S_031730sair.jpg

 

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031800Z — NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2014 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 23.1 S 55.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA7 & 8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 1757

 

WTIO22 FMEE 031757
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/01/2014 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (JTWC)

= CAT1 strength (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intensity Category 1) Christine BOM

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

National Radar image

National Radar image (Image: BOM)
CLICK IMAGE FOR RADAR ANIMATION

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 2:33 pm WST Tuesday 31 December 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 50.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been issued for the Pilbara.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Name:Tropical Cyclone Christine

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm December 31 1 23.5S 117.4E 35
+6hr 8 pm December 31 1 24.7S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 am January 1 1 25.9S 119.8E 80
+18hr 8 am January 1 tropical low 27.3S 121.6E 105
+24hr 2 pm January 1 tropical low 28.8S 123.5E 130
+36hr 2 am January 2 tropical low 30.3S 128.5E 165
+48hr 2 pm January 2 tropical low 32.1S 134.1E 200
+60hr 2 am January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 2 pm January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 31 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 1, was estimated to be
45 kilometres southwest of Paraburdoo and
315 kilometres south of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts
of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving
south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the
cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern
parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western
Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the
cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe
winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during
Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been
issued for the Pilbara.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately
head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three
Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna,
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar,
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson,
Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds
is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside
as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near…… 23.5 degrees South 117.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 31 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

WA: DFES

Australian Red Cross

Twitter @RedCrossAU

redcross.org.au

Call theRed Cross office in your state and ask for the emergency services department.

You can also email them.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0514.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_301132sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE (05S) currently located near 21.1 S 117.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

NONE

Our change in the weather and how the jet stream is driving it

Originally posted on Met Office News Blog:

After a quiet spell of weather courtesy of a slow moving area of high pressure, we are now entering an unsettled period as a series of Atlantic depressions are expected to pass close to the northwest of Britain during the next week.

High pressure has now moved away and is settled over Europe and a powerful jet stream is developing over the Atlantic which will be the main driving force behind this spell of unsettled weather.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big…

View original 417 more words