What is a MCS (Mesoscale convective system) ? Find out here!

Originally posted on James' Weather Blog:

Sometimes a group of strong thunderstorms can organise themselves into an MCS, which produces a very characteristic radar and satellite signature. If they reach certain requirements (Cloud temp and size, along with duration), they can be classified as a MCC (Mesoscale convective complex). Good shear/CAPE/moisture are fundamentals.

Here are some images of what they look like via radar and satellite, snapshots of the recent MCS that came over south eastern England a few days back. First the radar, from Netweather.

Capture

At this point the system was weakening, but it still had structure. It was moving in a north east direction, note the intense convection cells followed by a heavier, more uniform, steady (stratiform) rainfall. The t-storms in the centre of England formed after only a few minutes before this snapshot, probably due to the cold downdraft from the MCS forcing convergence and pushing surrounding air upwards, kick-starting convection.

Here is…

View original 271 more words

France: Tornado kills 2 campers in Ardèche and Gard. 16 injured across Rhone-Alpes – Published 210714 1920z (UTC)

Two campers died when a tornado ripped through neighbouring campsites in Ardèche and Gard yesterday, on a weekend that saw much of France battered by storms.

A 50-year-old camper was killed when the tornado touched down at a campsite in Saint-Just d’Ardèche, causing trees to fall on dozens of tents. And a 46-year-old woman was fatally injured when the same tornado felled a tree at a site in Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson.

A total 40 campers were evacuated as the twister damaged a number of trees. The twin tragedies in Ardèche and Gard were caused as storms that swept across France passed through Cévennes and Nimes before returning to the Rhône Gard.

Elsewhere, hailstones the size of golf balls left 10 people injured and forced organisers to call a halt to a planned concert by Vanessa Paradis at the Grand Souk festival in Riberac, Dordogne, on Saturday.

Meanwhile, 1,000 jazz fans had to be evacuated from a festival concert in Saint-Emilion. Planned events on Sunday were also cancelled as volunteers cleared up after the storm.

Six scouts from Oise were taken to hospital in Gironde, on Saturday, after suffering lightning burns while on a camping trip in Saint-Simon de Pellouaille. Across Aquitaine, 8,500 households were left without power as storms swept through the region on Saturday night.

Monday, 21 July, 2014 at 10:05 (10:05 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

The Local

Storms leave two dead on French camp-sites

Published: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00
Updated: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00

Storms leave two dead on French campsites

A tornado ripped through a campsite in south-central France leaving one man dead. Photo: Screengrab France 2 TV

The tornado hit a campsite in the town of Saint-Just-d’Ardeche, pulling down trees and destroying caravans and tents on Sunday afternoon.

A 42-year-old Frenchman died when a tree fell on him as the tornado hit. Five others were left injured although their conditions are not believed to be life-threatening.

Captain François Degrange, from the local police told AFP that trees had been brought down over a three to four kilometer radius.

“I have never seen that in my career before,” he said.

In a separate incident a woman was also killed by a falling tree at a campsite at Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson in the neighbouring Gard department.

According to Midi-Libre newspaper a baby was also injured as the storms hit and had to be rushed to hospital.

Hundreds of campers in the region have had to be evacuated.

The storms, which brought the mini-heatwave to an abrupt end, were accompanied by gale force winds and hailstones the size of tennis balls in some regions.

Nine departments in eastern France remained on alert for storms on Sunday evening, while other areas of north eastern France were on alert for heavy rain and floods.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 19 July 2014 1430z (GMT/UTC)

*UK*

UK Met Office

AMBER WARNING of RAIN for much of England and east Wales.

Valid from 0015 on Saturday 19th July until 2345 on Saturday 19th July.

YELLOW EARLY WARNINGS of RAIN

(see below)

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION

Valid until 23:00GMT on Saturday 19th July 2014
See below

3 Flood Warnings currently, 0 in Scotland

at 15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

There are 57 Flood Alerts , 3 in Scotland

at 15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

*Europe Severe Weather Warnings*

Meteoalarm Red Warnings:

None

Meteoalarm Orange Warnings:

AUSTRIA BELGIUM SPAIN FRANCE HUNGARY ITALY LUXEMBOURG MONTENEGRO POLAND UK

 

ESTOFEX Storm Forecast:

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for England, France and BeNeLux for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Switzerland mainly for large hail.

(See below)

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating (some seem stuck on 1st Jan) on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

 

White:
Missing, insufficient, outdated or suspicious data.

Green:
No particular awareness of the weather is required.

Yellow:
The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.

Orange:
The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.

Red:
The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

European Storm Forecast Experiment

The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of a team of European meteorologists, and students in meteorology, and serves as a platform for exchange of knowledge about forecasting severe convective storms in Europe and elsewhere.

Storm Forecast

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Jul 2014 06:00 to Sun 20 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Jul 2014 19:35
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for England, France and BeNeLux for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Switzerland mainly for large hail.

For details click ESTOFEX (Link)

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Last Update: 0000UTC Saturday 12th July 2014

No current watch or warning in effect.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

TORRO Logo The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

Report Severe Weather

Torro on Facebook

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2014/005

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 11:45GMT on Saturday 19th July 2013

Valid from/until: 11:45GMT – 23:00GMT on Saturday 19th July 2014

for the following regions

Parts of (see map http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php)

Much of central and eastern England

SE Scotland

THREATS

Isolated incidences of severe wind and hail; CG lightning

Moisture plume covers much of the area with several vorticity maxima rotating northwards across the British Isles. Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms have typified this plume overnight and thus far today, and further thunderstorms will occur this afternoon. Three more obvious risk areas seem to be apparent: 1) On the western side of the plume/EML, from Dorset northwards into the West Midlands; 2) A cluster of storms over N Central France which should drift into parts of SE England this afternoon; and, 3) an area of thunderstorms over the Lincs region, perhaps associated with a sea breeze convergence zone. Elsewhere, any cloud breaks should allow a few more showers or thunderstorms to develop. Other storms will affect portions of Eire, N Ireland and Scotland.

The discussion area has been highlighted as wind shear is somewhat stronger across this area and thus some storms may become more organised, most probably in the form of small lines, capable of locally severe wind/hail. MCS development cannot be ruled out from the acvitity coming out of France at the moment, which could bring a more widespread wind threat. In addition, high boundary layer moisture and low LCLs with any surface based storms mean a tornado cannot be ruled out.

At this stage, confidence is too low on organised severe weather to issue a watch, but conditions will be monitored. If activity looks like becoming more organised, an upgrade to a watch may be required.

Forecaster: RPK.

 

Avalanche Information for the Scottish Mountains (SAIS)

Avalanche Information Service publish the daily forecasts of the avalanche, snow, and mountain conditions at the 5 most popular areas of Scotland during the season.

Latest Forecasts:

Report an avalanche now
Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

 

UK Warnings

Saturday 19 July Published at 13:39

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Saturday 19th July

AMBER WARNING of RAIN for much of England and east Wales.

Several areas of heavy, thundery showers will develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards during Saturday. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times, but where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses.

The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption from any of these elements.

Further updates will appear here.

Valid from 0015 on Saturday 19th July until 2345 on Saturday 19th July.

Saturday 19th July

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of RAIN for England, Wales and Scotland except for the north.

Areas of heavy, thundery showers may develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards into Scotland later on Saturday. The development of these is uncertain, but where they do form, some torrential downpours are possible, with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong and gusty winds.

Significant surface water flooding as well as flooding from small water courses is possible from these storms.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption from torrential rain, frequent lightning, hail and strong and gusty winds.

Further updates will appear here.

Valid from 2100 on Friday 18th July until 2355 on Saturday 19th July.

Saturday 19th July

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of RAIN for Northern Ireland.

Scattered heavy thundery showers will probably develop across western counties of Northern Ireland during Saturday afternoon and spread east on Saturday evening. There is a possibility that there could also be some longer spells of heavy rain in the east later on Saturday. The rain or showers will ease during the early hours of Sunday morning. The public should be aware of the risk of some surface water flooding which could lead to disruption to transport.

Valid from 1500 on Saturday the 19th July to 0300 on Sunday 20th July.

Saturday 19th July

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of RAIN for north and east Scotland and eastern parts of England.

Heavy, thundery showers are likely to develop in eastern and northeastern parts of England through the morning before moving northwestwards into eastern Scotland later. Not everywhere will see a storm, but where they occur torrential downpours are possible with lightning, hail and locally strong wind gusts.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption from any of these elements.

Valid from 0005 on Sunday 20th July until 2355 on Sunday 20th July.

BBC Weather warnings explained

There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow is the most severe is Red.

A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

UK Met Office Warnings current at

1409 GMT/UTC on 19 July 2014

 

 

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Metroalarm alerts in force for these regions at

1409 GMT/UTC on 19 July 2014

 

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

(Photo: kitguru.net)

Just six inches of fast flowing water can knock you over. Do not walk or drive through floodwater

Severe Flood Warning Severe Flood Warning

Severe flooding. Danger to life.

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

Flood Warning Flood Warning 

Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 3 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

There are 0 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland  at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

Flood Alert Flood Alert

Flooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 57 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

There are 3 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

15:07 on 19 Jul 2014 BST

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 9 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

A complex thundery area of low pressure will gradually drift northwards across the British Isles during the next 24 hours. A ridge of high pressure will build from the southwest later on Sunday.

Shipping Forecast

The general synopsis at 0600

Low Wight 1007 expected Holland with little change by 0600 tomorrow. Low Rockall 1005 and low Sole 1004 both losing their identities by same time

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

The general synopsis at 19 July 07:00 UTC

At 190000UTC, low 56 north 46 west 1000 expected 55 north 42 west 996 by 200000UTC. Low 65 north 30 west 1006 moving slowly southwest and losing its identity. Lows 55 north 14 west 1005 and 48 north 12 west 1005 both slow-moving and losing their identities

===============================================

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/maps/britisles/mappage.htm

News Reports

BBC

UK storms cause further disruptionHouse struck by lightning in Chelmsford

Storms cause further disruption in parts of the UK, including flight cancellations and delays, after recent high temperatures and lightning strikes.

BBC

Monthly Outlook

Monday 14 July Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
Summer heat – a flash in the pan?

It’s been a curious start to July. Some places have avoided most of the showers and could do with some rain for the gardens whilst others have seen far too much of the wet stuff. The next few weeks look likely to offer plenty more variety across the UK.

Monday 14 July—Sunday 20 July
‘Two fine days and a thunderstorm’

Although there’s been plenty of warmth so far this summer, it’s taken until this week for the mercury to threaten the 30 degree mark. Heat and humidity build from the south through the week – too hot for some of us from midweek onwards. Scattered thunderstorms will be triggered initially but as the week ends, low pressure and more thundery rain will sweep in from the west. This rain could well cause some significant disruption – watch out for Met Office warnings.

The weekend will see fresher southwesterly winds with further showers likely but also some sunshine in-between. Challenging conditions for The Open golfers.

Monday 21 July—Sunday 27 July
Typical summer weather

It looks like we’ll settle into a familiar weather pattern as we head towards the latter part of July. Low pressure will be closest to the northwest of the UK and this is where most of the showers will be. These could be quite blustery at times, so, as the Commonweath Games in Glasgow begin, expect some cool and showery weather at times.

Towards the southeast, furthest from the low pressure, there will be longer drier spells with some warmer weather too, but with winds still mostly arriving from a fresh southwesterly direction, not much in the way of excessive heat.

Monday 28 July—Sunday 10 August
More of the same

With most children off school, it would be nice to have a clear indication of how August will shape-up. However, the computer models are not giving any strong signals at this stage. With this in mind, it is probably wisest to assume that the low pressure will continue to sit closest to the northwest of the UK, with higher pressure over the near-Continent. So expect some rain (especially towards the northwest) but also some sunshine.

There’s always the chance of some plumes of hotter weather heading up from the south at times but they may well be short-lived.

Next week

As we move further into August, will we see the return of 30 Celsius?

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 21 July

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hainan/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 181800Z near 21.0N 109.4E, moving NW at 20kmh (11kt)(JMA) – Updated 180714 2012z (UTC)

THIS IS NOW OUT OF DATE

Typhoon

Rammasun/Glenda was from 17 to 19 July 2014

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours – WestPacWx

 Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours – TSR

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 18 July 2014

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°00′(21.0°)
E109°25′(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55′(21.9°)
E107°35′(107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E105°50′(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°05′(23.1°)
E104°20′(104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 19/Jul/2014

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

All signals were cancelled at 3:40 a.m.

At 4 a.m., Severe Typhoon Rammasun was centred about 540 kilometres west-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 109.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across Beibu Wan towards the coast of Guangxi.

Rammasun is moving across Beibu Wan and will soon make landfall over the coast of Guangxi. As Rammasun gradually moves away from Hong Kong, local winds continue to moderate. Yet there will still be squally showers today.

Since there will be swells, members of the public should remain on the alert.

Super Typhoon RAMMASUN
at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Position: 20.9 N, 109.5 E (about 510 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 185 km/h
Forecast moving direction and speed: northwest or west-northwest, 22 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
23:00 HKT 19 July 2014 22.5 N 106.1 E Typhoon 120 km/h
23:00 HKT 20 July 2014 22.7 N 103.0 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km

     

  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, and forecast moving direction and speed.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_181132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 20.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.5N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 22.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 23.4N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 109.8E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 20.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
   China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecasts for Super Typhoon Rammasun.

China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirmed landfall at the city of Wenchang on the Northeastern part of Hainan Island. A weather station in this city recorded winds of 180kph to as much as 220kph! The city of Haikou is also reporting sustained typhoon-force winds of up to 130kph and gusts of up to 165kph! Another highly-populated city that this system is affecting is Zhanjiang which is home to nearly 1.2 million people (nearly 7 million people metro-wide).

CCTV has now reported at least one confirmed death due to the storm. 

Radar Image from CMA

rammasun radar hainan

Latest radar image out of Hainan shows the perfectly symmetrical eye now moving into Leizhou Peninsula. Widespread heavy rains

Via CCTV

are affecting much of Hainan and parts of Guangdong Province. Outer rain bands are moving as far away as Hong Kong bringing light to moderate rains in the area. We are expecting anywhere from 200 to as much as 300mm of rainfall over the next 24 hours for Hainan and Leizhou. This will only compound to the already damaging winds in the area. Furthermore, coastal areas will also be dealing with significant storm surge especially along the eastern portions of Leizhou Peninsula.

For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

As many as 40,000 people have been told to evacuate ahead of the storm in the area.

 

Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving slowly northwestward and will continue to bring damaging weather conditions across Southern China for the next 12 hours. It will move into the Gulf of Tonkin and will weaken slightly but will still be a significant threat for Guangxi Province and Northern Vietnam.

——

Storm

Before the storms impact on China Typhoon Glenda (Sawyerean name Gøring, International name Rammasun) struck Metro Manila and is probably the strongest to hit Metro Manila since Typhoon Milenyo of 2006.

The storm has now caused at least 64 deaths, as tallied by the National Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

In Metro Manila, damage has been extensive. Until now power is yet to be restored in many areas, and Meralco announced of rotating blackout as the power supply in Luzon areas are insufficient to meet demands, due to damaged transmission lines and substations.

The rotating blackouts will ensue until the power supply stabilized, and Meralco has not yet established a definite timetable for this.

The strongest winds pummeled the Metro between 6 to 9 in the morning, where ferocious winds battered the metro. Lots of old trees, some as old as hundred years, fell, and many power lines were knocked out.

Roxas BLVD Via Rappler

 

We’ll continue to have updates on Rammasun as well as on the newest Tropical Storm (Matmo or Bagyong Henry) out in the Philippine Sea. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

” –

NEWS

Australia Network News

At least one person killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades: state media

Updated 1937 UTC 18 July 2014

China’s state media says at least one person has been killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades made landfall in Hainan.

The National Meteorological Centre says Super Typhoon Rammasun ploughed into Wengtian, a town on the northeastern tip of the island, yesterday afternoon.

It was packing winds of up to 216 kilometres an hour.

Ahead of the typhoon’s arrival, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated and hundreds of flights cancelled.

Super Typhoon Rammasun has already killed at least 54 people in the Philippines and is bringing heavy rains.

 

The Hainan government says it has ordered fishermen back to port while many flights, and all train services, are cancelled.

State television says access to all scenic spots on the island, which styles itself as China’s answer to Hawaii, had been closed, and 30,000 people evacuated from low-lying coastal areas.

Premier Li Keqiang, describing the situation as severe, says people’s lives must be put first.

“Prevent any accidents that may be caused (by the typhoon) and reduce disaster losses as much as possible,” the Hainan government cites Premier Li as saying.

Typhoons are common at this time of year in the South China Sea, picking up strength from the warm waters and dissipating over land.

Flooding across a large swathe of southern China in the past week has already killed at least 34 people.

Reuters/AFP

Preparing for a storm

  • Prepare an emergency kit based on the list here.
  • Make a note of the location of any item not in your kit.

During a Storm

  • Monitor your local emergency broadcaster for updates, warnings and advice
  • While conditions are severe, remain indoors and stay clear of windows
  • Make contact with neighbours and family members to ensure they’re safe and prepared
  • If you’re in your car, don’t drive into water without knowing the strength of the current and depth
  • Slow down, turn on your headlights and be aware of hazards on the roads such as powerlines and trees

After a Storm

  • Stay clear of creeks, drains and other water ways, as there’s a risk of flooding including flash floods
  • Be careful of fallen trees, powerlines and damaged buildings
  • Don’t go sightseeing, you could hamper the efforts of emergency services
  • Check on your neighbours as soon as it’s safe to do so

For more information, see ABC Emergency’s storm plan page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 994 HPA
AT 11.1N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 13.5N 130.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.6N 127.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.2N 123.6E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 31N 172E 43N 165E 36N 157E 35N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 35N 150E SE 10 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 31N 172E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 30N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 163E WEST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 940 HPA AT 20.3N 110.2E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 1000 HPA AT 10.6N 133.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 181200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC JUL.18 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC JUL. 18=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC JUL. 19=
WARNNING=
SUPERTY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 915HPA AT 20.3N 110.3E
MOVING WNW 22KM/H AND MAX WINDS 55M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
140KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
140KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 22.6N 106.4E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS MATMO 1410(1410) 994HPA AT 10.9N 133.5E
MOVING NW 10KM/H AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR
CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
130KM NORTHEAST
230KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 12.7N 131.9E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 34M/S GUST 38 TO 44M/S SEAS UP TO
8.5M OVER NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 12.0M OVER
SEA NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 26 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 5.5M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF BEIBU GULF=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART
OF BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND QIONGZHOU
STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF GUAM AND ANDAMAN SEA AND
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 34M/S SEAS UP TO 8.5M OVER
NORTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 7.0M OVER AND SOUTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER MID-WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP TO 7.5M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF MATMO=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 181200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SUPER TYPHOON (SUPERT) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADIUS OF GALES :150NM N SEMICIRCLE, 120NM ELSEWHERE.
RADII OF STORMS, HURRICANES:90NM, 45NM.
SYNOPSIS (181200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 181200UTC, SUPERT RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
925 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 10 NM
OF 20.3N 110.3E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OR WNW AT ABOUT
12 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 191200UTC: 22.4N, 106.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M, 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL S TO SE 3-5 M OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
SWELL SW 3-5 M OVER CENTRAL PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 360 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.=

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Philipines/ Luzon/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 160900Z near 15.4N 118.0E, moving WNW at 20 knots (JMA) moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA) – Updated 160714 1153z (UTC)

NOW OUT OF DATE

LATEST HERE

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2NX

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Philipines:

Typhoon “ ” is now over the West Philippine Sea moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

GUAM

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Wed, 16 Jul 2014 21:03:34 ChST

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 16 July 2014

<Analyses at 16/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25′(15.4°)
E118°00′(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 16/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35′(16.6°)
E115°35′(115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50′(17.8°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35′(19.6°)
E110°50′(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10′(21.2°)
E107°30′(107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

#GlendaPH Weather Bulletin #13 as of 5:00 PM, 16 July 2014

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1
Laguna, Batangas, northern part of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro,
Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan and Metro Manila

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_160532sams.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 15.1N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 119.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 16.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.6N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 21.3N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 22.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 118.5E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2014 6:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 15.1 N 119.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Evening Update | July 16, 2014 – WestPacWx

Watch WxCaster PAT’s Latest Video Update on Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda):

Typhoon Rammasun is now moving away from Luzon, Philippines and is heading towards Southern China. Residual rain showers are still lingering across Luzon but we expect those to become more spotty and gradually taper off by tomorrow. Some areas are still under Signal #1 however: Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

IR Image from NOAA

071614 0932z ir analysis

Meanwhile, Typhoon Rammasun is now moving across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and is forecast to re-intensify as it moves across the open waters. Forecasts from different agencies are bringing the typhoon towards the island of Hainan by Friday afternoon and then into Northern Vietnam (or perhaps in Guangxi Province in China) by Saturday afternoon. Heavy rains and damaging winds will threaten the areas mentioned later this week.

We are also watching a developing Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of the Philippines. Some computer models are showing some development for this disturbance and so we will continue monitoring this area for intensification.

 

New Tropical Depression

Impacts from the Storm in Luzon

At least ten deaths (via reuters) have been reported across the Philippines Wednesday due to Typhoon Rammasun / Glenda. This storm brought typhoon strength winds across southern Luzon forcing at least 370,000 people to evacuate ahead of the storm.   The city of Manila was practically shut down following all finical markets, offices and schools being closed on Wednesday.   A 25-year-old woman was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the Philippine disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City in Quezon province south of the capital.   Wide spread blackouts were also reported across Luzon including the Metro Manila area where at least 85% of the city lost power.   A Singapore Airlines Boeing 777-200 suffered a hole on its left wing when wind gusts pushed the aircraft five metres across the tarmac at Manila airport, hitting equipment parked nearby.   At least four southeastern provinces on Luzon declared, or were about to declare, a state of calamity, allowing the local governments to tap emergency relief funds. This includes Albay where the storm made landfall Tuesday Evening. More than 200 international and domestic flights have been cancelled.  

If you have any videos or images from Typhoon Glenda, please share them with us on our Facebook Page. Stay safe!

 

The Agencies

Yes there are numerous agencies warning on the storm. The ones featured in the video above area JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.. To get a good idea on where it is exactly going check out some of the links below.

” –

NEWS

Typhoon kills 10 in Philippines but eases before heading for China

“(Reuters) – A typhoon killed at least 10 people as it churned across the Philippines and shut down the capital, cutting power and prompting the evacuation of more than 400,000 residents, rescue officials said.

The eye of Typhoon Rammasun, the strongest storm to hit the country this year, passed south of Manila after cutting a path across the main island of Luzon, toppling trees and power lines and causing electrocutions and widespread blackouts.

By Wednesday evening, the storm was easing in the capital and markets and public offices were due to reopen on Thursday. Some schools were to remain closed.

Manila Electric Company (MER.PS) said 76 percent of the area it serves was without power, compared with 86 percent earlier in the day.

“Our weather is improving as the typhoon is moving further away,” Rene Paciente of the weather bureau said, adding storm alerts in various part of the country were lifted or lowered.

The number of evacuated residents had reached 409,000, Wilma Cabrera, the Social Welfare Assistant Secretary, told Reuters.

Many of those forced from their homes were in the eastern province of Albay, the first to be hit by the typhoon, the disaster agency said. They were taken to schools, gymnasiums and town halls for shelter.

Officials said 460,000 had been affected by the storm.

Major roads across Luzon were blocked by debris, fallen trees, electricity poles and tin roofs ripped off village houses. The storm uprooted trees in the capital, where palm trees lining major arteries were bent over by the wind as broken hoardings bounced down the streets.

Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio Singson and Admiral Alexander Pama, the executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, surveyed the typhoon-affected areas by helicopter.

“I am happily surprised because of the minimal casualties and damage,” Singson said, adding the typhoon had passed through the most populated area of the country, with about 17 million people living in its path.

Singson and Pama said the government was more prepared after the devastation caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November, evacuating people at risk in coastal and landslide-prone areas well before the typhoon made landfall.

Parts of the Philippines are still recovering from Haiyan, one of the biggest cyclones known to have made landfall anywhere. It killed more than 6,100 in the central provinces, many in tsunami-like sea surges, and left millions homeless.

Tropical Storm Risk, which monitors cyclones, downgraded Rammasun to a category-one storm on a scale of one to five as it headed northwest into the South China Sea. Haiyan was category five. A category-one storm has maximum sustained winds of 95 mph (153 kph) But it predicted Rammasun would gain in strength to category-three within a couple of days, picking up energy from the warm sea as it heads for the Chinese island of Hainan.

 

TACLOBAN HIT AGAIN

The storm brought sea surges to Manila Bay and prompted disaster officials to evacuate slum-dwellers on the capital’s outskirts.

Rhea Catada, who works for Oxfam in Tacloban, which suffered the brunt of Haiyan, said thousands of people in tents and coastal villages had been moved to higher ground.

“They are scared because their experiences during Haiyan last year are still fresh,” she said. “Now they are evacuating voluntarily and leaving behind their belongings.”

Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman said 5,335 families, or nearly 27,000 people, had been affected in Tacloban. Some had returned to the Astrodome, where thousands sought shelter and dozens drowned during storm surges in the November disaster.

A woman of 25 was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City south of Manila.

Nearly 400 flights were grounded during a four-hour closure of Manila airport. Two airliners suffered minor damage when gusts blew them into nearby obstacles, airport officials said.

Train services in the capital were suspended because of the lack of power. Ferry services were suspended, including to the holiday island of Boracay where 300 tourists were stranded.

(Additional reporting by Karen Lema and Erik dela Cruz; Writing by Nick Macfie; Editing by Ron Popeski)” – Reuters

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/16/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSKBN0FL07520140716

 

MARITIME

Marine Page – WFO Guam

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP32 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA
AT 15.4N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 16.6N 115.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 17.8N 113.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 160600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 138E 35N 141E
42N 143E 47N 152E 54N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 38N 148E 33N
142E 33N 138E 35N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 57N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 49N 147E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 40N 175E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 137E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 38N 149E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 111E TO 30N 120E 34N 130E 38N 139E 37N
143E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA AT 15.1N 119.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 160600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.16 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL. 16=
FORECAST VALID 0600UTC JUL. 17=
WARNNING=
TY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 970HPA AT 14.9N 119.2E
MOVING WNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 35M/S NEAR CENTER
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
250KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
370KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
100KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
170KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 65KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 170600UTC AT 17.3N 114.7E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
ELY/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI CHANNEL=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 33M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 6.5M OVER SEA
WEST OF LUSON OF THE PHILIPPINES=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STARIT AND PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER SEA
SOUTH OF JAPAN AND COASTAL WATERS WEST OF LUSON AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERAAND AND MALACCA
STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT
AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT BANADA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 30M/S GUST 33 TO 40M/S SEAS
UP TO 11.0M OVER MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 33 TO 42M/S GUST 46 TO 52M/S SEAS
UP TO 14.0M OVER SEA NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 23 TO
28M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M OVER
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY/SE WINDS FROM 18 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
NW WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS
UP TO 7.0M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 160600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TYPHOON (T) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADII OF GALES, STORMS AND HURRICANES: 120NM, 60NM AND 30NM.
SYNOPSIS (160600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 160600UTC, T RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960
HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF
15.1N 119.1E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 12 KT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 170600UTC: 17.4N, 115.0E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M AND 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.
SWELL E TO SE 4-7 M OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS) LATER.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SCS LATER.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

 

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°50′(28.8°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°00′(29.0°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE350km(190NM)
NW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°40′(31.7°)
E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area SE480km(260NM)
NW430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis 28.3 125.6 945 45 162 400
(W 350)
Very Strong Medium N 22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast 30.5 126.0 955 41 148 360
(WNW 310)
Strong Medium N 21 100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast 31.9 128.0 965 38 137 320
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 20 150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast 32.3 130.6 970 36 130 300
(NW 270)
Strong Medium E 20 210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast 33.2 133.5 980 31 112 280
(NW 230)
Normal Small ENE 25 250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast 35.4 137.6 985 27 97 250
(NW 200)
Normal Small ENE 38 325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast 38.5 142.3 990 24 86 230
(NW 180)
Weak Small ENE 45 400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast 45.7 151.1 996 NE 45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

COMS : 2014/07/09 01:45 (KST)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

 

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

 

Vis Sat

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here.  In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm. 

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Flood Threat in Western Japan

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

 The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below.  For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center.  or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Read More…

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations.  Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Read More…

 

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Read More…

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression DOUGLAS 04E: 051000Z near 23.2N 119.7W, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – 050714 1255z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS 04E

…DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

MEXICO

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Cicl�n: Pac�fico Atl�ntico

US
National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.1N 119.6W
ABOUT 615 MI…990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H.
DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0414.gif

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 051000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050600Z — NEAR 22.8N 119.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 119.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 23.9N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 24.9N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 25.8N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z — 26.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 119.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ24 KNHC 050844
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

FZPN02 KWBC 051130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N135W 997 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM W…240 NM E
AND SW…180 NM N AND 420 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N137W 1007 MB. WITHIN 150 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N151W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 48N160W 1003 MB DRIFTING E. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N158W 1000 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N151W 1006 MB. FROM 43N TO 47N BETWEEN
140W AND 161W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.FROM 33N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 41N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W NW TO N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 43N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.LOW 35N166E 1008 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SE AND E
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N169E 1008 MB. WITHIN 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY LOW W OF AREA 46N159E 997 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM N OF A FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO 44N177E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 46N
BETWEEN 137W AND 145W AND N OF 44N BETWEEN 160W AND 180W AND
FROM 33N TO 53N BETWEEN 160E AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 49N BETWEEN 128W AND
143W AND N OF 45N BETWEEN 180W AND 160W AND FROM 34N TO 50N
BETWEEN 160E AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 138W AND
146W AND N OF 58N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W AND FROM 33N TO 47N
BETWEEN 160E AND 176W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 47N161W AND 39N126W.

.HIGH 34N134W 1022 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N136W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 35N178W 1025 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N174W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N169W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 41N178E 1025 MB MOVING NE 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N179W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MERGED WITH HIGH 36N169W.

.HIGH 57N162W 1014 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER LEE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS NEAR 23.1N 119.6W 1008 MB AT 0900
UTC JUL 05 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS NEAR 24.9N
121.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS NEAR 26.5N
124.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.FROM 11N TO 12.5N E OF 88W…INCLUDING THE GULF PAPAGAYO…NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF
PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 91W… INCLUDING THE
GULF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE
GULF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S TO
SW SWELL.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95.5W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ELSEWHERE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO A LINE FROM 15N110W TO
00N137W…EXCEPT IN LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL…EXCEPT 11 TO
14 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 82W AND 94W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 18N W OF 79W TO A LINE FROM
18N109W TO 15N117W TO 07N118W TO 05N130W TO 00N140W…EXCEPT IN
LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 15N W OF 80W TO A LINE FROM
15N107W TO 06N107W TO 00N140W…EXCEPT IN LEE OF GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO
SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM OF W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
N OF 25N…NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

CONVECTION VALID 0830 UTC SAT JUL 05…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS…ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E
SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N100W TO 08N98W…SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM E OF AXIS.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W-111W FROM 08N TO 16N…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E
OF AXIS.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02.5N TO 06.5N E OF 85W TO
COAST.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N74W TO 10N81W TO 08N98W TO
10N109W TO 08N115W…WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ…CONTINUING
ON TO 10N126W TO 10.5N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 99W AND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN BETWEEN 109W AND 115W.

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS BETWEEN FRONT AND LINE FROM 30N167E TO 27N165E TO
26N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED OVER FORECAST WATERS.

.RIDGE FROM 30N174E TO 25N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 152W AND
167W… AND FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 170W AND 176W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N AND 17N BETWEEN
165W AND 175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 161W AND 168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 166W
AND 176W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 171W
AND 176E.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 163E AND
172E…AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 165W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N140W TO 08N150W TO 06N160W TO 05N175W TO 01N170E.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 168W AND 179W…AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 147W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N…AND 135 NM
S…OF ITCZ… AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 177E AND 179E.

$$

.FORECASTER KINEL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

Canada/ US: Tropical Storm Arthur 01L now heading into SW Nova Scotia – warnings in effect – Updated 050714 1200z

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01)

..ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA… 
NHC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. 
- ENVIRONMENT CANADA

Wunderground. com

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

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National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…43.1N 66.9W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL BE CROSSING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER. YARTMOUTH IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA RECENTLY REPORT A
WIND GUST TO 46 MPH…74 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB…28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN CANADA SOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION…
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MAINE TODAY…BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF
ARTHUR.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Storm Surge
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CANADA

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

 

WOCN31 CWHX 050845
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:54 AM ADT
SATURDAY 5 JULY 2014.
———————————————————————
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
NEW BRUNSWICK
QUEBEC MARITIME.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE CHANCE OF ON THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 43.3N 66.7W

ABOUT 60 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 40 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 MB

2. SUMMARY OF LATEST INFORMATION.

ARTHUR IS NOW HEADING INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA. RAIN FROM A BAND
TO THE NORTH FED BY ARTHUR AND NORTH OF IT HAS BEEN BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN INTO PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK. RAIN DIRECTLY CAUSED BY THE STORN
IS BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA.
INCREASING WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE HITTING THE COAST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH. FURTHER SOUTH BUOY 44024 IS RECORDING WINDS GUSTING
100 KM/H. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE FROM SATELLTE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WEST OF ARTHUR.

AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE WIND AND RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR THE MARITIMES. FOR QUEBEC, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FOR GASPÉ AND EAST AS WELL AS THE BASSE COTE NORD AREA OF EASTERN
QUEBEC AND ANTICOSTI ISLAND. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL BE ISSUEING RAINFALL
WARNINGS THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS
REGION OF LABRADOR

FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. FOR WAVE ACTIVITY, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 5-7 METRE WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE SATURDAY
MORNING AND ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE PROBABLE ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST WITH THESE WAVES. WAVES MAY REACH 9 METRES ALONG THE
SCOTIAN SLOPE.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END
_______________________________________________

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Canada Severe Weather Alerts

 

Canadian Red Cross

 

TSR logo

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jul, 2014 9:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01) currently located near 43.1 N 66.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Surge

MARITIME

 

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0843

WTNT21 KNHC 050843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…240NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 240SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

FZNT01 KWBC 050945
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR NEAR 43.1N66.9W 981 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 05
MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…100 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT…300 NM SE QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 33 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 47.0N61.5W 986 MB.
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM NE AND 20 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. ALSO WITHIN 160 NM NE..180
NM SE…160 NM SW…AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 34 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 52.5N54.0W 989 MB.
WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 45
KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 60.0N51.5W. WINDS 35
TO 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY
BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 58.5N50.0W. WINDS 30
TO 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 62.1N43.2W. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 55N51W 1010 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 420 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N36W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 65N59W 998 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 67N62W 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
E QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ABOVE FROM 36N TO
43N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 360 NM E AND NE…540 NM S…AND 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 600 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 60N
BETWEEN 37W AND 45W AND FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 53N TO 60N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W
AND FROM 45N TO 56N BETWEEN 50W AND 35W.

.HIGH 56N35W 1018 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N41W 1030 MB NEARLY STATIONARY THEN MOVING NE 15 KT
AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N40W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N74W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N60W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MEXICO: Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) 302100Z 17.4N 104.2W, moving WNW nr 3 knots. TS Warning LAZARO CARDENAS to CABO CORRIENTES (NHC) – Updated 300614 2105z

Tropical Storm ELIDA

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES….(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

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MEXICO

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cabos/rad-cabo.jpg

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Ciclón: Pacífico Atlántico

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 301917
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

CORRECTED CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HEADER

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK
…THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL…ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN…AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER UNKNOWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151Z JUN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 17.1N 103.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 103.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 17.9N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 18.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 18.1N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 17.9N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 17.8N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 17.6N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 17.6N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 103.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND
011600Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A. JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 300151Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
300200). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) currently located near 17.4 N 104.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

MARITIME

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERYTHROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.0W OR ABOUT 445
NM…765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED…BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 112W-117W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.3N 103.9W OR ABOUT 120 MILES…195
KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
ELIDA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERSMIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N94W TO 6N95W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 6N85W TO 5N100W THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 12N117W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 133W-136W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO
BEYOND 32N118W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF
25N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N128W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. XXX. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY…BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. GAP WINDS…

$$
DGS

 

WTPZ25 KNHC 302045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Level 2 Storm Forecast for N Italy – Published 290614 1700z

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX (Click image to go to source)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

…Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan…

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

…Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania…

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

…southern Sweden and Norway…

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.

ESTOFEX FAQ

France: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Mesoscale Discussion – potential for tornadoes – Published 280614 1638z

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:00 to Sat 28 Jun 2014 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

…France to Southwestern Germany…

A surface low pressure center lies currently (14Z) at the west coast of France (Bordeaux). A large Atlantic upper trough moves into the region and will provide destabilization of the mid and upper levels, which is needed as 12Z soundings still show inversions at 900 and 450 hPa. A stationary frontal zone is well-defined by thermal gradients and a sharp wind shift (NE/S) running from some 100km north of Bordeaux to Stuttgart approximately.

Observed surface mixing ratios in France vary at 13Z between 10.5 and 13 g/kg with potential temperatures ranging between 26 and 32ーC, the higher values over the Massif Central.
Inserting these values into Bordeaux and Nimes 12Z soundings, the cap can be bypassed in some locations and some 1000 J/kg SBCAPE could be obtained, but MLCAPE will be lower and mixed parcels may have some trouble with the cap.

In fact, satellite shows initiation over northern Massif Central oriented SW-NE and along the front in the west (WSW-ENE). The storms will grow in a strong kinematic environment with large but relatively straight hodographs. Observed Bordeaux 600 hPa wind is 60 kts with 40 kts at 900 hPa. This directly translates into a primary threat of severe convective wind gusts, especially as cold pools join into an MCS. Deep layer shear values of 15-20 m/s and SREH of 150 mイ/sイ initially and over 250 mイ/sイ predicted by GFS at 18Z (SW France) support supercells. 0-1 km shear ranges from 10 m/s in the afternoon to over 15 m/s during the evening (GFS). Together with relatively low LCL (descending to <1000 m in the evening) this underlines potential for tornadoes, and supports bow echoes. Large hail will be possible as well, but the upper level inversion represents a mixed phase region without much buoyancy which could be a limiting factor.

After 18Z the mid level cold front comes in from the west and will likely trigger storms in SW France moving upscale to a somewhat parallel-stratiform MCS over the southeastern quarter of France (this will happen beyond the validity time of this MD).

Tsunami warning issued after 8.0 earthquake in Alaska

Goaty's News:

Town of #Adak, #Alaska evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after #tsunami warning, official says. http://cnn.it/1iA3CVJ

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

Originally posted on KFOR.com:

(CNN) — A tsunami warning has been issued for coastal Alaska following a 8.0-magnitude earthquake located about 15 miles from Little Sitkin Island, Alaska.

The quake had a depth of 71 miles, and was expected to produce a “modest” tsunami, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

View original

#AKwx #AK #Attu #Nikolski #Aleutians #Coast #Wx #US #News/ #TSUNAMI WARNING

TSUNAMI WARNING: EQ Mag 8 (upgraded) 30 miles NW of Amchitka, Alaska. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

Town of , evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after warning, official says.

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

Bulgaria: About 12 -16 killed (reports vary), several missing after torrential rain and heavy floods hit Varna – Published 200614 1752z

Torrential rains and floods hit Bulgaria on Thursday, killing at least 10 people, cutting off electricity, blocking roads and sparking evacuations, officials said.

Heavy rainfall in the Black Sea resort city of Varna triggered a flood wave late on Thursday in one of its low-laying suburbs that killed at least 10 people, the mayor of Varna told the national radio.

TV footage showed smashed cars on top of each other on the streets of the suburb, where a state of emergency was declared.

“The tragedy is enormous. I am here on a street in the suburb of Aspruhovo. The street is not here, the houses are not here, there are cars on top of each other,” Varna mayor Ivan Portnih said. Electricity in the suburb was cut off, the mayor said. In central Bulgaria, firefighters evacuated 11 people from the top of their houses in the town of Kilifarevo, police said. Thunderstorms and heavy rains flooded roads and damaged houses in several villages near the capital.

Weather forecasters said the rains that fell in the eastern regions of Varna and Burgas in the past 24 hours equalled the usual amount per month and warned new rainfall and thunderstorms were expected in northern and eastern Bulgaria on Friday.

Friday, 20 June, 2014 at 03:14 (03:14 AM) UTC RSOE

Weather warnings: Bulgaria
Предупреждения за опасни явления: България

Other reports

“Victims of flood in “Asparuhovo” so far 14.

Source: News.Varna24.bg 14:12 / 06.20.2014

10 are confirmed dead in the city, but may be much more. Three missing. Six people were hospitalized, one of which is a woman in labor.

This morning I got up and two victims in Dobrich. A noon bTV reported another died.

On Wednesday it was reported a man who died as a result of heavy rains in Dimitrovgrad.

There is still no official information on what exactly are the victims of the flood in “Asparuhovo” in Varna. According to different data, the number varies between 10 and 12. Smaller number officially reported at 6.50 pm on Friday, Interior Minister Tsvetlin Iovchev. He added that two of the victims are children. Television correspondent in the city reported 12 dead. According to Mayor Ivan Portnih number is 11.

Divers in “Asparuhovo” continue to look for injured people. The latest victim was removed from her home at 3 am in the morning.” – Source: News.Varna24.bg 14:12 / 06.20.2014

Here’s how you can help the needy and how you can get involved as a volunteer

Source: News.Varna24.bg 18:37 / 06.20.2014

“In connection with the dozens of inquiries from citizens regarding their desire to provide immediate assistance to victims of disaster Asparuhovo of the city of Varna Municipality made the following clarifications:

1. Needed humanitarian materials:

- Fixed food – canned beans, cooking oil, biscuits, cookies, packaged products that do not require refrigeration;

- Sanitation – toilet paper, diapers, wipes, disinfectants;

2. Needed physical assistance:

Regarding the need for clearing hundreds of tons of waste and alluvial materials, tomorrow, 21 June 2014. in the yard of the Red Cross – Varna, “Brothers Shkorpil” № 3 is scheduled meeting for anyone interested in volunteering to help in the disaster area.

Let’s all be volunteers with clothing, such as preference will be if participants bring their action boots and shovels. For those who do not have proper equipment, sponsors of the organization provided 300 sets of boots and shovels, so any help would be welcome. Besides the streets voluntary mass will be concentrated in flooded homes.

After the briefing has organized transport from Varna to BRC Asparuhovo area, but the advantage would be if volunteers come with their own transport.

At the afternoon session of the Crisis Staff in District Administration – Varna was decided to build an entrance and focal point to the district administration Asparuhovo. The point will be on duty around the clock, volunteers and representatives of the Red Cross, which will guide the victims to the accommodation and medical professionals for assistance. Site will be distributed directly and humanitarian aid.

All supplies for crisis point will be transferred to a transport column that starts in 18.45ch. of the Red Cross building – Varna, “Brothers Shkorpil” 3.”

More from Varna24 in English

More from Varna24 in Bulgarian

Hours after tragedy struck in Varna, NGOs Bulgaria’s Red Cross (BRC) and volunteers organised donation campaigns and volunteer teams to aid the flood victims in Asparuhovo.

There are two official donation campaigns – one of BRC and one of the Bulgarian Donations Forum and Nova TV national channel.

The Red Cross activated the donations hotline 1466 – by sending a blank text to the number, people can donate BGN 1 for the flood victims. The organisation also opened a bank account for those who wish to make larger donations:
UNICREDIT BULBANK
BG64UNCR76301078660913
UNCRBGSF(For the flood victims in Bulgaria)

The other donations campaign opened the 17777 hotline. Those, willing to donate BGN 1, must send a text message with the following content: DMS Varna. According to reports, the hotline is overloaded and confirmation texts are being sent back with a big delay.

Part of the donations will also be sent to Dobrich, parts of which are also flooded.

Volunteers from Varna and Sofia are organising themselves through Facebook to collect aid and send in teams to help the cleaning operations in Asparuhovo. The hashtags for the operation are: #‎варна‬, #helpvarna, #supportvarna. The main rally point for volunteers in Varna is in front of the Cathedral.

Most needed are water pumps. Volunteers are advised to have warm clothes, gloves, raincoats, shovels and rubber boots.

Videos

Deadly deluge in Bulgaria kill 16

(Video credit: euronews (in English))

Bulgaria floods cause chaos killing at least 12 – BBC News

(Video credit: BBC News)

Deadly Floods in Eastern Bulgaria, At least 10 killed in port city of Varna

(Video credit: World Voiced News)

 

Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

http://www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for S Italy and Albania/Macedonia. Valid until Weds 180614 0600Z – Published 170614 1540z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 06:00 to Wed 18 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jun 2014 23:01
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for southern Italy and Albania/Macedonia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Tunisia, central and southern Italy, Adriatic and northern Ionian Sea, northern Greece and southern Balkans into Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Iberia and the Gulf of Valencia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Atlantic high continues without a weakening tendency. Arctic air masses will spread into Scandinavia and western Russia at the eastern flank of this high. Polar air masses that have spread into most of Europe will warm in response to diurnal heating, and slightly decreasing moisture and lapse rates can be observed to the south-west of a new cold front that enters the Ukraine, Poland, and eastern Germany in the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms can develop especially below the axis of the long-wave trough from Germany across the Alps, southern France, into eastern Iberia.

Ahead of the long-wave trough, a west-south-westerly flow will establish from northern Tunisia to the Aegean and Black Sea region. An elevated mixed layer will spread into the east Mediterranean, affecting the Ionian and Aegean Sea. Weak frontogenesis to the south of Italy will additionally allow for moisture increase in the boundary-layer, but the capping inversion is forecast to remain quite strong.

DISCUSSION

Southern Italy and Adriatic, southern Balkans, Bulgaria and surroundings

Within the south-westerly jet, a jet streak ejects from the base of the long-wave trough and spreads across the east Mediterranean into Greece. Several vorticity maxima will travel into the forecast area on Tuesday.

The affected air mass is characterized by a rather cool boundary layer air mass with moisture pooling over some regions. Best moisture will evolve over southern Italy ahead of an approaching cold front as well as along a frontal boundary from Serbia to Bulgaria, where low-level convergence exists. Diurnal heating and increasing lapse rates will likely allow for CAPE during the day.

A few rounds of storms are expected to spread east on Tuesday, with widespread storms over central Italy and from the central Balkans to the Black Sea. With 20 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear, especially the southern regions will see well-organized storms, and supercells and bow echoes are forecast. Main threat will be large hail and severe wind gusts with these storms, although excessive rain and a tornado are not ruled out.

Further south, storm initiation is not that probable given the large inversion atop of the boundary-layer. Diurnal heating may support storms over southern Italy and parts of Greece, and some isolated supercells are forecast, capable of producing large hail. These storms may weaken after sunset.

Eastern Iberia

Along the sea-breeze convergence, easterly onshore-winds will allow for upslope flow and moisture advection over eastern Iberia. Steep lapse rates spreading east from the Iberian mountains will overlap with this moisture and CAPE is forecast. Initiation is most likely over the mountains and storms may move east later on. A capping inversion near the sea will likely limit the storm potential. However, near the sea-breeze convergence, 15 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear can support mesocyclones. Large hail will be possible with these storms as well as severe wind gusts, especially when storms will interact with deep boundary layers from the south-west. Convection is forecast to decay after sunset.

West Mediterranean

Near the base of the trough, rather rich low-level moisture and rather steep lapse rates will create some CAPE. Storms are forecast due to some low-level convergence and weal CIN. Given weak vertical wind shear, degree of organization will be weak over most places. Locally large hail and excessive precipitation are not ruled out with the slow moving storms. When clusters can develop, isolated wind reports are not ruled out as well.

The best potential for better storm organization exists south of the Balearic Islands. Stronger deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to support supercells or bow echoes, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. The overall threat is rather weak, though, given the weak instability, low-level vertical wind shear, and lift.

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:00 to Tue 17 Jun 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

Convective initiation is currently concentrating along a seabreeze / upslope flow convergence over Central Italy. Coastal areas see dewpoints between 19 and 22C, which yields CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg according to the 12 UTC Brindisi and (modified) Pratica di Mare soundings.

In the Northern half of the area, deep-layer shear decreases and the background flow starts turning to the Northeast, pushing the convergence zone towards the West coast. Satellite imagery confirms some backbuilding multicells, which pose a risk of heavy rain and large hail.
Further South, storms are stationary or even moving Eastward, and deep-layer shear around 20 m/s beneath the mid-level jetstreak enables good organisation into multi- and supercells. Very low cloud bases and strong low-level shear in the sea breeze regime along the italian East coast hint at a remarkably enhanced tornado risk (refer to the recent Bari metars with 24/22C and Northeasterly surface winds around 7 m/s). Otherwise, large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, as well as flash flood producing rain in case of backbuilding.

Storms continue to travel eastward or form anew along a flow-parallel extension of this convergence line across the Southern Adriatic Sea into Northern Albania and Southern Montenegro. This pattern has already continued for 18 hours and has produced extreme flash floods in parts of Albania. This risk will still continue in the next hours. If stronger updrafts move onshore, all other kinds of severe weather are possible as well.

END

 

US: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO Watch 303. WEST-CENTRAL IOWA , NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE NEBRASKA

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

Particularly Dangerous Situation TORNADO Watch 303. Valid until: 06/17/2014 0300Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

SEL3

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 302…

DISCUSSION…THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE…60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR…AND 500
EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
…MEAD

SSE THE MAP HERE: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

(Video credit: earthspace101)

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression CHRISTINA 03E 151600Z nr 20.2N 113.3W, moving NW at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 150614 1725z

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA 03E

09/6/2014 to 15/6/2014

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

…CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 113.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND
CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0314.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 20.0N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 113.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.3N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 22.0N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 113.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ23 KNHC 151431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZPN03 KNHC 151533
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA NEAR 20.1N 113.3W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC JUN 15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 21.3N
115.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
N AND 15 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 23.0N
116.6W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.S OF 10N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15…

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 07N100W TO
09N108W. ITCZ FROM 07N115W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for NW France & BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes & excessive precipitation – Published 080614 2310z

THIS INFORMATION IS NO LONGER VALID

ESTOFEX Storm Forecast

Embedded image permalink

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

… France towards BENELUX and NW Germany …

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

… England …

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

… Poland …

As EML is advected around the ridge towards east, overlap with modest low-level moisture will contribute to the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind shear should be moderate, between 10 to 15 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer, increasing NEwards to between 14 and 20 m/s. Some strong multicells (or perhaps even brief supercells) may initiate along the ill-defined warm front with attendant threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.

… Russia …

With the progressing cut-off low, a plume of steep lapse rates will be pushed southeastwards, but still, the extreme eastern part of the forecast area may see some stronger multicells capable of large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Wind shear should be weak to moderate, perhaps limiting the supercell threat (and very large hail risk).

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48
Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 ーC), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

To the east and south of the ongoing convective systems, diurnal heating along with backing low-level flow is observed. Further backing of the low-level flow is forecast as surface pressure falls over Southern France. Current thinking is that despite this early activity, best conditions will still develop by the late afternoon with high CAPE values and strong DLS.

SEE ALSO:

(Click image for link)

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/Mexico: Tropical Cyclone developing. Invest 94E 091400Z nr 15.9N 102.3W, moving NW at 3 knots (JTWC) – Updated 090614 1700z

THIS IS OUT OF DATE NOW, NO LONGER VALID

GO HERE http://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/eastern-pacificmexico-hurricane-christina-cat4-03e-121230z-nr-16-4n-106-9w-moving-wnw-at-7-knots-intensifying-nhc-updated-120614-1400z/

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (Invest 94E)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH  -JTWC

HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO – NHC

MEXICO BEWARE!

Weather Underground

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Last Updated 09/06/2014, 13:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Location 15.9 102.3W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 45KPH

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW…AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.

…DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD…PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…WITH VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS…KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE…A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W.
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS…WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE…SHIFTING N-NE WED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

 

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane: (Mon 9 June 2014 1749 UTC) EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – System 94E is rapidly developing- The National Hurricane Center noted that System 94 E is now a well-defined low pressure system and is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight.
The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, which, NHC noted, will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

This GOES West satellite imagery from 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) shows System 94E off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9414.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/94E_091500sair.jpg

WTPN21 PHNC 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

000
FZPN03 KNHC 091535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 11.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1007 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N107W 1002 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND 45 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 127W AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 83W AND 93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W AND S OF 01S
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 124W AND
138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 21N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC MON JUN 09…
.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W THEN
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W…NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF AXIS E OF 88W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression (Ex TS BORIS) 02E 041000Z nr 16.3N 93.8W, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 040614 1251z

Tropical Depression 02E (TWO-E)

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO(NHC)

(Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española) (Scroll down for Spanish translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 040831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT0900 UTCINFORMATION
-
LOCATION16.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI140 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS35 MPH55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENTN OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1003 MB29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAPLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 200 AM PDT0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTHLONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH7 KM/HAND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACKTHE DEPRESION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH55
KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-
RAINFALLBORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS FROM
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON
THE COAST OF CHIAPAS RECIEVED NEAR 8.5 INCHES213 MMOF RAIN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z NEAR 16.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z 17.0N 93.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 18.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 93.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

 

Other

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jun, 2014 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BORIS (02E) currently located near 16.2 N 93.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Hurricane:

E. PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Infrared Imagery Sees Heavy Rain Potential in Tropical Depression 2E
NASAs Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2E that revealed high, very cold cloud top temperatures.FULL STORY/WARNINGS:
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 KNHC 040830
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KTGUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KTGUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800ZDISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SPANISH

Depresin Tropical 02E ( TWO -E)

……… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO ……… ( NHC )

( Desplcese HACIA abajo prr la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das de la pista prevista, y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 040831
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT MIRCOLES 04 de junio 2014

… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO …
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
—————-
UBICACIN … 16,2 N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 85 … 140 KM E DE SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——-
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA .
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
———-
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS
ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE .
LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H … Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24
HORAS . EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL DEPRESION CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE
INLAND MS LEJOS .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55
KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES . BORIS SE ESPERA PARA SER
BAJA REMANENTE TARDE HOY .
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
——–
LLUVIA … BORIS SE PREV QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA
Estados mexicanos de Oaxaca y Chiapas . ESTAS LLUVIAS adicionales sern
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE TORMENTA a tanto como 20 PULGADAS …
Especialmente en los terrenos ms altos . ESTAS LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE
RESULTADO EN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO . INFORMES DE
EL SERVICIO DE TIEMPO MEXICANA INDICAN QUE LA CIUDAD DE TONALA EN
LA COSTA DE CHIAPAS RECIBIDO CERCA DE 8.5 PULGADAS … 213 MM … DE LLUVIA
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS .
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
—–
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Centro de Advertencia de Tifones Conjunto ( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

Google Earth Overlay grfico

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TIFN WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) ADVERTENCIA NR 007
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVO CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos en base al promedio de un minuto
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
-
ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :
040600Z – CERCA 16.0N 93.9W
Los movimientos ms all de seis horas – 010 GRADOS A 05 KTS
POSICIN EXACTA EN EL PLAZO DE 040 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
ACTUALIDAD DISTRIBUCIN DE VIENTO :
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 030 KT , KT 040 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
POSIT REPEAT: 16.0N 93.9W
-
Previsiones:
12 HRS , vlido en :
041800Z – 17.0N 93.7W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT , KT 035 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipando COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE TIERRA
VECTOR DE 24 HR POSIT : 010 DEG / 05 KTS
-
24 HRS , vlido en :
050600Z – 18.0N 93.5W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 020 KT , KT 030 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipa como CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE TIERRA
-
OBSERVACIONES:
041000Z POSICIN CERCA 16.3N 93.8W .
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) , ubicado aproximadamente a 79 NM
Este-sureste de Tehuantepec, MEXICO , ha rastreado AT 05 NUDOS
EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.
MXIMA altura de ola significativa AT 040600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 041600Z , 042200Z 050400Z Y .
/ /
NNNN

otro
TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 04 de junio 2014 09:00 GMT

Depresin Tropical BORIS ( 02E ) que actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16,2 N 93,9 W se prev a la huelga de la tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Alerta Amarilla Pas ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es del 70% en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad , o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad .
CAT 1 significa vientos de fuerza de huracn de al menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .
TS significa vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical de por lo menos 39 mph , a 63 km / ho 34 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .

Para obtener informacin de previsin grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Huracn:

E. PACFICO * actualizacin completa * imgenes de la NASA Infrared ve pesado Potencial Lluvia en la depresin tropical 2E
Satlite Aqua de la NASA captur una imagen infrarroja de la depresin tropical 2E que revel altos , top temperatures.FULL HISTORIA nube muy fra / ADVERTENCIAS :
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014
MARTIMO
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 TJSJ 040830
TCMEP2

DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC MIERCOLES 04 de junio 2014

CAMBIOS EN LOS RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSICIN EXACTA dentro de 40 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 4 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos mximos sostenidos de 30 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 40 KT .
VIENTOS Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES son los radios MAYOR SE ESPERA EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE CUADRANTE .

REPETIR … CENTRO LOCALIZADO CERCA 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.0N 93.9W

Pronstico vlido 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS 35 KT .

Pronstico vlido 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS 30 KT .

05/1800Z VLIDO PRONSTICO … DISIPADO
SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DE BUQUES POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 16,2 N 93.9W

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA EN 04/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

PassageWeather es una pgina web de tiempo para navegar GRATIS : http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http % 3A / / http://www.passageweather.com / maps / npacific / mappage.htm

No use cualquier informacin en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte . Toda la informacin se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor refirase a la pgina web la agencia meteorolgica / oficial del gobierno de su pas por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

Socorro/ Clarion/ Mexico: Hurricane AMANDA (CAT3) 271000Z nr 14.2N 112.2W, moving NNW at 4 knots(JTWC) Restrengthens unexpectedly(NHC) – Updated 270514 1108Z

HURRICANE AMANDA (CAT3)

Clarion, Socorro & Mexico beware!

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…(NHC)

(Maritime section always at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ31 KNHC 270845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI…995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

MEXICO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0114.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 271000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270600Z — NEAR 14.0N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 14.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 15.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 15.8N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.4N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 17.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 17.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 112.2W.
HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z
AND 281000Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

AXPZ20 KNHC 270930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 540 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING
NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 08N91W TO 12N103W…AND
FROM 10N114W TO 1009 LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N127W TO 05N133W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W…FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W…AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

…DISCUSSION…
ASIDE FROM THE INTRIGUE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH REGARDS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…TWO AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
EXISTS…ONE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WATERS AND THE OTHER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AMANDA. THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND
THE ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ALONG WITH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WHICH EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL GENERATED
FROM AMANDA. THE MIXED SWELL GENERATES AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W AT 27/0600 UTC THAT
EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO A RANGE OF MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE OTHER
AREA OF SEAS ABOVE 8 FT IS GENERATED FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL COMBINING WITH N-NW SWELL EMANATING FROM AMANDA.

OTHERWISE…AMANDA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 17N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION N OF 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND
116W…VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AMANDA. TO THE NW OF AMANDA…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N125W PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR TO EFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER…THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MOVING IN OVER THE SW CONUS BY THURSDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /

WTPZ21 KNHC 270845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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